Fox Polls: Blue TX, OH, NC, ME & Red MI

[PartySick 173,127]

I'll give you their poll numbers and link to the respective articles in the state names so you can read them and see further insights if you'd like:

I believe all of these polls are "registered voters". Margins typically look better for Dems among likely voters, especially in years like this where Democratic enthusiasm is high.

Texas: 🔵Talarico 51% 🔴Paxton 48%

Ohio: 🔵Brown 53% 🔴Husted 45%

North Carolina: 🔵Cooper 57% 🔴Whatley 42%

Maine: 🔵Jackson 48% 🔴Collins 46%

Michigan: 🔴Rogers 51% 🔵El-Sayed 47%

In truth, if we're losing Michigan, we're losing all these races  El-Sayed is still largely favored to win, so nobody panic just yet. Collins typically over performs and Ohio and Texas are still deep red, so nobody celebrate just yet either. The races are just incredibly...interesting.

Common threads: voters hate Trump more than they fear socialism, the economy is crap and voters blame Republicans, the Iran war remains deeply unpopular and voters know who is responsible for it, ICE is still a massive issue, and Epstein ain't going away.

[PartySick 173,127]

Oh, and remember that while Fox News is sh*t, their polling is considered high quality

[Bronco 26,232]

1 hour ago, PartySick said:

Oh, and remember that while Fox News is sh*t, their polling is considered high quality

High quality, but also has been off i  recent cycles. So dubious how real these are. 

That said. I saw a twitter breakdown for the Texas poll that said its voter split was essentially R+15 and Paxton is still coming 3% behind Talarico despite that massive headstart in the poll. Really shows just how bad if a candidate he is.

 

I'm also going to say this Maine poll should be concerning. Susan Collins has won with far worse numbers in the polling previously so a 2% lead for her rival is nothing. 

[Guillaume Hamon 7,023]

Jackson winning Maine. 

[Morphine Prince 109,729]

For anyone wondering about Texas…. don’t get too excited but for context, in 2018 (2 years into Trump’s first term), Cruz beat O’Rourke by just 2% and polls always had him winning. 

Some polls have Talarico winning in midterms when Trump is as unpopular as ever and Paxton is a terrible candidate, yes, even worse than Cruz. 

There is some hope but as a Texan I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Paxton wins with a healthy margin.

 

[PartySick 173,127]

1 hour ago, Morphine Prince said:

For anyone wondering about Texas…. don’t get too excited but for context, in 2018 (2 years into Trump’s first term), Cruz beat O’Rourke by just 2% and polls always had him winning. 

Some polls have Talarico winning in midterms when Trump is as unpopular as ever and Paxton is a terrible candidate, yes, even worse than Cruz. 

There is some hope but as a Texan I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Paxton wins with a healthy margin.

If it's going to happen any time soon, now is the time.

Paxton is deeply unpopular and flawed to the point that he's struggling to raise money with even the usual rich donors who don't want to be tied to him. Add in a depressed Republican voter base with enthusiastic Democratic voters and...it's absolutely doable.

Nate Silver also puts Talarico at like 63% likelihood of winning, for whatever that's worth.

Imma need Texas to do it 'cause I know my f*ckass state won't even elect the crappier Democrat.

[Bronco 26,232]

1 hour ago, Morphine Prince said:

For anyone wondering about Texas…. don’t get too excited but for context, in 2018 (2 years into Trump’s first term), Cruz beat O’Rourke by just 2% and polls always had him winning. 

Some polls have Talarico winning in midterms when Trump is as unpopular as ever and Paxton is a terrible candidate, yes, even worse than Cruz. 

There is some hope but as a Texan I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Paxton wins with a healthy margin.

 

There's a lot going on with Paxton to the point where I definitely think this is the best chance the Dems have ever had, but even if Paxton wins its going to be a narrow margin. 

Like the main Senate GOP PAC is thus far refusing to donate to Paxton's campaign. Paxton's got a serious campaign fund shortage vs Talarico. And like Paxton still hasn't managed to start getting TV adverts out giving Talarico about a month so far of uninterupted space on the air waves. 

I definitely think that race is going to be decided by the slimmest of margins, no one's walking it. 

[LateToCult 41,995]

Baby, these states are either gonna be 10+ Republican or 0.2+ Democrat. No inbetween. 

Edited 1 hour ago by LateToCult

[PartySick 173,127]

56 minutes ago, LateToCult said:

Baby, these states are either gonna be 10+ Republican or 0.2+ Democrat. No inbetween. 

Hate that you're probably right  

I'm not even staying up on election night 'cause I'll develop ulcers and then grow a second stomach just to hold more ulcers