Early Signs Of Next Recession Popping Up

[Economy 53,076]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/07/23/the-bottom-half-is-bolstering-the-us-economy-thanks-to-borrowing.html

 

I promised that if I had some time where I was just chillin in my honeymoon that I'd pop by and here I am

 

So the signs of late cycle are showing the expansion is showing signs of exhaustion and a lot of the signs that show up before a recession are showing up.

 

The lower 60% of income earners in America are using up savings and piling on debt more quickly as they feel confident in the economy but their wages have not kept up with increased spending. As a result delinquencies are starting to rise and a drop in savings means less spending later

 

Other articles (not mentioned on this one) have also mentioned the flattening yield curve in which long term rates are only a little higher than short term rates meaning investors do not expect rates to keep going up considerably which happens during economic growth. In addition rising oil prices are a concern. The last 4 recessions the preceded with spikes in oil prices

 

After 10 years this is the longest economic expansion since WWII and unemployment is at a multi decade low. However wages for middle and low middle class have stagnated more than in typical expansions meaning that by some measuremes the economy is the strongest it has been in decades but by other measures, many average joes aren't feeling it

[Gladys622 974]

So Washington favors the rich? What a surprise. But it’s good to see you! Hope you’re having a good honeymoon.

[Economy 53,076]

Just now, mmmmmonster said:

So Washington favors the rich? What a surprise. But it’s good to see you! Hope you’re having a good honeymoon.

I mean the tax cuts have favoured the rich. The Corporate tax cuts are good for the economy from an investment standpoint long term. But to keep demand higher something to help bottom 50% would of been useful too

 

Also this signals a possible recession within 2 years not necessarily immediately

 

My honeymoon is amazing btw

 

[Admin 24,441]

Not very on topic but I just wanted to say that I hope you're having a great honeymoon & happy!

[Seringai 248]

Have an amazing honeymoon for you, I always love your thread, as an economics student myself in third world country I always dig up to your analysis

On topics, do you have any thought how this will impact to developing country? my govt are very optimistic with our economic outlook, however, with uncertainty created by trump we are now try to be much more risk averse and avoiding intense relationship with U.S

[Economy 53,076]

52 minutes ago, Tomie said:

Have an amazing honeymoon for you, I always love your thread, as an economics student myself in third world country I always dig up to your analysis

On topics, do you have any thought how this will impact to developing country? my govt are very optimistic with our economic outlook, however, with uncertainty created by trump we are now try to be much more risk averse and avoiding intense relationship with U.S

As far as what Trump does that's honestly hard to say depends on how far he goes with protectionism

 

But as far as as the Recession goes it always affects the whole world but the good news tho is that at least for now the imbalances the US are not as bad as leading up to 2008 crisis so if a recession happens soon most likely it wouldn't be as bad as last time, would be more mild

[Killa 18,889]

8Waaat you got married!!!?????? Whatt

Omg enjoy. Please still come here

Though it takes me two days to read this posts.  i always enjoy them though

[Eggsy 8,280]

3 hours ago, Admin said:

Not very on topic but I just wanted to say that I hope you're having a great honeymoon & happy!

Ban ha for going off topic...

Spoiler

Jk please dont ban me.

I agree. And as for my country i cant beleive we are still in decent economical shape. This president is one tarrif away from ruining any respect we have left. It sickens me.