Does Putin want a major war ? What is Putin's agenda ?

[AlphaMonster 1,806]

DISCUSS... 

My opinion: (I chose 2nd choice) (summed up) 
-Russia was mostly away from a dominating global power since dissolution of USSR. 
-Putin's recent actions, decisions and speeches point out to an agenda for Russia to become a dominating global power as USSR once used to be, in a way that only US is now..
-To reach this goal, Putin has been taking actions since 2008 (war against Georgia and Ukraine).
-Current step is about NATO, and (in) middle east. Putin tried to see how much he could stretch NATO's limits. But I don't think Putin specifically seeks war with NATO or any other country, but also avoiding war is not top Priority for Putin. A war might be part of Putin's agenda depending on situation. (Georgia and Ukraine were not militarily competitive with Russia, Putin declared war against them. But did not against Turkey, a NATO country)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

 

PS: For facts part, if you have facts, informations relevant to forming an opinion about topic, please share it, I can add them.

Some information that are relevant to form an opinion about what Putin targets: (Facts - Objective)

Spoiler

- Recent military operations against Georgia, and Ukraine. 
- In 2015, Countless airspace violations of NATO countries until November. (Estonia, Canada, Turkey, Denmark) NATO warned Russia publicly many times but airspace violations did not end until Turkey shot down Russian Jet. 
- Rejecting US, Netherlands and Canada's declarations as they heard Turkish Air Forces' warnings by claiming Turkey did not warn Russian pilots before shooting down the jet. Russia released radar pics ,which are different than that of Turkey and NATO, that show Russian Jet did not fly into Turkish Airspace. According to russian, syrian and iranian claims, downing of Russian Jet is illegal, but according to NATO, it is within the boundaries of international law. 
- Bringing long-range missiles to Syria which was not allowed by US-led coalition until Turkey shot down jet. Russia brought long-range missiles after incident claiming existence of Turkish threat in the region. 
- A soldier on Russian Naval Ship was holding a rocket launcher on his shoulder in ready to use position while passing Bosphorus Strait (Istanbul). In response, 2 Turkish, 1 Canadian, 1 Spanish, 1 Portuguese Warships came to Bosphorus (All NATO countries). 
- After downing of jet, Russia held media events in which Russia publicly released documents that Russia claims to prove Turkey's support to ISIS. Evidences presented were considered as faux, illogical by Pentagon, Iraqi Kurdistan.
- Russia is the biggest ally of Assad's regime in Syria. Keeping Assad in power is essential for Russia's influence in middle east. On the other hand, US-led coalition against ISIS is supporting other Syrian Rebels against Assad. Since Paris attack, France stopped supporting (caring about) Syrian Rebels against Assad, while still supporting Turkey's downing of jet as a NATO ally, they are not concerned with Russia's operations against non-ISIS Syrian Rebels as long as they attack ISIS. While ISIS is the common enemy of all these countries, NATO and US made statements disapproving Russia's focusing on Syrian Rebels rather than ISIS. Essentially, Russia considers armed non-ISIS Syrian Rebels as terrorists too which is a matter of discussion.

Based on informations presented above, My Interpretation: (Subjective)

Spoiler

-Russia wants to be a global dominating power as once they used to be. During cold war, World had two sided US and Russia; but now only dominating power is US, and other global powers do not have a sphere of influence anywhere near that of US. 

-In 2008, Russia declared war against Georgia supporting independence of regions within Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), established military bases in those regions. Recently, Russia took a step which is bigger compared to that of 2008, they pretty much done to some with Ukraine and its Crimea Region but this time, Russia annexed Crimea. Since 2014, economic sanctions were put on Russia by Western Countries, with dropping oil prices, Russian economy got into an economic crisis.

-Since 2014, number of Russia's airspace violations of NATO countries increased, first on North; then in south. With these violations, Russia tried to see how much it can stretch NATO's borders.
Stretching NATO's borders have 2 different meanings:
1- Up until what point NATO allows Russia to do practically whatever they want.
2- How much NATO avoids conflict with Russia/ as how much threatening Russia is perceived by NATO. After October, where diplomatic talks reached a higher level with Russia about airspace violations; John Kerry said that Russian Jets could have been shot down, NATO declared that they are ready to deploy armies to intimidate Russia so that Russia would stop its market research about one rival on their way of becoming a dominating global power, NATO(US and its allies).

- One month later, in November, Turkey shot down Russian Jet for violating its airspace despite warnings which I consider as a statement of NATO since all NATO countries supported it.
Seeing NATO supporting Turkey, Russia avoided antagonizing NATO, but took a path to antagonize Turkey for two reasons that are interrelated.
1- Taking revenge from Turkey: It became a personal issue for Putin because becoming a dominating global power is his goal, and a matter of National Pride. So a country's downing Russian Jet is a loss of international prestige of Russia as Global Power. So as revenge in order for Turkey to lose international prestige, and prestige among NATO, Putin tried to show Turkey as supporter of ISIS with faux evidences that Russia never considered to release before downing of jet since downing of the jet was considered legal by international authorities a war was not in options. 
2- Diminishing its loss of International Prestige as Global Power: First time in 50 years, a NATO country shot down a Russian Jet, but since it was legal, Russia could not take military action without becoming enemy of whole NATO. Since NATO supported Turkey; Russia tried to create a different frame to obtain two goals. First, to show itself sympathetic. Second, to diminish loss of international prestige as Global Power. This "FRAME" : presented Turkey as accomplices of terrorist, who support ISIS to present situation as a country that supported terrorists shot down their jet. If succeeded in this attempt, Russia would become the hero that is attacked by Terrorist Supporters in the eyes of NATO. But evidences were weak or faux in attempt to create this frame(debunked by various non-turkish authorities). 

This week, a Russian soldier was holding rocket launcher in ready to use position on Russian Naval Passing Bosphorus Strait was also a try to see NATO's response to it which resulted in 5 NATO warships coming to Istanbul. 

Infusing opinions stated above together: 
Putin wants Russia to be as dominating and threatening as USSR used to be. Since 2008, he was taking steps each one is more daring than previous ones. Recently, Putin was testing red lines of NATO as NATO is the most significant rival for Russia to become a dominating Global Power.
Turkey's downing of Russian Jet was where NATO finally responded to Russia's aggressive actions which serve as steps for Putin's agenda.
NATO declared that it is ready to deploy armies to protect its borders in response to Russian aggression which is a message to Putin. Putin could declare a war even though Russia would be aggressor which would lead NATO to declare war against Russia due to Article 5 since downing of jet was legal.
But Putin did not declare war, which I see as a signal that Putin does not seek a major war with other superpowers but overpowering them with sphere of influence which Russia increased since 2008, and still trying to see ways of increasing it.
Even though Putin did not declare war, downing of the jet by a NATO country (arch-enemy of all of Russia's allies) was a loss of International prestige as Global Power, so Putin tried to blame Turkey as a supporter of ISIS afterwards in every ways possible so that 
1- Turkey would not be supported, and left alone by NATO, which would increase Russia's ability to increase its aggression, and fortify its sphere of influence in Middle East.
2- Turkey would lose international prestige which is a way of taking revenge for downing of jet. 
3- Russia's loss of International Prestige as Global Power would be diminished; currently, situation is that NATO country shot down a Russian Jet which gives a message that
    a : NATO is not scared of Russia / b : Russia is not like US as other countries can shoot their jet down / a + b = c : Russia is not a dominating global power. 
    But if Turkey was considered as a country that supports by western governments, and not as an ally by NATO; Russia would be perceived as a heroic victim of a country that fights     against terrorism by other countries which would not diminish its prestige.
So I believe that Putin's agenda is based on Russia's becoming a dominating global power as USSR once used to be, in a way that only US is now. But I don't think Putin specifically seeks war with NATO or any other country, but also avoiding war is not top Priority for Putin. A war might be part of russian agenda depending on potential enemies(loss-gain). But Turkey was a NATO country so they did not. Additionally, soldier's showing rocket launcher on his shoulder is a sign that Russia still tests NATO's borders, and support to Turkey in my opinion. 

 

[VTV 13,876]

@Admin 

[Chic 20,830]

I don't know, but whatever it is, he's certainly been Putin it off for quite some time. He's been Stalin for way too long now!

[AlphaMonster 1,806]

14 minutes ago, X said:

@Admin 

Is it some sort of thing that shouldn't be talked about ? If not, why did you quote admin ? Just wondering.

[VTV 13,876]

10 minutes ago, AlphaMonster said:

Is it some sort of thing that shouldn't be talked about ? If not, why did you quote admin ? Just wondering.

 no. i just tagged admin to hear his side of comment about this issue. no other meanings

also, cuz he's from russia 

[Melech 9,900]

31 minutes ago, Chic said:

I don't know, but whatever it is, he's certainly been Putin it off for quite some time. He's been Stalin for way too long now!

Putin is no way comparable with Stalin:  

Or is it a word game that I don't get

 

[Melech 9,900]

Any on-topic. I don't mind Russia becoming a global player obvious as long as they get more "free" eg. gay rights. 

 

[AlphaMonster 1,806]

43 minutes ago, X said:

 no. i just tagged admin to hear his side of comment about this issue. no other meanings

also, cuz he's from russia 

Oh good, I did not know he was from Russia. 

I wonder how Putin and his actions are perceived by Russians of different political views; I specifically wonder what more educated russians' opinions are. 

I live in Toronto but I am turkish. 
For example, Erdogan is praised by less educated people mostly while most turkish intellectuals highly dislike Erdogan. 

I think Putin and Erdogan are very similar despite couple different nuances. 
Putin and Erdogan both seem to be similar in these ways: 
1- Both are addicted to power. 
2- Both are reckless about well-being of their citizens. 
3- Both don't hesitate to lie shamelessly in order to achieve their agenda. 
4- Both are bigoted conservative.

But, They seem to be different in a way: 
-Erdogan loves his own power in the country, hesitates taking any steps that can damage his own power in the country, will take steps that will bolster his power in the country. 
-Putin loves his power derived from Russia's power, will take any steps to make his country more powerful such as invading other countries, or messing with danger of a war with NATO. 

All differences between their similarities I see is caused by this one essential difference. To give an example: (2)
- Erdogan confirmed personally approving excessive police brutality against protestors as acceptable in 2013 Anti-Erdogan Gezi Protests, Turkish citizens.  
- Putin annexed Crimea from Ukraine resulting in Europe's economic sanctions on Russia which is one of the primary reasons that led Russian Economy into instability and economic crisis. As a result, Russian Economy is expected to shrink by 4% that essentially harms life quality of Russian citizens.
 

[Chic 20,830]

13 minutes ago, Simon said:

Putin is no way comparable with Stalin:  

Or is it a word game that I don't get

 

It's puns! Putin it off = Putting it off, Stalin = stalling. 

[AlphaMonster 1,806]

8 minutes ago, Simon said:

Any on-topic. I don't mind Russia becoming a global player obvious as long as they get more "free" eg. gay rights. 

Well, I personally don't care about how powerful my home country Turkey is, I would much rather Turkey to be like Switzerland or Norway rather than a military power. 

Only reason why I would not prefer Russia to be as strong as USSR is well-being of my country. I would not mind it before downing of the jet since relations of Turkey and Russia were good.
But still I tried to remain unbiased in OP, and did not comment favoring or disapproving about Putin's ambitions of becoming a global player. 

[Melech 9,900]

4 minutes ago, AlphaMonster said:

Well, I personally don't care about how powerful my home country Turkey is, I would much rather Turkey to be like Switzerland or Norway rather than a military power. 

Only reason why I would not prefer Russia to be as strong as USSR is well-being of my country. I would not mind it before downing of the jet since relations of Turkey and Russia were good.
But still I tried to remain unbiased in OP, and did not comment favoring or disapproving about Putin's ambitions of becoming a global player. 

well,  I don't think that Turkey could allow to be more like Switzerland due to where it's located. Switzerland and Norway are surrounded by peaceful countries while Turkey has the Middle East in its back. 

 

[AlphaMonster 1,806]

6 minutes ago, Simon said:

well,  I don't think that Turkey could allow to be more like Switzerland due to where it's located. Switzerland and Norway are surrounded by peaceful countries while Turkey has the Middle East in its back. 

True  I think the exact same.

In a turkish reddit type of website, couple years ago, there was a topic which went viral about "carrying" the country from middle east to get rid of all middle east drama.

They made these maps : 
http://img-0.onedio.com/img/719/bound/2r0/55b663e5f78183f007dd10e4.webp
http://img-3.onedio.com/img/719/bound/2r0/55b63bf21f43bea36ea63be7.webp

[VTV 13,876]

9 minutes ago, AlphaMonster said:

Oh good, I did not know he was from Russia. 

I wonder how Putin and his actions are perceived by Russians of different political views; I specifically wonder what more educated russians' opinions are. 

I live in Toronto but I am also turkish. Erdogan is praised by less educated people mostly while most turkish intellectuals highly dislike Erdogan. 
I think Putin and Erdogan are very similar despite couple different nuances. 

Putin and Erdogan both seem to be similar in these ways: 
1- Both are addicted to power. 
2- Both are reckless about well-being of their citizens. 
3- Both don't hesitate to lie shamelessly in order to achieve their agenda. 
4- Both are bigoted conservative.

But, They seem to be different in a way: 
-Erdogan loves his own power in the country, hesitates taking any steps that can damage his own power in the country, will take steps that will bolster his power in the country. 
-Putin loves his power derived from Russia's power, will take any steps to make his country more powerful such as invading other countries, or messing with danger of a war with NATO. 

All differences between their similarities I see is caused by this one essential difference. To give an example: (2)
- Erdogan confirmed personally approving excessive police brutality against protestors as acceptable in 2013 Anti-Erdogan Gezi Protests, Turkish citizens.  
- Putin annexed Crimea from Ukraine resulting in Europe's economic sanctions on Russia which is one of the primary reasons that led Russian Economy into instability and economic crisis. As a result, Russian Economy is expected to shrink by 4% that essentially harms life quality of Russian citizens.
 

well, we used to have an aggressive president like that and he's in position for 21 years, until a people power revolution started and dethroned him. i really cant say whether he's good for the country or not but he got a pretty bad aftertaste here until his death due to his legacy of militarization,countless corruptions, crimes and killings as well as the media censorship. 

sorry if this is kinda ot. im not really a political guy  

[Luiz 4,253]

uhh idk  

maybe just to appear strong and be able to have increased global influence on the world

 

fighting ISIS and defeating them will make everyone have to lift sanctions on russia and their economy can improve. 

protect assad for future oil deals maybe

influence the world to look the other way while he influences ukranian government to be more russia friendly and stop them from bringing NATO closer to russia's borders.

no i do not think he wants war. these days nobody wants war but he wants to save his economy and expand influence.

the russia turkey is nothing more and a d*ick measuring contest between russia and NATO. possibly wants to influence NATO throw turkey out so with them not being a part of NATO they are free to attack turkey if erdogan tries to mess with assad when he is eventually put back in power of syria. 

 

thats all i can come up with  i am not a foreign policy expert. idk what to do about russia

[Melech 9,900]

7 minutes ago, AlphaMonster said:

True  I think the exact same.

In a turkish reddit type of website, couple years ago, there was a topic which went viral about "carrying" the country from middle east to get rid of all middle east drama.

They made these maps : 
http://img-0.onedio.com/img/719/bound/2r0/55b663e5f78183f007dd10e4.webp
http://img-3.onedio.com/img/719/bound/2r0/55b63bf21f43bea36ea63be7.webp

you won't have good weather anymore tho