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The Cure predicted to sell 74k by Kworb


Azor Ahai

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Hi Its Nicole
9 minutes ago, Slayer said:

I'm hungry. 

 

9 minutes ago, Cailleach said:

Me too. 

 

8 minutes ago, Spyro said:

Let's get Wendy's.

 

6 minutes ago, Cailleach said:

K I'm here now what do you want and I'll get it and drop it off.

I love how quickly that got put together 

Hello Gaga
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ItWasntLaauv

I converted some people to Little Curesters at school today!! :pray:

Make sure to promote this smasher to your friends and fam! :rockstar:

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Slayer
15 minutes ago, Hi its nick said:

 

 

 

I love how quickly that got put together 

I got a warning. :ladyhaha: 

The OP asked for our thoughts and that's what I was thinking. :cryga:

Guess I should say something about the topic. Woo, go Stefani, such sales, very wow. 

I love judas SO MUCH but I canʹt look like a copycat of JLO!!!!
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Married the Night

The song is so much better than PI. I BET it gets better streaming numbers 

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Hi Its Nicole
3 minutes ago, Slayer said:

I got a warning.  

The OP asked for our thoughts and that's what I was thinking. 

Guess I should say something about the topic. Woo, go Stefani, such sales, very wow. 

I feel like u are gonna get another WP. Ur honestly like me. If someone asked me for my thoughts I say what I'm thinking at the moment (except when teachers ask me).

Hello Gaga
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Slayer
1 minute ago, Hi its nick said:

I feel like u are gonna get another WP. Ur honestly like me. If someone asked me for my thoughts I say what I'm thinking at the moment (except when teachers ask me).

BqHng2hpjOUdW.gif

I love judas SO MUCH but I canʹt look like a copycat of JLO!!!!
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YeehawKylie
8 minutes ago, Slayer said:

I got a warning.  

The OP asked for our thoughts and that's what I was thinking. 

Just for saying 'I'm hungry'? :oprah:

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Slayer
Just now, IndieKylie said:

Just for saying 'I'm hungry'? :oprah:

It was irrelevant to the post. Which I understand. But I sometimes forget about all the rules here. :cryga:

I love judas SO MUCH but I canʹt look like a copycat of JLO!!!!
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Azor Ahai
Just now, Slayer said:

It was irrelevant to the post. Which I understand. But I sometimes forget about all the rules here. :cryga:

Get off my lawn with your hungry posts !

You were merged into my thread and you dare shitpost?

4V0zl.gif

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Irrelevant
2 hours ago, Misaki said:

Isn't that way lower than CTTR and SOTT?

Well, she just released without prior notice :poot:

광야로 걸어가 알아 네 home ground
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Irrelevant
3 minutes ago, Azor Ahai said:

Get off my lawn with your hungry posts !

You were merged into my thread and you dare shitpost?

4V0zl.gif

giphy.gif

광야로 걸어가 알아 네 home ground
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pdaines
3 hours ago, monsterdino said:

isn't it doing better than Perfect Illusion tho? and that sold over 100k

Perfect Illusion had a promo campaign, and it had a sharp drop-off. The Cure hasn't noticeably dropped off at all since its release. That's why people think it is doing better + the reviews & reception generally, not because its numerical performance is any better (it's not). 

Also, sales are still on a rapid decline over time as more and more people just do streaming. 

Just give it a week or two & then start judging. 

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monsterdino
1 minute ago, pdaines said:

Perfect Illusion had a promo campaign, and it had a sharp drop-off. The Cure hasn't noticeably dropped off at all since its release. That's why people think it is doing better + the reviews & reception generally, not because its numerical performance is any better (it's not). 

Also, sales are still on a rapid decline over time as more and more people just do streaming. 

Just give it a week or two & then start judging. 

Sis it's doing better bc Perfect Illusion dropped from #1 quickly where's The Cure is still on top (thank god) if she released it on Friday (aka have 2 more days) then I'm sure it would outsold PI's debut

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pdaines
3 hours ago, JohnWayne23 said:

I honestly don't know if I trust Kworb though. 

Like how can they predict the next three days

 

Kworb uses an unknown algorithm to project weekly sales. They are pretty good generally, but I suspect that the algorithm is based primarily on continuation of the observed pattern within a single song's sales curve rather than making fancy projections based on the way that other similarly situated songs' curves look. This would lead to early overestimates of debut sales weeks for hyped songs that haven't started dropping yet after their initial peaks.

 If, on the other hand, they are using a more sophisticated model that takes into account standard collapse curves for hyped debuts even where the song in question hasn't yet shown any sign of collapse, then it would be more likely to underestimate the sales for a song like Gaga's that DIDN'T have a lot of pre-existing hype, and which thus might be expected to have a more stable view curve without as sharp or early a collapse.

For what it's worth, my personal projection before I saw the kworb.net numbers was 50-80K. 

Another way to look at it is to compare Gaga's sales to those of an established hit, let's say Bruno Mars's "That's What I Like." We can project with a high degree of confidence that Bruno's song will sell another 70-72K copies this week. That means he will sell 50K during the 5 days in which Gaga's song is tracking. For Gaga to sell 74K copies in that time would therefore require her to continue selling 50% more copies/hour than Bruno for the remainder of the tracking week -- i.e. that is effectively a projection of no decline over time at all. So it's probably TOO HIGH. 

THUS, my current projection is 50K-70K first week sales, with special favor for the number 67K. 

But again, it is difficult to project over the next 3 days when it hasn't yet entered its decline phase and thus given us an idea of the slope coefficient. 

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pdaines
1 hour ago, QueenTam said:

its already getting DARK RED updates tho :wacko:

It was getting dark red updates last night when I went to bed, and this morning it was back in the green with net 0 change. In fact, earlier today it surpassed its original peak from yesterday. 

I think this is because the song came out with no hype, and it is getting some after the fact hype that is helping keep it afloat and thus tending towards a more stable view curve.

But, again, wait until tomorrow to see whether it has entered a sharp collapse phase yet. 

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