Predicting ASIB's Box Office+Critical Success

[PunkTheFunk 124,437]

Because my winter break is flopping harder than Hey Hey Hey and I have nothing better to do, I analyzed all of Warner Brother's October releases in the 2010's to see how ASIB might fare at the box office.

RT = Rotten Tomatoes score

 = success

 = failure

= somewhere in the middle

**as a general rule of thumb, a film needs to make more than double its budget in order to be considered a success.

2010:

Life As We Know It (Oct 8, 2010): Box office success  ($105m gross/$38m budget), critical failure  (28% RT)

Hereafter (Oct 22, 2010): Box office success  ($105m gross/$50m budget), critical failure  (46% RT). OSCAR NOM FOR BEST VISUAL EFFECTS. 

2011: No films released in October

2012: 

Argo (Oct 12, 2012): Box office success  ($232m gross/$44.5m budget), critical SMASH   (96% RT). OSCAR BEST PICTURE WINNER. 

Cloud Atlas (Oct 26, 2012): Box office BOMB  ($130.5m gross/$128m budget), mixed critical reception  (66% RT).

2013:

Gravity (Oct 4, 2013): Box office SMASH  ($723m gross/$100m budget), critical SMASH (96% RT). 10 OSCAR NOMS; 7 OSCAR WINS 

2014:

Annabelle (Oct 3, 2014): Box office SMASH  ($257m gross/$7m budget), critical failure  (29% RT). 

The Judge (Oct 10, 2014): Box office flop  ($84.4m gross/$50m budget), critical failure  (47% RT). 1 OSCAR NOM FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

2015:

Pan (Oct 9, 2015): Box office BOMB  ($128m gross/$150m budget), critical failure  (27% RT). --> This film was originally slated for July 2015, but was pushed back to October.

Our Brand Is Crisis (Oct 30, 2015): Box office FLOP  ($9m gross/$28m budget), critical failure  (34% RT). 

2016:

The Accountant (Oct 14, 2016): Box office success  ($155m gross/$44m budget), critical failure  (52% RT). --> Was pushed back from Jan 2016 to Oct 2016.

2017:

Geostorm (Oct 11, 2017): A "massive box office bomb" according to many sources , critical failure  (13% RT). --> Was pushed back from March 2016 to Oct 2016.

Blade Runner 2049 (Oct 6, 2017): Box office under-performance , critical success  (87% RT). Will surely get some Oscar noms for visual/sound effects 

2018:

A Star Is Born (Oct 5, 2018): ???????

Mowgli (Oct 19, 2018): ??????

_____________________________________________________

My verdict:

Box office success: ASIB will do well at the box office. The only Warner Brothers movies that really flopped in October (with the exception of The Judge and Our Brand Is Crisis) were sci-fi movies with huge budgets. Although, ASIB is going to go up against Venom, which may spell trouble for its numbers.

Critical success: WB's has had quite a few October critical failures. Taking the test screening feedback into account as well, I have a feeling it's getting a 48% on Rotten Tomatoes  But it could go either way. 

What do you think?

[ryanripley 86,575]

a box office success, how big is the budget anyway? i feel like budget is rather small and probably not that hard to beat considering how many fans she has giving it a hefty boost

but a critical flop  

i'm excited for the movie but critics can be really harsh with gaga

Spoiler

also poor cloud atlas but it's what she deserves

the book >>>> the confusing af movie

 

[Twitter 14]

I think the box office would be above average for a remake film. I definitely believe Gaga will be critically acclaimed for ASIB being her first film and vocals as per usual. Hopefully its a success cause I want her to star in more non-remake films! 

[PunkTheFunk 124,437]

9 minutes ago, ryanripley said:

a box office success, how big is the budget anyway?

Shouldn't be more than 20 million  Pitch Perfect was $17 million and La La Land was $30 million, so I'm guessing somewhere in between.

*The 1976 version of ASIB's budget was $6 million at the time, so $26 million adjusted for inflation.

[ryanripley 86,575]

Just now, PunkTheFunk said:

Shouldn't be more than 20 million  Pitch Perfect was $17 million and La La Land was $30 million, so I'm guessing somewhere in between.

i think they'll do well with the box office then

if they somehow don't manage to match the budget then  

[SWhaaaat 534]

6 minutes ago, PunkTheFunk said:

Shouldn't be more than 20 million  Pitch Perfect was $17 million and La La Land was $30 million, so I'm guessing somewhere in between.

I think it's $40 million, that's what I read somewhere . But I could be wrong though 

[PunkTheFunk 124,437]

Just now, ryanripley said:

if they somehow don't manage to match the budget then  

It'll be a Meltdown To Remember, coming to a thread near you.

[MarcusBones 3,343]

It will do moderate at the box office I think, I think it will be received well actually

[That J 12,166]

My prediction.....

The majority of critics will call it a triumph for Cooper and really appreciate the new spin on an older classic. Gaga will get praise as a serious actress holding her own with others.  The music will also be well received. The R rating will have no effect on the film whatsoever. 

There will be SOME critics who will say Gaga is good but "is she just playing herself"?   A few may say the formula for such a film is just tired but it was good for what it was. 

Domestically, here in America, I predict the film will end it's theater run with $72.9 million.  It will have longevity.  

 

And that's my prediction of the night! 

[hausofcy 20,325]

Since gaga decided to show her muffin in the movie I think they’ll lose a couple of millions due to the rated R status. However, i’m confident it’ll do quite good both box office and acclaim. Nothing spectacular nor bad. But as a stan I’m secretly hoping for a box office smash + oscar. 

[Meredith Grey 3,155]

I think the film will fare better than we think it’s going to. I think after the past couple years we’ve gotten into this idea that Gaga is not going to do well commercially, which we should stop with. We have now idea how a movie that stars Gaga will do. At the end of the day many people will see the movie because of Gaga, but it will become a hit if the movie itself is good. No one will have room to judge until we get the trailer.

[pedrohemg 7,802]

Flop box office. Nowadays only superhero, action, scfi, horror movies can make big money. A great example is Moonlight that made only 65M despite being the best movie of 2016 according to the Academy.

[Chris Evans 8,917]

Even though it's Rated R I think it'll do pretty well

critical acclaim will probably be mixed because it's a remake and it has Gaga so that will turn off some people even without seeing the movie

[Economy 49,790]

- Critical acclaim

- moderate success

[RAMROD 109,589]

Hmmmmmmm

Either people will hate it just because she's Lady Gaga.

Or people will appreciate her and surprised at her first try at major acting gig