Signs point to Trump win in 2020

[PunkTheFunk 125,703]

A few months before the 2016 election I posted this thread about a professor who had correctly predicted every presidential election (popular vote) for the past 30 years. His method also retroactively accounts for elections from 1860 to 1980, with the exception of the election of 1876 (which was a weird one).

"Professor Allan Lichtman, who wrote the book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House," uses a series of true/false statements to determine his predictions. He considers things like incumbency, the economy, social unrest, scandals, and charisma to figure out which way the election is likely to go."

Lichtman told The Post how the system works:

"The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of 'true' always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years."

He predicted Trump would win in 2016 and many were skeptical, but look where we are now 

Anyway, I was thinking: if we looked at the 13 keys for the next election, who wins?

Spoiler

From https://peoplesvoiceradio.com/a-way-too-early-look-at-allan-lichtmans-13-keys-to-the-white-house-in-2020/

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

 False. In 2016 the Democrats retook the House of Representatives.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

True, at least so far. Lichtman defines “no serious contest” as one in which the incumbent party’s nominee holds two-thirds of the convention delegates at the start of the convention. Even if a President Pence is the Republican nominee, I’d expect no serious convention challenge.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

True. This key will also be true if Trump is deposed or resigns and Pence becomes president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Unknown and could go either way. This key is defined as true if a single third-party candidate gets at least 5% of the vote. (See here for an explanation of Lichtman’s modification of this key with respect to the 2016 election.)

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

True so far.

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

True.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

True. Consider the Trump administration’s China and trade policies.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

False. I would discount the great unrest in the press as signalling great general unrest, but still, the desire for change in the electorate is as this cycle as it was in 2016. Both party’s candidates will have to be, or pretend to be, for “change.” In Trump’s case, the pitch will be “I have more of the job of changing things left to do.”

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

False. The genuine scandals, as opposed to general media Trumpophobia, are numerous and serious.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

True so far, at least in the eyes of the public. Domestic concerns dominate the polling on “most important issues.”

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

False so far. Could a viable treaty with North Korea turn this key to True? That’s uncertain, just as it’s uncertain that Trump’s war cabinet would allow such a treaty to be signed.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

True. While Lichtman’s models and standards for presidential charisma are the two Roosevelts, John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, Trump is as wildly popular among his supporters as he is unpopular among his opponents. Let’s mark this True.

(In the so-far unlikely event that Mike Pence or anyone other than Trump is the nominee, this key becomes False.)

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

False so far.

So that leaves us with  only 5 false statements,  which means Trump gets four more years.

[GH0ULD 56]

ugh this is so dark sided i need the gays to start getting behind Mayor Pete 

[LadariousGarage 1]

nonononononononononononnononononononononononononono  

 

VOTE FOR DADDY PETE BEFORE ITS TOO LATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[shoful 13,304]

I told everyone he will win. And told you allto bookmark me in another thread. Well you can bookmark here. Trump will win a second term

[Perfume 8,828]

[GH0ULD 56]

4 minutes ago, shoful said:

I told everyone he will win. And told you allto bookmark me in another thread. Well you can bookmark here. Trump will win a second term

[Married the Night 3,955]

Everyone knows he’s getting re-elected. It doesn’t take rocket science. 

[Tom Nook 37,820]

Welp at least Trump would face the second term curse

[Werewoof 2,487]

Honestly I really am expecting Trump to win too. Mostly because presidents of either party for the past couple of elections have been getting 2 terms. 

Can’t say I’m super thrilled though. Especially because the end of the second terms tend to be the most impactful. 

[melodichard 3,769]

I’m pretty sure even Trump himself doesn’t want to be re-elected in 2020 

[DC 25,164]

Well on the brighter side, the president barely  does anything to your life, try to focus more on your city Mayor for example, believe it or not they have WAY more impact on your lives than the president does, pro tip 

[Guest]

I hope the f*** not lmao dems really need to step their game up, we need to end this already. 4 years is enough of Trump & his fanatics. We need to get dems back in the White House & start focusing on the actual issues like climate change, prison reform, minimum wage increase & free health care.

[rumours 45,521]

16 minutes ago, GH0ULD said:

ugh this is so dark sided i need the gays to start getting behind Mayor Pete 

I think you may be preaching to a choir of bottoms here on GGD, though. 

[Maleficent 6]

have you all starved to death under a trump presidency? have lotuses descended upon your crops and ruined the harvest? have all the water ways been poisoned? 

a trump presidency has its issues (just as every presidency before it—George Bush was definitely worse for the economy than Trumps was, and Obama’s foreign policy in the middle east was a disaster).

let’s not make a second term seem like a life or death situation 

[Maleficent 6]

5 minutes ago, ProjectJoanne said:

Well on the brighter side, the president barely  does anything to your life, try to focus more on your city Mayor for example, believe it or not they have WAY more impact on your lives than the president does, pro tip 

also THIS 👏👏👏