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USA Today/Suffolk Poll: Buttigieg Gets an Iowa Boost After Strong Debate

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HybridAT

You can never underestimate the value of a political debate. Just ask South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who recently passed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on his way to third place in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses. Buttigieg has vaulted himself into the top tier of candidates on the back of a convincing debate performance, according to today’s Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll of 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers.

Here’s where the race stands in Iowa: Former Vice President Joe Biden (19%) leads Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (18%), with Buttigieg capturing 13%, Sanders receiving 9%, and billionaire Tom Steyer, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and California Sen. Kamala Harris all tied at 3%. A considerable 29% of likely Democratic caucusgoers remain undecided. 

Even more impressive for Buttigieg is how those who watched the CNN/New York Times debate last week would align their support if the caucuses were held today. Among only debate watchers, Buttigieg topped the entire Iowa field with 19%, followed by Biden and Warren (tied at 17%), Sanders (9%), and Klobuchar (6%). Both Buttigieg (39%) and Klobuchar (28%) were seen as debate winners last week.

Buttigieg appears to be getting some traction in his age category when compared to the septuagenarians in the top tier. In the poll, Buttigieg (16%) led Warren (15%), Biden (13%), and Sanders (8%) among Iowans ages 36-55 years.

If the economy becomes a central issue in the presidential race, the Suffolk/USA TODAY poll reveals that Buttigieg may also have an edge. Among Democratic caucusgoers who said the economy is the most important issue affecting their support, Buttigieg topped the field yet again with 20%, followed by Biden and Warren, tied at 11%.

In the meantime, Buttigieg is one of the two top second choices among all the candidates. Both Warren (22%) and Buttigieg (14%) led in this important category. It is a key metric in Iowa, where caucusgoers whose candidate’s support is below 15% at their caucus location must choose another candidate.

The big wildcard is how (and how many) independents (“no party”) will end up caucusing as Democrats, once they’ve changed party registration prior to the caucus. With no competitive Republican caucus, independents in Iowa may wish to be counted in the Democratic caucus. In the poll, Buttigieg was tied with Biden (13%), with Warren (7%) and Sanders (5%) trailing. A whopping 40% of independents were undecided, despite declaring their intention to participate in the Democratic caucus in the poll.

Link: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/10/21/pete-buttigieg-debate-performance-boosts-him-iowa/4047459002/

With this, Pete is now tied with Bernie in RCP avg in Iowa, within single digits of both Warren and Biden.

Yaass Pete! Let's go!

 

Edited by HybridAT
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SEANGT

i can't believe i'm rooting against the first gay presidential candidate SO hard. People saw what he did as GOOD in that debate? I hate America sometimes. 

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FATCAT
12 minutes ago, SEANGT said:

i can't believe i'm rooting against the first gay presidential candidate SO hard. People saw what he did as GOOD in that debate? I hate America sometimes. 

I mean he's swiping support from Biden, so that's good

█▓█▓█▓█▓█▓█▓█▓█▓ This püssy grabs back. █▓█▓█▓█▓█▓█▓█▓█▓
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HybridAT
4 minutes ago, SEANGT said:

i can't believe i'm rooting against the first gay presidential candidate SO hard. People saw what he did as GOOD in that debate? I hate America sometimes. 

He must have done something effective when he exposed the multi-trillion dollar hole within her plan, which caused her to release her financing specifics for her healthcare plan in the next few weeks? 

And 538 in their post debate poll analysis showed he gained the most ground amongst people who thought he could beat Trump and also an increase in favorability ratings.

"Buttigieg got the biggest increase — 4.5 points — in the share of likely Democratic primary voters who are considering supporting him. Klobuchar and Warren also got meaningful bumps, gaining 3.6 points and 2.6 points, respectively."

"Klobuchar and Buttigeg saw the largest jumps in net favorability (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) — 3.2 points and 2.6 points, respectively. And among the polling front-runners, both Warren and Sanders’s net favorability ratings improved by more than 2 points"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-october-poll/

"Outside of the top tier, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, saw the largest jump, gaining more than 5 percentage points among voters who prioritize beating Trump"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/issues-voters-see-the-race-differently-from-those-who-prioritize-beating-trump/

He was also unanimously declared one of the winners by multiple media publications saying he either had a strong night or that he had a breakout performance. So yeah, seems like it paid off for him. 

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corvus albus

Just remember that Harris also had a big boost once after a debate but she's not very relevant anymore, now is she? Same can happen to Mayonnaise :trollga:

Standing Still
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LateToCult

Yeah, that makes sense. Lots of people on here (including myself) dismiss him because his views don’t align with ours but he’s well spoken, comes off as intelligent, and he’s placed himself as a “safe” option.

Edited by LateToCult
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HybridAT
Just now, corvus albus said:

Just remember that Harris also had a big boost once after a debate but she's not very relevant anymore, now is she? Same can happen to Mayonnaise :trollga:

It's because she didn't have the infrastructure in place to sustain. That's not the case with Pete. Also, Mayonnaise. How mature 🙄 just say you're not happy with this poll and move on.

"Buttigieg may follow in the footsteps of Harris’ summer swoon, but his campaign is now touting that he has more campaign offices in the state of Iowa than any other Democratic hopeful. It’s hard to say whether Buttigieg’s recent upward move in our poll is due more to his debate performance or his newly formed widespread field presence in Iowa."

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SEANGT
2 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

He must have done something effective when he exposed the multi-trillion dollar hole within her plan, which caused her to release her financing specifics for her healthcare plan in the next few weeks? 

And 538 in their post debate poll analysis showed he gained the most ground amongst people who thought he could beat Trump and also an increase in favorability ratings.

"Buttigieg got the biggest increase — 4.5 points — in the share of likely Democratic primary voters who are considering supporting him. Klobuchar and Warren also got meaningful bumps, gaining 3.6 points and 2.6 points, respectively."

"Klobuchar and Buttigeg saw the largest jumps in net favorability (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) — 3.2 points and 2.6 points, respectively. And among the polling front-runners, both Warren and Sanders’s net favorability ratings improved by more than 2 points"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-october-poll/

"Outside of the top tier, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, saw the largest jump, gaining more than 5 percentage points among voters who prioritize beating Trump"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/issues-voters-see-the-race-differently-from-those-who-prioritize-beating-trump/

He was also unanimously declared one of the winners by multiple media publications saying he either had a strong night or that he had a breakout performance. So yeah, seems like it paid off for him. 

I'm aware of the reasons. I just think people are missing that his health care ideas aren't enough. single-payer is cheaper and better. He acts like he's using the buy-in to get to a single payer system but like....then don't take a huge dump on the concept of a single-payer system on national TV then?

I just got the feeling that he's fighting to keep insurance companies' fingers in our pockets instead of fighting for Americans. I wish more people would see that instead of seeing a man being confident and "sounding intelligent" and thinking he's so presidential like...can we get over that. ugh. 

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ItsTommyBitch

Pete is clearly vying for the Centrist position, which is a damn shame.

Unfortunately for him, he has still been hovering around 0% support from African Americans and hes pretty much nowhere with other groups as well, so he has essentially no chance of winning the general election there even if he were to win Iowa and take some support from Biden (who could eventually drop out)

Bernie has a better chance of picking up older African American voters if Biden loses Iowa and support shifts than Warren, Harris, OR Buttigieg.

I don't know why mainstream media doesnt realize that centrist policy is only popular with neoliberal and liberal, upper middle class to affluent white people and that voting block is not the majority of the country by any means :rip: 

Thats who makes up the majority of Warren and Buttigieg's support as of now.

 

 

私自身もこの世の中も誰もかれもが, どんなに華やかな人生でも, どんなに悲惨な人生でも, いつかは変貌し, 破壊され、消滅してしまう. すべてがもともとこの世に存在しない一瞬の幻想なのだから
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HybridAT
2 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

Yeah, that makes sense. Lots of people on here dismiss him because his views don’t align with their’s but he’s well spoken, comes off as intelligent, and he’s placed himself as a “safe” option.

I love watching him prove everyone wrong 😁

Looking forward to the Liberty Justice Dinner Celebration on November 1 in Des Moines, Iowa. It changed the course for Obama in terms of momentum and from what I hear following his campaign closely, he has big plans for it too. A strong showing will propel him even further.

 

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corvus albus
1 minute ago, HybridAT said:

It's because she didn't have the infrastructure in place to sustain. That's not the case with Pete. Also, Mayonnaise. How mature 🙄 just say you're not happy with this poll and move on.

I neither like him nor most of his policies and the kind of anger he has against Warren is better used against Biden. He's basically everything Hillary Clinton represents without the large personal baggage, you can't win an election with him. 

Standing Still
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Morphine Prince
21 minutes ago, SEANGT said:

i can't believe i'm rooting against the first gay presidential candidate SO hard. People saw what he did as GOOD in that debate? I hate America sometimes. 

It's good to not fall for the trap of identity politics. 

"He's gay" 

"The first woman"

Ok that's fine and all and we acknowledge the achievement, but let's get the best candidate elected regardless of their identities. 

The friends I've had to bury, they keep me up at night
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LateToCult
1 minute ago, HybridAT said:

I love watching him prove everyone wrong 😁

Looking forward to the Liberty Justice Dinner Celebration on November 1 in Des Moines, Iowa. It changed the course for Obama in terms of momentum and from what I hear following his campaign closely, he has big plans for it too. A strong showing will propel him even further.

 

His path to the nomination is still pretty uncertain. His people are also Biden’s people and they seem to be clinging onto him pretty hard.

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HybridAT
5 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

His path to the nomination is still pretty uncertain. His people are also Biden’s people and they seem to be clinging onto him pretty hard.

Don't you think if he wins/finishes top 3 in both Iowa and NH, Biden's black support may swing towards him? Minority voters want to see a viable nominee. If he finishes high in both, imo, he can peel off some of Biden's support. He also has a very strong black agenda. I'm waiting to see how his black support shifts within the next few months. The race is getting exciting. He has a lot of work to do there.

And let's be honest, he's probably the only one best positioned to take his moderate support.

But no doubt, South Carolina is Biden's firewall.

Edited by HybridAT

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