Daily Economy Thread

[Luc 4,776]

1 hour ago, Economy said:

Source?

 

And thats great. Here in North America it isnt as great. Last time i checked the US was 62.5% and Canada 65%  

 

Europe needs to work on productivity tho. Only a handful of Nations in EU have good productivity per worker (Like Switzerland, Germany, Netherlands etc)

Productivity in the EU is actually great, especially in countries like France. They want to flexibilize the labour market to become more competitive, though, and that will lead to lower productivity.

Source: 

http://www.nu.nl/economie/4252895/steeds-meer-europeanen-vinden-betaald-werk.html

What the EU (and in particular the Eurozone) need to work on is more innovation, anti-cyclical government debt policy and minimizing differences between member states. Especially Germany has had a very wrong approach to the Eurocrisis. A combination of French policy (more spending, bigger deficit) and German policy (higher retirement age and more liberalisation) would be perfect to satisfy the public and cause long term growth. The crisis would've been over by now, like in the US.

[Economy 52,844]

2 hours ago, Luc said:

Productivity in the EU is actually great, especially in countries like France. They want to flexibilize the labour market to become more competitive, though, and that will lead to lower productivity.

Source: 

http://www.nu.nl/economie/4252895/steeds-meer-europeanen-vinden-betaald-werk.html

What the EU (and in particular the Eurozone) need to work on is more innovation, anti-cyclical government debt policy and minimizing differences between member states. Especially Germany has had a very wrong approach to the Eurocrisis. A combination of French policy (more spending, bigger deficit) and German policy (higher retirement age and more liberalisation) would be perfect to satisfy the public and cause long term growth. The crisis would've been over by now, like in the US.

i dont know what the productivity numbers are on an index for everyone...

 

But most of Europe (with exeption of a few Nations) have a lower GDP per Capita than Canada or the US despite a higher participation rate. That tells me productivity must be lower.

 

And I agree with that. Now is time for more spending and deficits. Thats a long as its going to investments that pay back such as infrastructure or modernization of systems and Government agencies/programs. If its just to spend more on social programs, as tempting as that is, right now isnt the time to get geberous with that

 

And god the retirement age. I keep making a case about that and I so agree with you. Retirement age at 65 is outdated and straining the system. It must be raised a couple of years. Props to Countries like Germany who finally did it

 

Here in Canada the Conservatives raised old age security (a supplement thats added to regular retirement) to age 67 and now Liberals wanna reverse it. Dumb move  

[Luc 4,776]

3 hours ago, Economy said:

i dont know what the productivity numbers are on an index for everyone...

 

But most of Europe (with exeption of a few Nations) have a lower GDP per Capita than Canada or the US despite a higher participation rate. That tells me productivity must be lower.

 

And I agree with that. Now is time for more spending and deficits. Thats a long as its going to investments that pay back such as infrastructure or modernization of systems and Government agencies/programs. If its just to spend more on social programs, as tempting as that is, right now isnt the time to get geberous with that

 

And god the retirement age. I keep making a case about that and I so agree with you. Retirement age at 65 is outdated and straining the system. It must be raised a couple of years. Props to Countries like Germany who finally did it

 

Here in Canada the Conservatives raised old age security (a supplement thats added to regular retirement) to age 67 and now Liberals wanna reverse it. Dumb move  

Social security spending is better to help the economy on the short term, tbh, because all the money will end up being spent or invested. Infrastructure is good too, but more on the long term. I think infrastructure is something that should at all times be given attention to. 

Now is not the perfect time for deficit spending... that was probably in 2010. But if for example Germany took inflationary measures that support growth, like wage growth and higher social security, it would cause more import (higher consumption) and less export (higher wages, less competitive), resulting in actual growth in buying power in Germany and a way out of the crisis for countries like Greece, that have a big trade deficit but noone to export to, while Germany is so (artificially) competitive that it exports way too much.

Not to say that the root of the Eurocrisis is Germany, but just saying that Germany has been really selfish in the Eurocrisis by focusing on reducing their own government debt, even though it is one of the biggest causes of slow economic growth in France, Southern Europe and Germany itself.

[Economy 52,844]

59 minutes ago, Luc said:

Social security spending is better to help the economy on the short term, tbh, because all the money will end up being spent or invested. Infrastructure is good too, but more on the long term. I think infrastructure is something that should at all times be given attention to. 

Now is not the perfect time for deficit spending... that was probably in 2010. But if for example Germany took inflationary measures that support growth, like wage growth and higher social security, it would cause more import (higher consumption) and less export (higher wages, less competitive), resulting in actual growth in buying power in Germany and a way out of the crisis for countries like Greece, that have a big trade deficit but noone to export to, while Germany is so (artificially) competitive that it exports way too much.

Not to say that the root of the Eurocrisis is Germany, but just saying that Germany has been really selfish in the Eurocrisis by focusing on reducing their own government debt, even though it is one of the biggest causes of slow economic growth in France, Southern Europe and Germany itself.

Its true it gets spent but it isnt an investment cause it doesnt last. The moment u turn off the tap the benefits are gone

 

wotj infrastructure you create construction jobs, have the ripple effect of getting material orders from factories, and when its done the infrastructure supports demand

 

and i agree. Trade inbalances and account deficits dont help anyone in the long term. The people with trade surpluses also get hurt when their customers finally crack because they are too broke

 

the money has to come from somewhere. Here in Canada we had huge trade deficits between 2009-2013 (we still do but its much smaller again) because our consumption after recession declined less than our exports

 

Our Government deficits remained below 3% of GDP in all years exept 2008/2009. All the debt was accumulated at the consumer level which is astronomical at the moment

 

USA by contrast which also maintained a trade deficit after 2008 crisis (although unlike ours, it shrank), Consumer debt actually deleveraged. How is that possible? Its because the US did huge fiscal stimulus and did the spending for the consumer while people were rebuilding their finances. So the debt was accumulated at the State Level

 

If you have a negative trade balance, you are accumulating debt in one way or the other (or a combination of both). And the result is economic deterioration over time that will hurt your buyers as well

[Luc 4,776]

5 hours ago, Economy said:

Its true it gets spent but it isnt an investment cause it doesnt last. The moment u turn off the tap the benefits are gone

 

wotj infrastructure you create construction jobs, have the ripple effect of getting material orders from factories, and when its done the infrastructure supports demand

 

and i agree. Trade inbalances and account deficits dont help anyone in the long term. The people with trade surpluses also get hurt when their customers finally crack because they are too broke

 

the money has to come from somewhere. Here in Canada we had huge trade deficits between 2009-2013 (we still do but its much smaller again) because our consumption after recession declined less than our exports

 

Our Government deficits remained below 3% of GDP in all years exept 2008/2009. All the debt was accumulated at the consumer level which is astronomical at the moment

 

USA by contrast which also maintained a trade deficit after 2008 crisis (although unlike ours, it shrank), Consumer debt actually deleveraged. How is that possible? Its because the US did huge fiscal stimulus and did the spending for the consumer while people were rebuilding their finances. So the debt was accumulated at the State Level

 

If you have a negative trade balance, you are accumulating debt in one way or the other (or a combination of both). And the result is economic deterioration over time that will hurt your buyers as well

The Netherlands is quite scary. I fear financial instability, because:

- trade surplus of 10%, as big as countries like Qatar and UAE

- house prices skyrocketing in the cities (Amsterdam: 17% rise in 2015, with 9% in the last quarter!!)

- house prices declining in other places. This makes it hard for the government to take measures that doesn't make one side worse than before.

- low interest rates seriously hurt pension funds. Pension funds and insurances own like 250% of GDP in money.

- high consumer debt (the total debt is higher than in Greece, Spain, etc!!)

[Economy 52,844]

On April 27, 2016 at 4:20 AM, Luc said:

The Netherlands is quite scary. I fear financial instability, because:

- trade surplus of 10%, as big as countries like Qatar and UAE

- house prices skyrocketing in the cities (Amsterdam: 17% rise in 2015, with 9% in the last quarter!!)

- house prices declining in other places. This makes it hard for the government to take measures that doesn't make one side worse than before.

- low interest rates seriously hurt pension funds. Pension funds and insurances own like 250% of GDP in money.

- high consumer debt (the total debt is higher than in Greece, Spain, etc!!)

Welcome to Canadas issues. Home prices as of last year have finally began to fall in most provinces

 

Average National prices still rose 16% last 12 months only because of Toronto and Vancouver  

 

Most Countries that have done well since financial crisis have very leveraged consumers. I know Sweden for example has very higu consumer debt also and high home prices

 

btw u should read my latest thread on the Toronto condo boom

 

Theres actually more skyscrapers under construction in Toronto than all of the rest of North America combined!!!! And many of these skyscrapers under construction are around 300 metres tall (1000ft)!!!!!!

 

In 2012 it peaked at 147 skycrappers under construction but even now as of early 2016 its held steady at 130 as new get approved

 

the scariest thing is 1/3 of these condos are empty. Builders have demand because wealthy investors overseas have taken a liking to Toronto and are buying up tones of units but demand is artificial  

[Luc 4,776]

4 hours ago, Economy said:

Welcome to Canadas issues. Home prices as of last year have finally began to fall in most provinces

 

Average National prices still rose 16% last 12 months only because of Toronto and Vancouver  

 

Most Countries that have done well since financial crisis have very leveraged consumers. I know Sweden for example has very higu consumer debt also and high home prices

 

btw u should read my latest thread on the Toronto condo boom

 

Theres actually more skyscrapers under construction in Toronto than all of the rest of North America combined!!!! And many of these skyscrapers under construction are around 300 metres tall (1000ft)!!!!!!

 

In 2012 it peaked at 147 skycrappers under construction but even now as of early 2016 its held steady at 130 as new get approved

 

the scariest thing is 1/3 of these condos are empty. Builders have demand because wealthy investors overseas have taken a liking to Toronto and are buying up tones of units but demand is artificial  

Yet the consumer debt as part of the GDP is two times higher in the Netherlands than in Germany. Only Cyprus has similar total debt  

[Economy 52,844]

59 minutes ago, Luc said:

Yet the consumer debt as part of the GDP is two times higher in the Netherlands than in Germany. Only Cyprus has similar total debt  

Interest rates too low for state of economy. Thats what happens

[Economy 52,844]

Im starting to think the US will never raise rates cuz the economy is stuck in eternal slow growth

 

expectations for rate hike delayed yet again 

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-set-for-comeback-as-investors-put-fed-behind-them-2016-05-20

[littlepotter 76,610]

I'd like to see a thread like this on a Katy Perry forum

Spoiler

or any forum  

Spoiler

queens of maturity

 

 

[Economy 52,844]

1 hour ago, littlepotter said:

I'd like to see a thread like this on a Katy Perry forum

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or any forum  

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queens of maturity

 

 

Haha so true 

[politicqxs 358]

feeling sorry for japan 

[Economy 52,844]

6 hours ago, Licq said:

feeling sorry for japan 

I gotta go to work so no time for a long post but... Their situation is pretty chronic  

[politicqxs 358]

45 minutes ago, Economy said:

I gotta go to work so no time for a long post but... Their situation is pretty chronic  

exacerbated by the brexit 

 

what about china? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-20/billionaire-li-ka-shing-says-china-s-economic-outlook-is-bright

li kashing thinks China's economic future outlook is bright ..hhmm

[Woolfsmck 2,763]

Since natural disasters are the only problems that Japan can't control, I have to say that a lot of their economic problems are self induced