In 100 Years... USA, Canada & Venezuela Will Provide For Worlds Oil Needs!

[Melech 9,900]

Oil will NOT be irrelevant in 100 years. I HIGHLY doubt that. It's going to be a slow change over decades but 100 years is not enough. Not the way our world is right now. 

 

The sad thing is that we won't have oil for so long anymore. Our kids and their kids will need to find a way to live without oil ​

[Economy 52,842]

The article is also missing the Arctic region where is also a huge oil field and countries like Russia will highly profit from it. 

 

Though we need to find alternatives. Due to our growing earth population and our use of products where oil is used, we won't have more than 120 years with Oil. The article don't seem to take all these things to account. 

Arctic is believed to hold as much as 1/3 of worlds oil but because its largely theoretical and they dont have many concret numbers, they dont make up part of the 10.2 trillion reserves as of now

 

Canadas recent large shale discovery is close to the arctic actually (just a little south still within Canadian land). But because 115 billion barrels is a quick preliminary estimate with no concret numbers, it still doesnt count in any official reseverves yet, not even Canadian reserves

 

Australia also found a pretty sizable ammount a couple years ago but more surveying needs to be done there too to come up with an official estimate. 

 

Hence much of the potential reserves are not included in these figures yet

[Luc 4,776]

Oil will NOT be irrelevant in 100 years. I HIGHLY doubt that. It's going to be a slow change over decades but 100 years is not enough. Not the way our world is right now. 

 

"​The Roadmap suggests that, by 2050, the EU should cut its emissions to 80% below 1990 levels through domestic reductions alone. It sets out milestones which form a cost-effective  pathway to this goal - reductions of the order of 40% by 2030 and 60% by 2040. It also shows how the main sectors responsible for Europe's emissions - power generation, industry, transport, buildings and construction, as well as agriculture - can make the transition to a low-carbon economy most cost-effectively."

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/index_en.htm

"Transport

While emissions from transport are still increasing today, they could be reduced to more than 60% below 1990 levels by 2050.

For passenger cars, we would first see further improvements in the fuel efficiency of cars with traditional petrol and diesel engines. After 2025, a shift to plug-in hybrid cars and electric cars will allow CO2 emissions from cars to be cut very steeply.

Planes will be powered largely by biofuels and also heavy duty vehicles (lorries) will not fully shift towards electro mobility. Biofuels used should be sustainable to avoid increased pressure on biodiversity and an increase of greenhouse gas emissions through changes in land use."

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/perspective/index_en.htm

"Power sector

The power sector has the biggest potential for cutting emissions. It can almost totally eliminate CO2 emissions by 2050. Electricity could partially replace fossil fuels in transport and heating.

Electricity will come from renewable sources like wind, solar, water and biomass or other sources that are low in carbon emissions like nuclear power plants or fossil fuel power stations equipped with carbon capture and storage technology.

The share of these clean technologies in power generation could increase rapidly, from 45% today, to around 60% in 2020 and almost 100% in 2050. For this to happen the cap on emissions from the power sector under the EU Emission Trading System will need to be strengthened and considerable investment put into smart grids."

 

These are actual goals and countries get a fine if they do not reach these goals.

[Economy 52,842]

Oil will NOT be irrelevant in 100 years. I HIGHLY doubt that. It's going to be a slow change over decades but 100 years is not enough. Not the way our world is right now. 

 

Thats what im saying. Oil has tones of uses. Oil may became outdated for somethings but not others

 

Europe hardly produces any electricity with oil anymore. And their cars they use there are so fuel efficient these days. Yet their decline in consumption since their peak is modest at best. Why?

 

ppl forget lots of oil is used for other products and things besides just electricity and fueling cars

 

take away oil for cars and electricity, and we will produce less CO2 and consume less oil in general, but wed still be consuming more oil without those 2 things than many ppl may realize  

[Morphine Prince 109,652]

"​The Roadmap suggests that, by 2050, the EU should cut its emissions to 80% below 1990 levels through domestic reductions alone. It sets out milestones which form a cost-effective  pathway to this goal - reductions of the order of 40% by 2030 and 60% by 2040. It also shows how the main sectors responsible for Europe's emissions - power generation, industry, transport, buildings and construction, as well as agriculture - can make the transition to a low-carbon economy most cost-effectively."

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/index_en.htm

"Transport

While emissions from transport are still increasing today, they could be reduced to more than 60% below 1990 levels by 2050.

For passenger cars, we would first see further improvements in the fuel efficiency of cars with traditional petrol and diesel engines. After 2025, a shift to plug-in hybrid cars and electric cars will allow CO2 emissions from cars to be cut very steeply.

Planes will be powered largely by biofuels and also heavy duty vehicles (lorries) will not fully shift towards electro mobility. Biofuels used should be sustainable to avoid increased pressure on biodiversity and an increase of greenhouse gas emissions through changes in land use."

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/perspective/index_en.htm

"Power sector

The power sector has the biggest potential for cutting emissions. It can almost totally eliminate CO2 emissions by 2050. Electricity could partially replace fossil fuels in transport and heating.

Electricity will come from renewable sources like wind, solar, water and biomass or other sources that are low in carbon emissions like nuclear power plants or fossil fuel power stations equipped with carbon capture and storage technology.

The share of these clean technologies in power generation could increase rapidly, from 45% today, to around 60% in 2020 and almost 100% in 2050. For this to happen the cap on emissions from the power sector under the EU Emission Trading System will need to be strengthened and considerable investment put into smart grids."

 

These are actual goals and countries get a fine if they do not reach these goals.

​Will the rest of the world follow though? 

[Economy 52,842]

"​The Roadmap suggests that, by 2050, the EU should cut its emissions to 80% below 1990 levels through domestic reductions alone. It sets out milestones which form a cost-effective  pathway to this goal - reductions of the order of 40% by 2030 and 60% by 2040. It also shows how the main sectors responsible for Europe's emissions - power generation, industry, transport, buildings and construction, as well as agriculture - can make the transition to a low-carbon economy most cost-effectively."

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/index_en.htm

"Transport

While emissions from transport are still increasing today, they could be reduced to more than 60% below 1990 levels by 2050.

For passenger cars, we would first see further improvements in the fuel efficiency of cars with traditional petrol and diesel engines. After 2025, a shift to plug-in hybrid cars and electric cars will allow CO2 emissions from cars to be cut very steeply.

Planes will be powered largely by biofuels and also heavy duty vehicles (lorries) will not fully shift towards electro mobility. Biofuels used should be sustainable to avoid increased pressure on biodiversity and an increase of greenhouse gas emissions through changes in land use."

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/roadmap/perspective/index_en.htm

"Power sector

The power sector has the biggest potential for cutting emissions. It can almost totally eliminate CO2 emissions by 2050. Electricity could partially replace fossil fuels in transport and heating.

Electricity will come from renewable sources like wind, solar, water and biomass or other sources that are low in carbon emissions like nuclear power plants or fossil fuel power stations equipped with carbon capture and storage technology.

The share of these clean technologies in power generation could increase rapidly, from 45% today, to around 60% in 2020 and almost 100% in 2050. For this to happen the cap on emissions from the power sector under the EU Emission Trading System will need to be strengthened and considerable investment put into smart grids."

 

These are actual goals and countries get a fine if they do not reach these goals.

​yeah, still off point tho. ur talking about emmissions not actual oil consumption

 

not all oil consumption produces teh same CO2. Burning oil (such as power generation or car usage) literally puts all CO2 in the air. Making a plastic out of it doesnt produce nearly as much pollution

 

emission reductions cannot be correlated to the actual amount oil consumption is being reduced by. a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions doesnt mean ur consuming 60% less oil

[Economy 52,842]

​Will the rest of the world follow though? 

​even if they do, like im trying to tell LUC, emmissions dont necessairily reflect the amount of oil being used

if u burn 1 litre of oil ull pollute more than the process of turning 1 litre of oil into a product

 

60% to 80% reduction goals in their emissions does not automatically equate to 60% to 80% less oil consumption

 

The reason ppl talk about electricity and cars the most, besides being 2 of the main uses yes, its also because its among the two uses for oil that actually pollute the most and therefore a bigger environmental concern

 

The amount of oil u use to make plastics or paints although it causes some pollution in the process yes, it doesnt nearly as much as out-right burning the oil like u do for power generation or fueling a car

[Luc 4,776]

​even if they do, like im trying to tell LUC, emmissions dont necessairily reflect the amount of oil being used

if u burn 1 litre of oil ull pollute more than the process of turning 1 litre of oil into a product

 

60% to 80% reduction goals in their emissions does not automatically equate to 60% to 80% less oil consumption

 

The reason ppl talk about electricity and cars the most, besides being 2 of the main uses yes, its also because its among the two uses for oil that actually pollute the most and therefore a bigger environmental concern

 

The amount of oil u use to make plastics or paints although it causes some pollution in the process yes, it doesnt nearly as much as out-right burning the oil like u do for power generation or fueling a car

​http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/us-oil-products-consumption-v2.png

still a large percentage though

[Economy 52,842]

​http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/us-oil-products-consumption-v2.png

still a large percentage though

​sorry the link u put there isnt working for me

what does it say?

 

Anyway my point is simple. Our consumption may drop quite a bit should we eliminate oil usage for all the things were envisioning getting rid of oil for

 

But unless theres some huge synthetic revolution, for a huge amount of products and other uses we will still consume quite a bit...

 

Were currently consuming 93 million barrels of oil a day. The 1.6 trillion barrels of oil in "proven recoverable reserves" are only enough to last 48 years at that rate...

 

So even if with all the growth in emerging markets and population growth we can cut consumption in half, in about 100 years wed have consumed all these reserves

 

Now we wont actually run out in 100 years because recoverable reserves are always rising... But most of the growth will be in unconventional oil now conventional oil.

 

Saudi-Arabia and Middle Eastern oil already has a 50% recovery rate vs 10% or less for unconventional reserves... There is less potential for their reserves to grow a lot and they will depleat much faster

 

If most oil production right now is still conventional, conventional oil is only a small portion of worlds total oil, and its reserves have less room to grow... in this path, those reserves will run out first (especially since they are cheaper and will be pumped out at a faster rate)

 

When this happens, the Countries that have the most unconventional reserves (Canada, US and Venezuela) will be the ones left to supply the world on however much it is it still consumes

[Woolfsmck 2,763]

Like Economy says, reducing or eliminating oil and coal from electricity production and transportation will lower consumption quite a bit, but think about things like, tires,plactics, packaging, lubrication, most anything synthetic all originate in petroleum.  I can't see how oil would be useless until there is a viable, economic alternative.