US Charts Discussion - DWUW IMPACTS RADIO TODAY! (11/5)

[Lion Heart 15,041]

Speaking of DWUW, I heard the song on my way back to school for the first time ever. 

 

 

[nick4bty 2,758]

I've been lurking this thread since last july, it was pretty much entertaining, to say the least. Then there was this most satisfying moment in the first hours of DWUW release when we've all been struck by its perfection as a song and a single. We were also wondering how much more amazing Venus could've been, as it was chosen as the next official single. Gosh, we were lucky Gaga/Interscope switched that fast. 

 

I just pre-ordered ARTPOP on Amazon 

 

If Interscope went ahead with Venus as the next single, things would've been a mess. I mean, it's already down to #34 on iTunes. At least DWUW is already providing its stability. 

[KaanBTW 5,238]

497k for ARTPOP.

[Dodo 313]

If Interscope went ahead with Venus as the next single, things would've been a mess. I mean, it's already down to #34 on iTunes. At least DWUW is already providing its stability. 

 

i don't even wanna imagine the flop venus would have delivered 

 

i mean its a good song but theres so much better on ARTPOP .. 

[Just A Holy Fool 2,489]

DWUW coming for Unconditionally and its weave!

 

[Pure Adrenaline 1,518]

On projecting ARTPOP first week sales; the one measure you can't use is the sales of the lead single - compare Beyonce's 4 with Carly Rae Jepsen's Kiss

 

Better to use artist's previous album's sales and preorders.

 

On preorders the sales of Prism approximately divide out as follows: 

 

itunes preorders 50K,

itunes completes without preorder 40K,

other sales (physicals mainly) 200K. 

  (itunes is 31%, rest is 69% about normal)

 

The figures for Bangerz are almost the same as for Prism given the 'complete my albums' seen on Wrecking Ball

 

So we can work out a figure for ARTPOP as follows:

  - itunes preorders 110K+ (figure from instant downloads of Venus, but this will increase by album release)

  - itunes completes without preorder ???

  - other sales (physicals mainly) ???

 

Feel free to work out a total.

interesting ..... so if Katy's pre-orders were 50k and her total sales were let's round them to 290k this means that she sold half of the pre-orders multiplied by 10 plus the pre-orders figures. And if we could make simple equation *based on the Prism's sales ,where me not being chart expert as Magoo, it would looks something like this: A=(n/2)*10 + y, where n=album pre-orders, y=itunes completes without preorder=n-n/5

 

1.)  So my bet is A= (110/2)*10+88=638k that would be like the ultimate variant, when we take the Prism's % = ARTPOP % (itunes is 31%, rest is 69% about normal) -> itunes= 198k, other sales = 440k

 

2.) But since I didn't get very well the itunes pre-order and the itunes complete without pre-order and I'm not sure whether I should add or get off, from the account the 'y' so If is otherwise where we have to take out the y from the account this means A=638-88= 550k for ARTPOP

 

CONCLUSION: I predict sales btw 550 - 650k for ARTPOP first week! :) 

[nick4bty 2,758]

i don't even wanna imagine the flop venus would have delivered 

 

i mean its a good song but theres so much better on ARTPOP .. 

 

It literally would've been Judas all over again. I still don't know how Interscope ever though Judas would be a better single over TEOG, I'm just glad they realized the potential in DWUW before Venus was released. 

[Alchemist 0]

nnnn bye with all that math.

 

1.5 mil first week for ARTPOP

[MonsterOfSpain 8,281]

 

 

CONCLUSION: I predict sales btw 550 - 650k for ARTPOP first week! :) 

 

:clap: That's exactly my predictions from months ago.

[Bt1 5,213]

interesting ..... so if Katy's pre-orders were 50k and her total sales were let's round them to 290k this means that she sold half of the pre-orders multiplied by 10 plus the pre-orders figures. And if we could make simple equation *based on the Prism's sales ,where me not being chart expert as Magoo, it would looks something like this: A=(n/2)*10 + y, where n=album pre-orders, y=itunes completes without preorder=n-n/5

 

1.)  So my bet is A= (110/2)*10+88=638k that would be like the ultimate variant, when we take the Prism's % = ARTPOP % (itunes is 31%, rest is 69% about normal) -> itunes= 198k, other sales = 440k

 

2.) But since I didn't get very well the itunes pre-order and the itunes complete without pre-order and I'm not sure whether I should add or get off, from the account the 'y' so If is otherwise where we have to take out the y from the account this means A=638-88= 550k for ARTPOP

 

CONCLUSION: I predict sales btw 550 - 650k for ARTPOP first week! :) 

That sounds like a good prediction.

[Foivos 64]

ARTPOP's preorders from amazon.com are ~50k so far. It is really good!!!!

 

I predict first week:

 

Digital sales : 210.000 (130k preorders from Itunes + Itunes sales after release and amazon mp3)

Physical sales : 315.000 (based on regular percentage of digital sales, normally 1,4*digital sales )

 

Total first week : 525.000 copies. 

 

edit: I hope for a 600k+ debut!

[Dodo 313]

It literally would've been Judas all over again. I still don't know how Interscope ever though Judas would be a better single over TEOG, I'm just glad they realized the potential in DWUW before Venus was released. 

 

well 

 

Judas had some pretty good melodys its just the theme of the song was a mess. Which teenager wants to sing about loving judas lol 

[SomethingMore 1,701]

450k is still in range imo.

 

so this is the promo so far, someone please clarify if i'm missing something:

11/3 : YT awards

11/4 : Dope

11/11: AP

11/16 : SNL

11/?? : AMA

 

that's all i remember

 

Glee episode (Nov 7th) can be considered as promo (it will air in ARTPOP's release week - Applause &  MTN will be performed).

[Blank Space 0]

Did 2 RTM surveys cuz I'm bad kid of course I changed my ip to US one ;]

[jhonyguy04 3]

ARTPOP is about to leak.