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Closed: Chart Discussion: Joanne / Million Reasons


Noah

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so in a perfect world:

 

Week 1 of album release: everything went perfectly. If only she sold 0,9k more copies :giveup:

week 2: MR's discount should be discontinued and MR will fade to top20-30 over the course of the week. Pop radio and HAC will pick it up and hopefully give it 5-10M AI in total. No important Spotify playlists to give an impression of continuing improvement on the Spotify charts later on. Carpool effect lives on albeit to a lesser extent. 50k SPS. No US promo besides some commercials.

week 3: yet again no promo, besides the commercial airing at some points and more subtle promo like internet Ads. MR stays in the top20-30 of US iTunes but slowly gains ground and becomes a Shazam 'future hit'. Rises to 15M AI, of which most is from Pop and a third is from HAC. 25k SPS

week 4: Gaga comes back to the US and performs at a late night show and a day show, boosting MR to a top 15 position for the week. Song rises to 30M AI, getting +1M updates on both pop and HAC. 20k SPS.

week 5: Gaga performs at GMA and AMAs, propelling the song into the top 10. Ends the week with 50M AI. Enters top 50 on AC radio. 25k SPS

week 6: Gaga performs at a daytime show and does several radio interviews. Thanksgiving special helps MR stabilise in the top 15. Ends the week with 70M AI. 60k SPS thanks to Black Friday.

week 7: No performance this week. MR stays top 20 and ends the week with 100M AI thanks to amazing call-out scores. 25k SPS.

week 8: The Voice finale performance with Miley Cyrus and studio version put on iTunes, both discounted, and music video release, make the song occupy two of the three spots in the top three on iTunes. Both the music video and the performance go viral. Performance at a daytime show and a night show helps the song stabilise in the top 5 for the week. Airplay increases to 120M AI. Song peaks at #3 on BB Hot 100, album goes back to top 5 with 40k SPS.

week 9: Radio freeze makes MR stabilise in radio, discount discontinued leading to less sales. Song goes back to #10-15. Christmas sales boost makes the album have 70k SPS.

week 10: Radio freeze again, MR declines in AI to 110M. It is, however, MR's best week in sales, selling 200k with a discount thanks to the holidays gift explosion. 70k SPS. Gaga starts rehearsals for SB.

week 11: Radio picks up again, MR quickly rises to 130M AI mainly thanks to increased AC support. #15-20 on iTunes. 20k SPS

week 12: MR rises to 140M AI and peaks. Still #15-20 on iTunes. 10k SPS.

 

:classy: I don't really know how big holidays sales boost is going to be though.

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Americano

Ooooooh so HDD uses point of sale tracked purchases to project/forecast the chart and Billboard/Soundscan actually gets a total from all retailers for a more accurate number (90% report in).

Interesting- the more ya know! Generally the number goes up if an artist sells a lot at department stores when the full tally comes to Soundscan, sometimes goes down if the artist is stronger elsewhere.

I guess we will see Sunday if Gaga cracked that 200k barrier! Everyone light their Alejandro candles.

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199k will haunt us forever :green:

but it's an absolutely awesome achievement for Gaga, completely exceeded my expectations!

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1 minute ago, Americano said:

Ooooooh so HDD uses point of sale tracked purchases to project/forecast the chart and Billboard/Soundscan actually gets a total from all retailers for a more accurate number (90% report in).

Interesting- the more ya know! Generally the number goes up if an artist sells a lot at department stores when the full tally comes to Soundscan, sometimes goes down if the artist is stronger elsewhere.

I guess we will see Sunday if Gaga cracked that 200k barrier! Everyone light their Alejandro candles.

she she MIGHT have crossed over to 200k?

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Carpool still #1 on Youtube Trending in the Netherlands. I think it got 300k-500k views from this country alone. That's a lot :giveup:

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Arizona Sky

Pure sales predictions:

Week 1: 165k

Week 2: 35k

Week 3: 20k

Week 4: 15k

Week 5: 25k (AMAs)

Week 6: 50k (Black Friday)

Week 7: 10k

Week 8: 10k

Week 9: 10k

Week 10: 40k (Christmas)

Week 11: 5k

Week 12: 5k

Week 13: 5k

Week 14: 5k

Week 15: 5k

Week 16: 60k (Super Bowl)

Week 17: 15k

Week 18: 10k

Week 19: 5k

Week 20: 5k

So it will cross 500k pure on Week 20

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SomethingMore

1. Lady Gaga - Million Reasons 1.00001

2. The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey)  0.9933

nn the reverse Warholian experience ! :poot:

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i hope streaming keeps her going, considering she garnered around 35k SPS to the additional 169k pure sales.

this is the big test.
how long will she remain in the Top 10 on the Billboard 200..

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Americano
27 minutes ago, Music said:

she she MIGHT have crossed over to 200k?

Yea HDD uses some retailers to forecast a total but Billboard will have full numbers.

It goes both ways though-- She could be revised up to like 205K SPS but also revised down to like 190K SPS

We will have to see on Sunday

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