2026 Midterm Discussions (Polls, updates, and more)

[LateToCult 42,080]

LET’s KICK THIS B*TCH OFF 

 

Compared to 2022 (the midterms under Biden), 2026 has so far seen less requests for mail-in ballots from Democrats and a bump in requests by Republicans and Independents. There’s been a lot of hubbub about USPS in the news so it could mean Democrats are holding out to vote in-person to make sure their vote isn’t thrown out. Or it could mean that the polls got it wrong yet again. Who knows. 
 

Day 1, baby. 

[PartySick 173,957]

I'm so curious how Texas is gonna go. Republicans are clearly terrified considering they've booted over a million people off the voter rolls with less than two months to re-register and closed down nearly 100 polling places in Democratic strongholds.

But will that boldface cheating and cowardice be enough to overcome the nation wide sentiment that's overwhelmingly turning battleground states blue, red states purple, and deep MAGA states red?

Talarico's WORST polls have him TIED with Paxton. In a straight up fair election, he wins by 1-5 points. I'm just worried Republicans may have successfully rigged it JUST enough to retain the seat with that corrupt freak.

Anyway, nearly every betting market and well known prediction pollster has Democrats with a 50%+ chance of taking the senate and a 90%+ chance of taking the house  

[PartySick 173,957]

Speaking of odds, here are the current Polymarket betting odds of some key states  

Georgia: Ossof (D) 94%

North Carolina: Cooper (D) 92% (FLIP)

Maine: Jackson (D) 69% (FLIP)

Michigan: El-Sayed (D) 62%

Ohio: Brown (D) 54% (FLIP)

Alaska: Peltola (D) 60% (FLIP)

Texas: Paxton (R) 53%

Iowa: Hinsen (R) 64%

Kansas: Marshall (R) 82%

Florida: Moody (R) 92% (FLOP )

Senate control: Democrats 52%

Let's just ignore my goddamn state being a disaster and appreciate that Paxton has the very foundation of Republicanism behind him yet he's basically a coin-flip away from losing Texas to a Democrat  blue Texas is and has been an inevitability so light your Alejandro candles that we see it happen this November.

Even if we lose Texas and all these predictions come to pass, that still nets Democrats control of the US senate 51 to 49  

[Bronco 27,216]

50 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

LET’s KICK THIS B*TCH OFF 

 

Compared to 2022 (the midterms under Biden), 2026 has so far seen less requests for mail-in ballots from Democrats and a bump in requests by Republicans and Independents. There’s been a lot of hubbub about USPS in the news so it could mean Democrats are holding out to vote in-person to make sure their vote isn’t thrown out. Or it could mean that the polls got it wrong yet again. Who knows. 
 

Day 1, baby. 

I'm confused. The data in that tweet shows a + on 2024 for Dems and a decrease for Reps & indys on 2024. 

[PartySick 173,957]

Just now, Bronco said:

I'm confused. The data in that tweet shows a + on 2024 for Dems and a decrease for Reps & indys on 2024. 

I think the tweet is in reference to 2024 but Miss Late was referencing the 2022 midterm.

Which is appropriate 'cause midterms are totally different beasts from presidential elections

[TheBeast 1,583]

35 minutes ago, PartySick said:

Speaking of odds, here are the current Polymarket betting odds of some key states  

Georgia: Ossof (D) 94%

North Carolina: Cooper (D) 92% (FLIP)

Maine: Jackson (D) 69% (FLIP)

Michigan: El-Sayed (D) 62%

Ohio: Brown (D) 54% (FLIP)

Alaska: Peltola (D) 60% (FLIP)

Texas: Paxton (R) 53%

Iowa: Hinsen (R) 64%

Kansas: Marshall (R) 82%

Florida: Moody (R) 92% (FLOP )

Senate control: Democrats 52%

Let's just ignore my goddamn state being a disaster and appreciate that Paxton has the very foundation of Republicanism behind him yet he's basically a coin-flip away from losing Texas to a Democrat  blue Texas is and has been an inevitability so light your Alejandro candles that we see it happen this November.

Even if we lose Texas and all these predictions come to pass, that still nets Democrats control of the US senate 51 to 49  

Florida is literally the worst. 

Fun fact - I moved from Louisiana to Orlando around 15 years ago because Florida was less conservative than Louisiana and I felt safer being an LGBTQIA person. But this state has become SO red that Florida is nearly just as unsafe for people who arent white, straight men.

How did we get here? 

[Bronco 27,216]

42 minutes ago, PartySick said:

Speaking of odds, here are the current Polymarket betting odds of some key states  

Georgia: Ossof (D) 94%

North Carolina: Cooper (D) 92% (FLIP)

Maine: Jackson (D) 69% (FLIP)

Michigan: El-Sayed (D) 62%

Ohio: Brown (D) 54% (FLIP)

Alaska: Peltola (D) 60% (FLIP)

Texas: Paxton (R) 53%

Iowa: Hinsen (R) 64%

Kansas: Marshall (R) 82%

Florida: Moody (R) 92% (FLOP )

Senate control: Democrats 52%

Let's just ignore my goddamn state being a disaster and appreciate that Paxton has the very foundation of Republicanism behind him yet he's basically a coin-flip away from losing Texas to a Democrat  blue Texas is and has been an inevitability so light your Alejandro candles that we see it happen this November.

Even if we lose Texas and all these predictions come to pass, that still nets Democrats control of the US senate 51 to 49  

Would be an insanely good night. 

And with the way things are going, I'd be willing to risk a bet on picking up Iowa. 

[DopeEnigma 1,804]

I’m going to remain hopeful, if the Dems do win both houses I cannot wait for the BS mental breakdown that orange psycho will have, it will be hilarious 

[PartySick 173,957]

27 minutes ago, TheBeast said:

Florida is literally the worst. 

Fun fact - I moved from Louisiana to Orlando around 15 years ago because Florida was less conservative than Louisiana and I felt safer being an LGBTQIA person. But this state has become SO red that Florida is nearly just as unsafe for people who arent white, straight men.

How did we get here? 

DeSantis  

He barely won the governorship and every single policy he's enacted since has been an effort to absorb aging Republicans from other states which just makes this state redder and redder. I truly can't wait to leave forever  

I don't think they've done any quality polling here, they probably won't waste the money, but I imagine Nixon's odds suffer mostly due to her socialist label and how programmed Cuban voters in this state are to fear socialism.

She has an incredible ability to organize and galvanize other Latino and Hispanic blocs as well as black voters though and I'd assume college educated whites back her too so I'm not counting her out (and I'm enthusiastically voting for her) but my expectations are loooow 

Jolly might have a good chance at beating Donalds though. That's something, I guess  

Also, at least you live in Orlando  I'm DROWNING over here on the coast

[PartySick 173,957]

25 minutes ago, Bronco said:

Would be an insanely good night. 

And with the way things are going, I'd be willing to risk a bet on picking up Iowa. 

Swing states usually break one way or another. If Iowa's close I can definitely see that too  

[Bronco 27,216]

10 minutes ago, DopeEnigma said:

I’m going to remain hopeful, if the Dems do win both houses I cannot wait for the BS mental breakdown that orange psycho will have, it will be hilarious 

Honestly, I think he'll take it as a compliment. 

Like he's not campaigning in this cycle, he's barely putting his PAC cash flow towards it and is refusing to do battleground tours like traditional presidents do. 

Definitely almost wants the compliment of the Republicans not being able to win without him on the ticket for his ego

[SidewalkUnicorn 283]

1 hour ago, TheBeast said:

Florida is literally the worst. 

Fun fact - I moved from Louisiana to Orlando around 15 years ago because Florida was less conservative than Louisiana and I felt safer being an LGBTQIA person. But this state has become SO red that Florida is nearly just as unsafe for people who arent white, straight men.

How did we get here? 

Florida is such a dumpster fire. Nice beaches. Beautiful beaches.  But that’s all I can say positive about it. My sister lived there for 30 years and finally ditched that joint for Minnesota this year. Praise. 

[SidewalkUnicorn 283]

In my soul I am feeling that Talarico will eke out a win by a point or two. 
 

I’m with most of the predictions listed above except I could see TX flipping and OH not. I don’t trust Ohio. I just don’t. The only super Trumpie branch of my family lives there and I just…my fingers are crossed for Brown, but still.

i also predict a 100% chance that Jon Ossoff and Abdul will remain sexy.

[Morphine Prince 109,844]

If Talarico wins I will never shut up about it. I started paying attention to him around 3 years ago and always believed he had the qualities to win a statewide race in Texas. 

[LateToCult 42,080]

4 hours ago, PartySick said:

Let's just ignore my goddamn state being a disaster and appreciate that Paxton has the very foundation of Republicanism behind him yet he's basically a coin-flip away from losing Texas to a Democrat  blue Texas is and has been an inevitability so light your Alejandro candles that we see it happen this November.

Republicans are about to spend some real cash in Texas for Paxton. There’s no doubt in my mind that their internals show Talerico ahead. The fact that they’re gonna divert tens of millions to a market as expensive as Texas says a lot. Ultimately I think it will make a difference in the race and give Paxton a comfortable win as long as he doesn’t **** up from now until Election Day.