Economy 52,845 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 https://onezero.medium.com/by-the-end-of-this-century-the-global-population-will-start-to-shrink-2f606c1ef088 Demographers projections now put Earths population peak at approximately 9 Billion between 2040 and 2060 After 2060 Earths population is forecast to enter terminal decline. By 2100 Earths population will be back down to where it is now Africa is the only continent forecast to have more births than deaths as early as next decade. By next decade Europe (already peaking now), Asia, North America, South America and Australia will all have more deaths than births Some low birth Countries may still have population growth due to net positive immigration (like Canada, USA, UK, Australia etc) but not by natural domestic increase Some Countries like Italy, Germany and Japan face population declines EVEN with immigration. Japan is the Country in the world with the oldest demographics and fastest declining population already loosing half a million annually and accelerating Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brooke Hoegan 1,018 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Well, but is it really bad that our population will start to decline ? We already started to really damage the Earth to the point of no return... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
dit 46,738 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Not as bad as I thot! Capping at 9 billion is pretty great imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabeoz 7,915 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Not surprising. Modernization indirectly affects population growth as couples no longer see financial gain in having children, as well as the open availability to several forms of birth control. (Kinda ironic how industrialization and the need for labor/post war booming economies created a massive population spike that is now going down by being too industrialized) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gypsy 3,826 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 This is great news! If only it was sooner, the decline Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
roy 1,216 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 goodbye boomers who can't stand a "slur" rah rah rah rah Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,845 Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brooke Hoegan said: Well, but is it really bad that our population will start to decline ? We already started to really damage the Earth to the point of no return... 1 minute ago, dit said: Not as bad as I thot! Capping at 9 billion is pretty great imo. For the environment its good economically its a different story. Our economic system and our business and investment model is based on growth and expansion... a shrinking population and falling demand will be tough to deal with Japan has had very serious economic and financial issues for many years because of it Japan is decades ahead of the rest of the world in the ageing trend so what happens there now is a good reflection of what will happen everywhere else One phenomena they deal with on and off as a result of shrinking population and demand is the concept of deflation often their money gains value and the cost of things fall. They often get pay cuts as an adjustment instead of pay raises. Its the only Country where this happens it might sound appealing but it makes money dead investment. People and institutions hoard money as a form of investment because it gains purchasing power at no risk so why invest in bonds or stocks? They have a lot of dead capital not being put to use or being spent and the economy doesnt invest. From a financial standpoint they have the highest government debt in the world (230% of GDP) as a really old population has resulted in astronomical healthcare costs, old age security costs, pension costs and fewer workers paying taxes Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,845 Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Gypsy said: This is great news! If only it was sooner, the decline Well see... developed nations (that have only like 20% of the world population) are responsible for most of consumption and ecological footprint the issue isnt 7 billion ppl... its that a fraction of the 7 billion consume too much as developing world industrializes and catches up to developed world... we may find that consumption will still rise with a falling population Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gagz4Gaga 7,278 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Currently, 7-billion people and I couldn’t find a decent guy to date. nostalgia’s for geeks Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,845 Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, gabeoz said: Not surprising. Modernization indirectly affects population growth as couples no longer see financial gain in having children, as well as the open availability to several forms of birth control. (Kinda ironic how industrialization and the need for labor/post war booming economies created a massive population spike that is now going down by being too industrialized) What would be interesting is if sometimes later we find ways to slow ageing and after decline we start to go up again multiple peaks and drops like the stock market Anyway the population spike (excluding the boomers) was caused by people living longer and infant mortality dropping. Longer survival rates increased population But longer life expectancy only increases population for a time if the birth rate doesnt rise... cuz ppl living longer still get old and die eventually and in most countries the birth rate per woman has already dropped below the replacement rate which means the moment the boomers group starts to die, deaths will ecceed births in most countries Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melech 9,900 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 38 minutes ago, Economy said: Some Countries like Italy, Germany and Japan face population declines EVEN with immigration That’s what they said years ago and yet Germany is still growing Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 52,845 Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Melech said: That’s what they said years ago and yet Germany is still growing Yeah... because it hasnt come yet it will be another 10-15 years before death rates really accelerate from the big boomer group so until then dont throw flowers yet i know this is expected because Germany has one of the very oldest population demographics along with Portugal, Italy and of course the master of old people, Japan For Germany to offset natural decline in a few years time, ull require a long term higher acceptance of immigrants than Germany has generally taken in (excluding recent years where it spiked unusually high due to refugee crisis causing short term aberations) Based on what i read last year Germany only increased 0.06% so ur already in stagnation and the boomers arent even dying yet Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindblown 6,744 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Go green, start a plague. Spoiler think about it.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
imnotyourbabe10 6,120 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Interesting numbers. Since climate change is already on course for destruction of the planet (and we haven't slowed it down or reacted quickly enough, in my understanding), I wonder how this growing population will be affected. I know most of us are doing our part but I feel awful for children being brought into this literal climate as well as the socio-historical-political-economic climate. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaume 1,282 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Economy said: For the environment its good economically its a different story. Our economic system and our business and investment model is based on growth and expansion... a shrinking population and falling demand will be tough to deal with Japan has had very serious economic and financial issues for many years because of it Japan is decades ahead of the rest of the world in the ageing trend so what happens there now is a good reflection of what will happen everywhere else One phenomena they deal with on and off as a result of shrinking population and demand is the concept of deflation often their money gains value and the cost of things fall. They often get pay cuts as an adjustment instead of pay raises. Its the only Country where this happens it might sound appealing but it makes money dead investment. People and institutions hoard money as a form of investment because it gains purchasing power at no risk so why invest in bonds or stocks? They have a lot of dead capital not being put to use or being spent and the economy doesnt invest. From a financial standpoint they have the highest government debt in the world (230% of GDP) as a really old population has resulted in astronomical healthcare costs, old age security costs, pension costs and fewer workers paying taxes Japan is a mess when it comes to her society. Culture wise it is very attractive but other than that... they dont treat women fair enough, they are obsessed with work, they are so racist, they are too consevative, they dont express themselves in many ways... urgh, too many restrictions. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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