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Bernie leads close California race!

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derpmonster

The survey, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, found that among likely Democratic primary voters, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont led with 27%; former vice president Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts followed with 24% and 23%, respectively. The rest of the field remained in the single digits.

In September, a survey conducted for the Los Angeles Times found Warren with a significant lead in California over her rivals. But a December poll showed that Biden and Warren lost ground in the state among likely Democratic primary voters, as Sanders took a small lead.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-01-13/democratic-presidential-race-close-california-sanders-biden-warren

 

It's a very close poll. Imagine if even half of Warren supporters voted for Bernie instead. :flop: A comfortable lead.

 

This is big for the following reasons:

1. This time, California actually matters. It's early on in the primary season.

2. In 2016 primaries, California voted for Hillary Clinton. Bernie was behind in all polls too. This means California is feeling the bern possibly due to new young voters in the past few years and a shift towards more progressive politics. :party:

3. California is NOT a winner-takes-all state, so a big number of delegates is good regardless. California has 495 delegates. To win the nomination uncontested and without superdelegates, one must win 1,991 pledged delegates in total. In short, California is big. :huntyga:

Edited by derpmonster
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ItsTommyBitch

No one is ever leading in a poll unless they are dwarfing their competition several points beyond the MoE, didn't you hear sis? :emma: 

They should really start posting their polls as "X Y Z candidates all got over 20% in this poll!" instead of being specific so that there's no bias from now on :sis: 

私自身もこの世の中も誰もかれもが, どんなに華やかな人生でも, どんなに悲惨な人生でも, いつかは変貌し, 破壊され、消滅してしまう. すべてがもともとこの世に存在しない一瞬の幻想なのだから
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Florin

At this point, it is safe to say that Warren supporters come from a different place than the Bernie ones. Looking at the last 24 hours, she clearly isnt in top 3 because progressive media put her there, so it safe to say that without a direct endorsement from her, Bernie wont get half of Warren votes, if she drops out. 

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derpmonster
26 minutes ago, Florin said:

At this point, it is safe to say that Warren supporters come from a different place than the Bernie ones.

What makes you say so? One of Warren's biggest ideas is Medicare for All (with its terms) and student debt cancellation. It would make the most sense for people who are behind her and hoping for these things to become reality to support Bernie if she drops out as he'd be the only progressive with such ideas left in the race. :shrug: If it's about people's egos, they should put country first.

I'm a Bernie supporter but theoretically if his support suddenly drops and Warren becomes the frontrunner, I'd fully put my support behind her and encourage people to vote for her over Biden.

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Florin
10 minutes ago, derpmonster said:

What makes you say so? One of Warren's biggest ideas is Medicare for All (with its terms) and student debt cancellation. It would make the most sense for people who are behind her and hoping for these things to become reality to support Bernie if she drops out as he'd be the only progressive with such ideas left in the race. :shrug: If it's about people's egos, they should put country first.

I'm a Bernie supporter but theoretically if his support suddenly drops and Warren becomes the frontrunner, I'd fully put my support behind her and encourage people to vote for her over Biden.

I explain it. It is somehow shocking that in the last 24 hours I didnt see one progressive comentator taking Warren side in that mini Bernie Warren scandal.

That means that Warren support comes from somewhere else. They may like some progressives ideas, but it is her record, maybe her gender, maybe other things that makes them support her. And that means that unlike Bernie supporters, they have more than one option if she drops out. 

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Guillaume Hamon

Great polls for him again?

Now wait for a " Sanders would have said something controversial about LGBT people "  rumor.

A rumor that can't be proved but anyway some folks on GGD will call it a "fact" and say it's actually "very revealing of him that he said that" etc...

:ally::ally:

 

Spoiler

Gosh if he actually get the lead that's gonna be a string of awful things he did which will suddenly "get revealed" out of nowhere with no proof to back it up +  plenty of contexts that will be lacking while discussing him.

 

Edited by Guillaume Hamon
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ItsTommyBitch
38 minutes ago, Florin said:

I explain it. It is somehow shocking that in the last 24 hours I didnt see one progressive comentator taking Warren side in that mini Bernie Warren scandal.

That means that Warren support comes from somewhere else. They may like some progressives ideas, but it is her record, maybe her gender, maybe other things that makes them support her. And that means that unlike Bernie supporters, they have more than one option if she drops out. 

I shouldn't have to say this, but your anecdotal experience does not explain either the majority of people's realities, or anywhere near so :shrug: There are millions of people supporting Elizabeth Warren for a myriad of reasons, same with Bernie Sanders.

There are progressives who like Warren because they are just not as far left as other progressives, and who think her ideas might be able to more likely become laws because she isn't as radical as he is. There are progressives who like Warren quite frankly because they think that the DNC will screw Bernie over again like they did in 2016, so they see her as having a better chance of winning the nomination. There are progressives who like Warren because they are #woke and understand the point of social justice, etc. but they think Bernie is somewhat bad on race issues, gender issues, etc. and that Warren, who has made these things very prominent in her campaign, is a better choice for those reasons even if she's not as Progressive as they want on other issues. The list goes on and on.

I disagree with all of these, and actually believe these are pretty *bad* takes on the state of things somewhat verifiably, but they are nonetheless valid and true reasons that people say for supporting Warren.

All of those people stand to question their support for Warren after this incident. Thus, Warren, the progressive, would die and her campaign would be over. What remains would be #VoteBlueNoMatterWho people who actually don't care about her progressive ideas like a wealth tax, health care reform, green + blue new deal, etc, but bare minimum supporters who just want a Woman President, anyone but Joe Biden because hes too conservative, etc.

Warren's entire campaign has been about "Big, Structural Change"

She ceases to be that candidate if she alienates all of her supporters that believe in "Big Structural Change" because, as you say, she is not a first pick anymore. Those people that don't want "Big Structural Change" that badly will be just as happy under a Joe Biden presidency as hers, and all they have to do is hear CNN keep screaming that Joe Biden is the most electable candidate in order to leave her.

So, this whole thing actually helps Joe Biden, and not her.

We'll see how it plays out somewhat delayed because of the timing + debate and what not, but even if she is able to take some support from Sanders, this essentially provides Joe Biden with a smokescreen to come out as the true "unity" candidate because the Progressives are just children fighting amongst themselves, and this bolsters his chances.

If Warren, the individual, believes in Big Structural Change - getting corruption out of politics, getting corporate interests out of the Democratic party, like she says she does - its her whole message and reason for running, then this decision will work against her want for those things. She is sacrificing values for political points. And if I were still a Warren supporter, I would be very worried for her political future in this primary and beyond given the last 2 months of how she has played the game.

私自身もこの世の中も誰もかれもが, どんなに華やかな人生でも, どんなに悲惨な人生でも, いつかは変貌し, 破壊され、消滅してしまう. すべてがもともとこの世に存在しない一瞬の幻想なのだから
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Lilmonzter

Polls don't pay dividend to the Bernie Sanders support. Mostly the participants for the polls are usually in a certain mature age category while Bernie pulls in major support from ages 18-39. Which is kinda unaccounted. 

It happened in the last election with HRC too. Many of the places she polled better in Bernie kinda gave her a run for her money. And lost some places with razer thin margins

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derpmonster
2 hours ago, Florin said:

I explain it. It is somehow shocking that in the last 24 hours I didnt see one progressive comentator taking Warren side in that mini Bernie Warren scandal.

That means that Warren support comes from somewhere else. They may like some progressives ideas, but it is her record, maybe her gender, maybe other things that makes them support her. And that means that unlike Bernie supporters, they have more than one option if she drops out. 

But GGD and social media aren't necessarily representative of why the GP votes for Bernie or for Warren.

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Florin
1 hour ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

I shouldn't have to say this, but your anecdotal experience does not explain either the majority of people's realities, or anywhere near so :shrug: There are millions of people supporting Elizabeth Warren for a myriad of reasons, same with Bernie Sanders.

There are progressives who like Warren because they are just not as far left as other progressives, and who think her ideas might be able to more likely become laws because she isn't as radical as he is. There are progressives who like Warren quite frankly because they think that the DNC will screw Bernie over again like they did in 2016, so they see her as having a better chance of winning the nomination. There are progressives who like Warren because they are #woke and understand the point of social justice, etc. but they think Bernie is somewhat bad on race issues, gender issues, etc. and that Warren, who has made these things very prominent in her campaign, is a better choice for those reasons even if she's not as Progressive as they want on other issues. The list goes on and on.

I disagree with all of these, and actually believe these are pretty *bad* takes on the state of things somewhat verifiably, but they are nonetheless valid and true reasons that people say for supporting Warren.

All of those people stand to question their support for Warren after this incident. Thus, Warren, the progressive, would die and her campaign would be over. What remains would be #VoteBlueNoMatterWho people who actually don't care about her progressive ideas like a wealth tax, health care reform, green + blue new deal, etc, but bare minimum supporters who just want a Woman President, anyone but Joe Biden because hes too conservative, etc.

Warren's entire campaign has been about "Big, Structural Change"

She ceases to be that candidate if she alienates all of her supporters that believe in "Big Structural Change" because, as you say, she is not a first pick anymore. Those people that don't want "Big Structural Change" that badly will be just as happy under a Joe Biden presidency as hers, and all they have to do is hear CNN keep screaming that Joe Biden is the most electable candidate in order to leave her.

So, this whole thing actually helps Joe Biden, and not her.

We'll see how it plays out somewhat delayed because of the timing + debate and what not, but even if she is able to take some support from Sanders, this essentially provides Joe Biden with a smokescreen to come out as the true "unity" candidate because the Progressives are just children fighting amongst themselves, and this bolsters his chances.

If Warren, the individual, believes in Big Structural Change - getting corruption out of politics, getting corporate interests out of the Democratic party, like she says she does - its her whole message and reason for running, then this decision will work against her want for those things. She is sacrificing values for political points. And if I were still a Warren supporter, I would be very worried for her political future in this primary and beyond given the last 2 months of how she has played the game.

You saw the "other things" part in my comment? 

No matter how you want to put it, Bernie has attracted all hardcore progressives. If he drops, most of them would go to Warren.

However, as even you say, the reasons why people go for Warren are more diverse, so if she drops out, her voters will have more options.  Of course, it depends  on when any ot these situations will happen. It will be different if any of them drops out in March and it will be something different in June. 

The rest of your comment makes sense only if you are an hardcore Bernie supporter. If not, all gets debatable. You are willing to put in Warren back everything that may hurt Bernie and yet if we go back to 2016 to look at how some Bernie actions influenced the elections, the discussions will go crazy and I'm gonna be attacked with comments like " only Hillary is to blame".

Well, if "only Hillary was to blame", then I'm 100% sure that "only Bernie is to blame" for him losing the nomination, if that happens. Live with what you preach, people. 

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Florin
12 minutes ago, derpmonster said:

But GGD and social media aren't necessarily representative of why the GP votes for Bernie or for Warren.

I am not talking about ggd commentators or random people from social media, but about progressives journalists, if you want to call them that. I didnt see anyone defending Warren, even if it is a situation when only 2 people can know the truth. 

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PoshLife

OP, the rising feud between Warren and Sanders has made any hope Sanders has of capturing Warren's base of support next to impossible. Besides this whole "Warren's supporters should just vote for Sanders" argument being completely nonsensical in the first place (no, they're not the same person, and no Sanders is not inherently the candidate people should flock to just because YOU like him more - remember when Warren was the clear front-runner for most of the fall?), if I was a Warren supporter I would be pretty disgusted with Sanders right now. This week's news makes me feel certain she'll stay in the race until at least early April - if I were her, I wouldn't want to drop out early and help him, either.

Polls of California have been going back and forth between showing Biden in the lead and Sanders in the lead, usually modestly, since November. I know GGD's Bernie supporters like to get excited when they see Sanders up in a poll since it's pretty rare outside of the early voting states, but those are the facts.

As you all know by now, states award their delegates proportionally to any candidate who gets at least 15% of the vote. It is extremely unlikely that California will change the trajectory of the race, particularly given that it votes on Super Tuesday when a whole heck of a lot of delegates are at stake in other states, too. Biden, for example, will probably do extremely well in the south (Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, North Carolina) while Warren will likely win Massachusetts. 

Edited by PoshLife
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ItsTommyBitch
3 minutes ago, Florin said:

You saw the "other things" part in my comment? 

No matter how you want to put it, Bernie has attracted all hardcore progressives. If he drops, most of them would go to Warren.

However, as even you say, the reasons why people go for Warren are more diverse, so if she drops out, her voters will have more options.  Of course, it depends  on when any ot these situations will happen. It will be different if any of them drops out in March and it will be something different in June. 

The rest of your comment makes sense only if you are an hardcore Bernie supporter. If not, all gets debatable. You are willing to put in Warren back everything that may hurt Bernie and yet if we go back to 2016 to look at how some Bernie actions influenced the elections, the discussions will go crazy and I'm gonna be attacked with comments like " only Hillary is to blame".

Well, if "only Hillary was to blame", then I'm 100% sure that "only Bernie is to blame" for him losing the nomination, if that happens. Live with what you preach, people. 

I am simply saying that if many people are supporting a woman whose entire campaign is about being a progressive who believes in "big structural change" and taking on corruption in government for reasons other than that, that is a bad sign for at least part of that campaign - It means their core message isn't reaching the people that it needs to reach - people that care about corruption in government and who want structural change. Warren is running because she believes that enough people care about these issues to make political change happen to fix these issues. That's it, at least on the surface.

I would make the somewhat informed guess that this is because the people who tend to care about this issue deeply and personally are the multi-racial working class as well as the majority of the millennial generation - people who were screwed over by very late Bush-Obama era economic policies and who to this day have both still not recovered and whose lives financially are predicted to be worse than their Parent's generation significantly.

Occupy Wall Street was not a protest of 65+ year old already likely Democratic Voters who will vote for whoever the nominee is, it was young people and middle aged people who were directly affected by it :emma: Unfortunately for Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders is running a campaign about meeting the needs and wishes of the multi-racial working class and young people - the exact people who are most susceptible to "we need big structural change messaging." Her campaigned struggled to give a strong alternative argument and therefore failed to ignite a grassroots movement of support across a broad demographic of supporters. It's just a fact.

This is where we're not agreeing: The fact that voters who aren't with Warren because she claims to be a progressive would have similar comfort with Joe Biden is not a *good* thing because it means that the reasons Warren is running will not be addressed. That is why Bernie people are sometimes seen as "Bernie or Bust" - It is not that if Bernie loses, there is no other "Bernie Sanders" its that there is no other Medicare For All, Fully invest in the Green New Deal from Day 1, Abolish ICE, make a 5 year path to citizenship and put a moratorium on Deportations and reunite families separated at the border, end at will employment, propose an amendment to overturn Citizen's United, Guarantee Housing to people, make National Rent control candidate. If Bernie loses, these ideas lose. If Warren loses, those ideas live on in Bernie. And those ideas are the entire reason people support him. If Bernie was a consistent politician who made some lonely votes but had come out and said "I support a Public Option and just lowering prices, a Carbon Tax, just talking about corruption reform, reforming ICE but allowing it to stay, continuing Deportations, Not guaranteeing Housing, Not making National Rent Control, and continuing to take money from wealthy donors and corporations..." he just flat out wouldn't have been popular or gained nearly any traction in 2015-2016 :shrug: 

Anyway, after this, I wouldn't be surprised if Warren endorses Joe Biden before the Primary is over actually, and that would forever end her high approval in Progressive circles, and its not like moderates are foaming at the mouth to unite behind Elizabeth Warren either so idk where she goes from there :deadbanana: 

私自身もこの世の中も誰もかれもが, どんなに華やかな人生でも, どんなに悲惨な人生でも, いつかは変貌し, 破壊され、消滅してしまう. すべてがもともとこの世に存在しない一瞬の幻想なのだから
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ItsTommyBitch
37 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

OP, the rising feud between Warren and Sanders has made any hope Sanders has of capturing Warren's base of support next to impossible. Besides this whole "Warren's supporters should just vote for Sanders" argument being completely nonsensical in the first place (no, they're not the same person, and no Sanders is not inherently the candidate people should flock to just because YOU like him more - remember when Warren was the clear front-runner for most of the fall?), if I was a Warren supporter I would be pretty disgusted with Sanders right now. This week's news makes me feel certain she'll stay in the race until at least early April - if I were her, I wouldn't want to drop out early and help him, either.

Polls of California have been going back and forth between showing Biden in the lead and Sanders in the lead, usually modestly, since November. I know GGD's Bernie supporters like to get excited when they see Sanders up in a poll since it's pretty rare outside of the early voting states, but those are the facts.

As you all know by now, states award their delegates proportionally to any candidate who gets at least 15% of the vote. It is extremely unlikely that California will change the trajectory of the race, particularly given that it votes on Super Tuesday when a whole heck of a lot of delegates are at stake in other states, too. Biden, for example, will probably do extremely well in the south (Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, North Carolina) while Warren will likely win Massachusetts. 

I'm sorry, but this is absolute nonsense.

If people are going to move candidates, people who like Warren would flock to Bernie because they are the most similar ideologically in terms of their vision for America and what policies they want implemented under their administrations. It's not that complicated. If your biggest thing is Climate Change, the only other candidate who has an aggressive plan to combat Climate Change is Bernie Sanders. If you want a significant wealth tax to pay for universal programs, the only other person proposing that is Bernie Sanders. If you want Universal Childcare, Universal Pre-K, paid parental leave, etc... In many if not all of these examples, of which there are MANY other *I got a plan for that moments* from Warren, Bernie Sanders just happens to be the only other candidate that supports these ideas beyond saying "They are good ideas" - that's not something I point out because I like him, its just the truth. Joe Biden just simply *does not* support things like the Green New Deal, or making Public College Tuition Free :shrug: So, if those are things you as a voter care about, then yes, Bernie Sanders is simply your *best* second option.

There's nothing personal about any of what I've just said, its not because I like him or whatever, You're entirely projecting this reasoning here :rip: I'm just being reasonable. If I want a wealth tax in America and that's why I support Warren, it would make no sense for me to go to support Buttigieg or Biden or Klobuchar instead of Bernie.

As a former Warren supporter and someone who has supported her much longer than I have supported Bernie Sanders, going back to 09,  I am disgusted and disappointed to see that she has resorted to the exact petty below the belt politics that puts personal gain over the actual things people want - the things that she claims to be running to defeat in the first place. It has made me re-think all of the times people told me that I was being too soft on her as she wavered in support for M4A, when she endorsed Hillary in 2016, etc. I have donated to her campaign several times, and I got a refund yesterday because I was so disappointed in how she and her campaign have behaved. I stopped my email subscription to her campaign, I stopped liking her pages on social media, I can't even look at my Billionaire's Tears mug gleefully anymore.

But that's just my experience. Why should either yours or mine be seen as definitive, the fact that we have different experiences is all the evidence we need to know that both situations are possible and valid.

Edited by ItsTommyBitch
私自身もこの世の中も誰もかれもが, どんなに華やかな人生でも, どんなに悲惨な人生でも, いつかは変貌し, 破壊され、消滅してしまう. すべてがもともとこの世に存在しない一瞬の幻想なのだから
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Guillaume Hamon
5 hours ago, PoshLife said:

OP, the rising feud between Warren and Sanders has made any hope Sanders has of capturing Warren's base of support next to impossible.

You think they will all believe the "warren script" even if there's no proof sanders pushed for it?

Spoiler

Many were even saying it was debunked so maybe it is but I didn't loo for that yet

 

5 hours ago, PoshLife said:

if I was a Warren supporter I would be pretty disgusted with Sanders right now. This week's news makes me feel certain she'll stay in the race until at least early April 

Why do you say it like if it was a fact when it's, at the very least, not proven?..

Why do you consider a fact something that could be just slander on Sanders? Folks who won't see him win seem to do that very often on this site...

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