What would you do if you were Warner Bros.? (award-related)

[Bradley 59,243]

I took a look at the past five years' winners and nominees of the Golden Globes and the Oscars.

Actors who won a Drama Golden Globe and an Oscar:

Gary Oldman
Frances McDormand
Casey Affleck
Leonardo DiCaprio
Brie Larson
Julian Moore
Eddie Redmayne
Matthew McConaughey
Cate Blanchett

Actors who won a Comedy/Musical Golden Globe and an Oscar:

Emma Stone

It is very evident that Drama categories are treated with more respect than Comedy/Musical categories, in the past five years, out of 10 actors, only one Comedy/Musical actor had gone on to win the Oscar. One thing I can tell you is that every Oscar winner in the past five years is a Golden Globe winner, if Lady Gaga loses the Golden Globe, she will likely not get the Oscar, and the Actress trophy will be between the Drama winner and the Comedy/Musical winner.

This is probably why Warner Bros. submitted A Star Is Born under Drama, if A Star Is Born wins the Drama categories, they will stand a better chance at winning the Academy Award(s).

If Gaga and Bradley were submitted under Musical, their chances of winning the Globe would increase substantially, however it also means the Oscars will likely go to the Drama winners.

However, the drama category is so packed compared to Comedy/Musical, out of all the actresses in contention, only one is competing for comedy, and that is Olivia Colman. Glenn, Gaga, Nicole, Viola, Yalitza, Melissa are all Oscar contenders and are drama actresses this year. Is it really a good idea to submit Gaga under Drama, or should WB have pushed Gaga in Musical so that at least she stands a chance at pulling a Emma Stone and become one of the very few people who win a Musical Globe and Oscar?

Think about it, do you prefer Gaga being a Golden Globe Musical Winner, but having very little chances of winning the Oscar, or do you prefer risking Gaga losing both the Globe and Oscar?

It seems like WB decided to 'go big or go home', they might eventually lose everything, but in the event that they win the Globe for Actor, Actress and Motion Picture, their Oscar chances increase considerably.

It all begs the question: How likely is Lady Gaga going to win the Golden Globe for Drama Actress? Is it really wise for WB to submit ASIB under drama?

There are two narratives-

1. A lot of people are saying Glenn is an overdue veteran that deserves a win, she's been in the business for decades, and rewarding Glenn will not attract controversy because people will say 'she deserves it'. The GG might think 'we want people to agree with our choice so let's make Glenn the winner, we don't want people saying we reward a first-time actress over a veteran'.

2. However, we know the Golden Globe gets a hard-on when they see huge stars and commercially successful movies, and Bradley, Gaga, A Star Is Born beat everyone to sh*t in terms of all these aspects, Glenn's acting is praised, but her movie doesn't earn much profit, and is not as popular as ASIB. The GG might go 'We want to reward an all-round movie that succeeds not just in acting but also with big stars in it, and Gaga is the obvious choice.'

and if Gaga wins Drama, she will need to compete with Olivia at the Oscars since she is most definitely the Comedy winner, and then it gets unpredictable.

What do you think? Did WB make the right choice? Do you think Gaga will get the Globe and/or the Oscar?

[Schizophonic 7,015]

well we know since diane warren what they think about veteran long overdue winners.

i had the feeling especially in the industry the praise for the movie was insane, people could mostly very much relate to it and see what huge effort it was for all the actors to play in a very untraditional way. i can see they really feel the need to give them cudos for that in any way possible.

[YourEvilTwin 1,379]

Because Drama is taken more seriously than Comedy/Musical. If ASIB does well in Drama, it will not only secure its frontrunner status, but also prevent its chief competition from gaining too much momentum.

Also, if ASIB goes Comedy/Music, then Glenn Close is probably winning in Drama, which will put her front and centre in the race. Glenn Close has a strong narrative, but her film lacks the momentum. A Globe win will give her all the momentum that she needs, so it's a smart move to neutralize it before she becomes unstoppable.

[AlexanderMagno 10,746]

No, because ASIB is a Drama, not considered a Musical  guys, stop. There's a lot of music in the movie, but the songs are not an addition to spoken dialogue to futher the plot. It's in the Golden Globes rules. So, A Star is Born is not a musical, it's a Drama.

[BenG 19,908]

37 minutes ago, AlexanderMagno said:

No, because ASIB is a Drama, not considered a Musical  guys, stop. There's a lot of music in the movie, but the songs are not an addition to spoken dialogue to futher the plot. It's in the Golden Globes rules. So, A Star is Born is not a musical, it's a Drama.

Actually, ASIB qualified as a Musical at the GG but WB chose to enter the Drama category

[JazzGa 14,621]

I think, between the memes, the sheer sales and numbers, the soundtrack charting, and the variety of people filling the theatres from soccer moms to old ppl to gay young Gaga stans, (with many returning multiple times to see it again) ASIB is the movie which made a larger impact on the world than other movies from this year. Glenn's made little cultural impact at all and was a minor success AFAIK. This gives Gaga an advantage over Glenn IMO despite Glenn being the more veteran actress. 

I'm more concerned about BlacKKKlansman, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, Black Panther, and other popular films and their actors as competition than about The Wife. 

[Bradley 59,243]

6 hours ago, Satans Ex Wife said:

I think, between the memes, the sheer sales and numbers, the soundtrack charting, and the variety of people filling the theatres from soccer moms to old ppl to gay young Gaga stans, (with many returning multiple times to see it again) ASIB is the movie which made a larger impact on the world than other movies from this year. Glenn's made little cultural impact at all and was a minor success AFAIK. This gives Gaga an advantage over Glenn IMO despite Glenn being the more veteran actress. 

I'm more concerned about BlacKKKlansman, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, Black Panther, and other popular films and their actors as competition than about The Wife. 

The bolded films are really not a threat, they are too commercial and at most will only get a nomination, some might even argue that they don't stand a chance at a nomination.

BlackKkansman doesn't have a lead actress competing in Drama I suppose.

[ShayCristoforo 10,607]

I think winning for Best Song is still a great accomplishment. I agree with you, and I don't think she will win Best Actress. But Best Song is pretty much a huge win. Still an Oscar  

[bloody g 31,746]

She will get the globe, the oscar will be way harder but I'll still support her because I'm her fan and I genuinely enjoyed her acting considerably. So if it was for me, she should win it.