PartySick 174,044 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 I'll give you their poll numbers and link to the respective articles in the state names so you can read them and see further insights if you'd like: I believe all of these polls are "registered voters". Margins typically look better for Dems among likely voters, especially in years like this where Democratic enthusiasm is high. Texas: 🔵Talarico 51% 🔴Paxton 48% Ohio: 🔵Brown 53% 🔴Husted 45% North Carolina: 🔵Cooper 57% 🔴Whatley 42% Maine: 🔵Jackson 48% 🔴Collins 46% Michigan: 🔴Rogers 51% 🔵El-Sayed 47% In truth, if we're losing Michigan, we're losing all these races El-Sayed is still largely favored to win, so nobody panic just yet. Collins typically over performs and Ohio and Texas are still deep red, so nobody celebrate just yet either. The races are just incredibly...interesting. Common threads: voters hate Trump more than they fear socialism, the economy is crap and voters blame Republicans, the Iran war remains deeply unpopular and voters know who is responsible for it, ICE is still a massive issue, and Epstein ain't going away. Whimsical bitch Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 174,044 Posted August 16 Author Share Posted August 16 Oh, and remember that while Fox News is sh*t, their polling is considered high quality Whimsical bitch Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco 27,303 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 hour ago, PartySick said: Oh, and remember that while Fox News is sh*t, their polling is considered high quality High quality, but also has been off i recent cycles. So dubious how real these are. That said. I saw a twitter breakdown for the Texas poll that said its voter split was essentially R+15 and Paxton is still coming 3% behind Talarico despite that massive headstart in the poll. Really shows just how bad if a candidate he is. I'm also going to say this Maine poll should be concerning. Susan Collins has won with far worse numbers in the polling previously so a 2% lead for her rival is nothing. The gays know how to party 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guillaume Hamon 7,040 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Jackson winning Maine. 6 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morphine Prince 109,868 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 For anyone wondering about Texas…. don’t get too excited but for context, in 2018 (2 years into Trump’s first term), Cruz beat O’Rourke by just 2% and polls always had him winning. Some polls have Talarico winning in midterms when Trump is as unpopular as ever and Paxton is a terrible candidate, yes, even worse than Cruz. There is some hope but as a Texan I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Paxton wins with a healthy margin. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 174,044 Posted August 16 Author Share Posted August 16 1 hour ago, Morphine Prince said: For anyone wondering about Texas…. don’t get too excited but for context, in 2018 (2 years into Trump’s first term), Cruz beat O’Rourke by just 2% and polls always had him winning. Some polls have Talarico winning in midterms when Trump is as unpopular as ever and Paxton is a terrible candidate, yes, even worse than Cruz. There is some hope but as a Texan I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Paxton wins with a healthy margin. If it's going to happen any time soon, now is the time. Paxton is deeply unpopular and flawed to the point that he's struggling to raise money with even the usual rich donors who don't want to be tied to him. Add in a depressed Republican voter base with enthusiastic Democratic voters and...it's absolutely doable. Nate Silver also puts Talarico at like 63% likelihood of winning, for whatever that's worth. Imma need Texas to do it 'cause I know my f*ckass state won't even elect the crappier Democrat. Whimsical bitch 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco 27,303 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 hour ago, Morphine Prince said: For anyone wondering about Texas…. don’t get too excited but for context, in 2018 (2 years into Trump’s first term), Cruz beat O’Rourke by just 2% and polls always had him winning. Some polls have Talarico winning in midterms when Trump is as unpopular as ever and Paxton is a terrible candidate, yes, even worse than Cruz. There is some hope but as a Texan I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Paxton wins with a healthy margin. There's a lot going on with Paxton to the point where I definitely think this is the best chance the Dems have ever had, but even if Paxton wins its going to be a narrow margin. Like the main Senate GOP PAC is thus far refusing to donate to Paxton's campaign. Paxton's got a serious campaign fund shortage vs Talarico. And like Paxton still hasn't managed to start getting TV adverts out giving Talarico about a month so far of uninterupted space on the air waves. I definitely think that race is going to be decided by the slimmest of margins, no one's walking it. The gays know how to party 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LateToCult 42,086 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 (edited) Baby, these states are either gonna be 10+ Republican or 0.2+ Democrat. No inbetween. Edited August 16 by LateToCult 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 174,044 Posted August 16 Author Share Posted August 16 56 minutes ago, LateToCult said: Baby, these states are either gonna be 10+ Republican or 0.2+ Democrat. No inbetween. Hate that you're probably right I'm not even staying up on election night 'cause I'll develop ulcers and then grow a second stomach just to hold more ulcers Whimsical bitch 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lextyr97 20,834 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 People NEED to get out and vote blue for the love of god. We need to put a stop to this regime 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ilia Malinin 3,074 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 9 hours ago, PartySick said: Ohio still deep red i hate living in this godforsaken state everyone keeps saying "oh, he's back, he's back!" but the truth is i never left! Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAMROD 117,874 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 May this come true, we need all blue mid term. May all the gay gods make this happen. (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ✧*:･ﾟ ⁱᵐ'ᵐᵃ ʰⁱᵗ ᵈᵉᶠʳᵒˢᵗ ᵒⁿ ʸᵃ, ˡᵉᵗ'ˢ ᵍᵉᵗ ⁱᵗ ᵇˡᵃᶻⁱⁿᵍ﹗ (*´艸｀*) ♡♡♡ Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economy 53,048 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 9 hours ago, PartySick said: Oh, and remember that while Fox News is sh*t, their polling is considered high quality Despite the growing intolerance to nuance now a days, sometimes two things can be true at once... Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharkmanthaC 115,109 Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Voting Roy Cooper always. she/her/hers 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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