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USA Today/Suffolk Poll: Buttigieg Gets an Iowa Boost After Strong Debate

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ItsTommyBitch

@HybridAT

You can laugh react all you want, I'm not making up his polling numbers or anything.

Of all the top candidates based on their current support trends, hes the only one who is certain to lose to Trump as of now. You cannot win the general election without minority support and middle working class support (across all races). The numbers aren't there. Bernie however does have massive minority and working class support, even if he isnt in a good spot to win Iowa. Bernie has the 2nd best support with African American voters for a reason and there's not a strong reason to believe black voters won't gravitate towards Bernie or Warren, both of which have better odds of winning the nomination overall than Buttigieg and better odds in the general as well.

Buttigieg is NOT Obama. Obama was seen as likely to lose to Hillary and black voters were cautious to vote for him because they didn't think a black man could win the nomination or the presidency, but his winning in Iowa and well placed campaigning, advertising, endorsements, etc. all fortuitously led to them rallying behind him in large numbers.

That's not Pete Buttigieg. He has around 0% of AA voters right now, with Biden holding the majority of older AA voters and Bernie younger AA voters. Younger AA voters tend to vote similarly to college aged white voters - which means they lean progressive or center left and their current support is basically concentrated around Bernie and Warren. Older AA voters do lean more centrist, but they also lean towards who is most electable, and if Biden is out, the case can be made that its Warren or (less likely) Bernie.

Biden losing Iowa to Buttigieg wouldn't make Bernie or Warren hemorrhage their AA support, so I don't see it likely at all that he would suddenly become the AA first pick or even 3rd pick (if Harris is still running).

Plus there is still scandal about his handling of things in South Bend that have yet to be resolved. He isn't out of the water on that issue yet. 

I agree he has a decent agenda for black voters, but good luck convincing them of that right now in this crowded field.

I think its much more likely that Biden maintains his other leads and eeks out the nomination away from Elizabeth Warren, and that's a nightmare scenario.

Its just my opinion/observation, but we're doing too much with this poll. He could win Iowa. I hope he doesn't because he doesn't seem to be in a position to rocket to the top even if he does win and that just hurts Bernie/Elizabeth's odds of winning, both of which have better agendas and more fleshed out policy

私自身もこの世の中も誰もかれもが, どんなに華やかな人生でも, どんなに悲惨な人生でも, いつかは変貌し, 破壊され、消滅してしまう. すべてがもともとこの世に存在しない一瞬の幻想なのだから
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LateToCult
2 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

Don't you think if he wins/finishes top 3 in both Iowa and NH, Biden's black support may swing towards him? Minority voters want to see a viable nominee. If he finishes high in both, imo, he can peel off some of Biden's support. He also has a very strong black agenda. I'm waiting to see how his black support shifts within the next few months. The race is getting exciting.

And let's be honest, he's probably the only one best positioned to take his moderate support.

But no doubt, South Carolina is Biden's firewall.

He’s still very weak nationally so I can’t be sure if that kind of scenario would draw enough dem, black voters to him.

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Arturo

1. I think it’s super important to note that 29% of caucusgoers are undecided with 3.5 months to go until February 3rd

2. I don’t think Buttigieg did well in the debate. He hasn’t distinguished himself from anything other than a young Biden-lite moderate with no clear vision in how to lead other than “People in the mid-west are TIRED of washington politics” like ok? People in the midwest also voted for Trump and his corruption has been far worse than any corporate democrat.

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PartySick
36 minutes ago, FATCAT said:

I mean he's swiping support from Biden, so that's good

This :gayhat:

Pete's better than Biden imo but we still need either Warren or Sanders.

#KeepAmericaGreatAgain 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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Arturo

Anyways, I believe there are only 2 more debates until Iowa.

November 15th’s debate in Georgie

and then January’s unscheduled debate.

With November’s debate looking to cut the candidates from 12 to at between 9 and 10 (Right now only 8 qualify) there’s plenty of time for reshuffling. 

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HybridAT
5 minutes ago, Buddy said:

No thanks. He wants to make military service mandatory.

Um wtf? Do you have a source for that or just made it up?

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JusKeepBreathin

I knew this would happen. I still don't understand people on GGD who think Bernie is a good debator. He just isn't that good in a debate. He's never really had a strong performance. And that AOC endorsement is the nail in the coffin. She is too polarizing. It will probably make people less likely to vote for him. Bernie has a stronger message of unity than she does and she makes that message less believable. 

Edited by JusKeepBreathin
"Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." -Martin Luther King Jr.
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hankhatesyouall

Yes, daddy. 

You can capture me. 

2 hours ago, SEANGT said:

i can't believe i'm rooting against the first gay presidential candidate SO hard. People saw what he did as GOOD in that debate? I hate America sometimes. 

Yes, we can totally believe that you are rooting against the first gay president because a) he's not a stereotypical yasss queen gay and b) he's not a far-left Marxist insurgent who wants to turn America into a socialist hellhole. 

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SKANK
1 hour ago, Buddy said:

No thanks. He wants to make military service mandatory.

 

I think you are confusing the draft with National Service.

Pete supports expanding National Service. National Service could mean building houses, planting trees, working with the red Red Cross or Peace Corps. It could be working in public schools or hospitals. It just means spending a specific amount of time in service to your country.

Elizabeth Warren supports the exact same thing.

 

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ItsTommyBitch
8 hours ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

I knew this would happen. I still don't understand people on GGD who think Bernie is a good debator. He just isn't that good in a debate. He's never really had a strong performance. And that AOC endorsement is the nail in the coffin. She is too polarizing. It will probably make people less likely to vote for him. Bernie has a stronger message of unity than she does and she makes that message less believable. 

Bernie is just so-so as a debater - he can always hold his own and defend his own ideas and policies well, but hes not necessarily looking to make quippy punch lines that will break headlines like most of the other people on the stage (Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, O'Rourke). People that care about not only ideology but policy tend to see Bernie as the winner in the debates, or top tier because of that. He's never been attacked and unable to defend anything and looked weak, but he has had good to great moments of calling out other people and standing by his amazing record. Buttigieg is a smooth talker, but his campaign has quite literally been built on platitudes and he only just recently started putting out actual policy proposals compared to the Warren and Sanders camp. Even Harris had concrete policy proposals first :shrug: 

He should be more aggressive to Warren and others to make stronger distinctions - and he has increased this strategy as of late, but it could be more.

That being said, AOC is polarizing amongst Registered Republicans, not Democrats and Independents. She has a very low approval rating with Republicans because of the vast "AOC is an evil socialist who thinks having children should be illegal and wants to turn America into venezuela!" smear campaign by the Right. Ofc its unfounded but who cares when youre a conservative :laughga:

Anyway, she has a net positive approval rating from Democrats, factoring people that don't know who she is. And Bernie and Warren are not trying to capture the republican base, its an unreliable strategy. Registered Republicans already think Bernie is a crazy old socialist and they have no interest in voting for him OR Warren. Even "Never Trump" republicans would rather vote for Biden or Harris or Buttigieg. Independents on the other hand literally bend over backwards for Bernie more than any candidate in recent history, and Liberal to Progressive people, especially women LOVE AOC. I'm not where you're getting that Bernie's message of "unity" is weakened by being endorsed by an example of a woman who was entirely elected without corporate interests and money and  who has stuck by her guts and represented her district with integrity...

And the Endorsement was not necessarily about political calculation in the first place :shrug: She didn't time it to give him a huge poll boost or whatever. Though it does send a message to progressives about unity.

Edited by ItsTommyBitch
私自身もこの世の中も誰もかれもが, どんなに華やかな人生でも, どんなに悲惨な人生でも, いつかは変貌し, 破壊され、消滅してしまう. すべてがもともとこの世に存在しない一瞬の幻想なのだから

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En_Sabah_Nur

Yassssssssssssssss for my MAJOR!  I’m rooting for him and Warren!  :excited:

My step-sister(his personal secretary) & Major Pete Buttigieg.... 😁👌🏾
 

18620252_1555345774484738_44579730843156

71927208_2802428879776415_69200088257936

 

Egypt. W
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Lilmonzter

Pete Buttigieg is a media darling right now but I expect that is the reason why he is 3rd in the polls right now.

He has flipped on many issues between his start and now, He has close to 0% support from the African American communities and that'll be his downfall.

I want a Bernie Sanders/Andrew Yang run

Veni Vidi Amavi

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HybridAT
2 hours ago, En_Sabah_Nur said:

Yassssssssssssssss for my MAJOR!  I’m rooting for him and Warren!  :excited:

My step-sister(his personal secretary) & Major Pete Buttigieg.... 😁👌🏾
 

18620252_1555345774484738_44579730843156

71927208_2802428879776415_69200088257936

 

This is sooo amazing to see   :sara:

What's her name? I know Kareemah Fowhler and Laura O'Sullivan from his staff. You must be knowing them right?

 I've gotten to know a lot about South Bend through Pete's campaign and connecting with SB residents that are some of the most amazing folks ever.  South Bend truly is a special place.  :heart:

Edited by HybridAT
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En_Sabah_Nur
2 hours ago, HybridAT said:

This is sooo amazing to see   :sara:

What's her name? I know Kareemah Fowhler and Laura O'Sullivan from his staff. You must be knowing them right?

 I've gotten to know a lot about South Bend through Pete's campaign and connecting with SB residents that are some of the most amazing folks ever.  South Bend truly is a special place.  :heart:

Oh wow you have???!  That is so kool to hear & yes South Bend has it’s ups & downs. But it is Most DEFINITELY one of the better Midwestern cities - lol  Most people in my town love Major Pete!  My step sister’s name is Shalon Davis & she has been working for him since he became mayor actually. 😊👍🏾
 

P.S. I don’t know them actually, I will have to ask her next time I speak to her. I haven’t met the major as of yet, but my father & step-mom have many times tho... 😇👌🏾

Edited by En_Sabah_Nur
Egypt. W
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