LebaneseDude 6,146 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Via The Hill Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads her Republican counterpart Donald Trump by single digits in the latest national poll released Thursday evening. Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, 47 to 41 percent, among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll. The poll comes on the heels of two other national surveys this week, from Fox News and Rasmussen Reports, that showed Trump with a single-digit lead. Fifty-five percent of registered voters view Trump unfavorably, compared to 26 percent who view him favorably, while 52 percent view Clinton unfavorably and 31 percent view her favorably. Edited just now by LebaneseDude. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LebaneseDude 6,146 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 Poll this. Poll that. All pointless. Here's an excellent article by The New York times. Stop the Polling Insanity A snippet: OVER the past few weeks, cable news networks and other media sites have trumpeted wild fluctuations and surprising results in polling on the presumed general-election matchup between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton. In this highly charged election, it’s no surprise that the news media see every poll like an addict sees a new fix. That is especially true of polls that show large and unexpected changes. Those polls get intense coverage and analysis, adding to their presumed validity. The problem is that the polls that make the news are also the ones most likely to be wrong. And to folks like us, who know the polling game and can sort out real trends from normal perturbations, too many of this year’s polls, and their coverage, have been cringeworthy. With low response rates and other issues, pollsters try to massage their data to reflect the population as a whole, weighting their samples by age, race and sex. But that makes polling far more of an art than a science, and some surveys build in distortions, having too many Democrats or Republicans, or too many or too few minorities. If polling these days is an art, there are a lot of mediocre or bad artists. When polling aficionados see results that seem surprising or unusual, the first instinct is to look under the hood at things like demographic and partisan distributions. When cable news hosts and talking heads see these kinds of results, they exult, report and analyze ad nauseam. Caveats or cautions are rarely included. At the same time, we have no strong sense of how to sort out likely voters from nonvoters when a relentlessly negative campaign can frighten people into voting or depress them into staying home. Smart analysts are working to sort out distorting effects of questions and poll design. In the meantime, voters and analysts alike should beware of polls that show implausible, eye-catching results. Look for polling averages and use gold-standard surveys, like Pew. Everyone needs to be better at reading polls — to first look deeper into the quality and nature of a poll before assessing the results. Edited just now by LebaneseDude. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JevyDuty 2,961 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Polling this early on is fine. Now blowing them out of proportion daily is RIDICULOUS! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morphine Prince 110,088 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Invalid poll. NYT and CBS? Too liberal. Not conservative enough. Trump is obviously leading. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LebaneseDude 6,146 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, Morphine Prince said: Invalid poll. NYT and CBS? Too liberal. Not conservative enough. Trump is obviously leading. New York Times Edited just now by LebaneseDude. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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