Gold Derby: Gaga leads early Grammy predictions

[palma 8,304]

Sorry if AP but Gold Derby (leading website on award predictions) speculates Gaga's frontrunning in early Grammy predictions. Read here or below:

"Lady Gaga leads early 2026 Grammy predictions

As the first round of voting approaches, the 14-time winner ranks most likely for noms in Album, Song, and Record of the Year, with Kendrick Lamar close behind.

It's been nearly one month since the eligibility window for the 2026 Grammy Awards ended, and already, the competition for the trophies, which will be handed out on Feb. 1, is looking stiff.

The Gold Derby predictions for the top four categories at the Grammys have already shed some light on the major races, serving as a snapshot for where sentiments lie as the start of the first round of voting approaches on Oct. 3 and runs to Oct. 15. 

Nominees will then be announced on Nov. 7, and final round voting will run from Dec. 12 to Jan. 5.

Album of the Year

Lady Gaga's sixth studio album, Mayhem, marked the singer's long awaited return to pop in the vein of her breakout album, The Fame, and it could mean a return to the Grammys stage in a major way. The 14-time winner most recently took home a Grammy earlier this year for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance with her Bruno Mars collaboration "Die With a Smile." Mayhem currently tops Gold Derby's combined ranking of nomination predictions.

Record of the Year

But hot on Gaga's heals is Kendrick Lamar, who won five Grammys in 2025 with his mega-hit "Not Like Us." His album GNX and its lead singe, "Luther," featuring SZA, are expected to bring the California native back to Crypto.com Arena for the 2026 Grammys. He currently sits in second place in the top three categories, behind Gaga in each. But it's worth noting that both GNX and "Luther" lead Album and Record of the Year, respectively, according to Gold Derby editors.

Song of the Year

The top songwriting category is where Sabrina Carpenter makes her strongest showing with "Manchild," the lead single off of her seventh studio album, Man's Best Friend. The song, which was written by Carpenter, Amy Allen, and Jack Antoff [sic], is currently in third place in the category, behind "Abracadabra" and "Luther."

Best New Artist

Alex Warren's "Ordinary" has been perhaps the most unavoidable pop song of the year, dominating both the Hot 100 and TV ads since it debuted in February of this year. It should come as no surprise then that the influencer-turned-singer is sitting at the top of predicted Best New Artist nominees, just ahead of Lola Young, Sombr, the Marías, and Addison Rae."

[Lextyr97 20,090]

Abracadabra deserves a main category win. And I pray Gaga gets AOTY this year. Ugh I pray

[River 118,186]

34 minutes ago, palma said:

Mayhem currently tops Gold Derby's combined ranking of nomination predictions.

 

35 minutes ago, palma said:

But it's worth noting that both GNX and "Luther" lead Album and Record of the Year, respectively, according to Gold Derby editors.

[Tranquil 92]

Not only do I expect big nominations for Abra and Mayhem but both Harlequin and The Joker soundtrack are also eligible for nominations. It’s likely that Gaga might break her personal nomination record from 2019, with 5 nominations that night. 
 

I can see a Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album nomination for Harlequin and mayyybe a Best Soundtrack for Visual Media for The Joker.  

[GagaGame 3,773]

If Luther wins any category where Mayhem is nominated I’m not listening to any rap music anymore.

[ActualPatient 1,785]

imagine if a dark horse emerges and boom it's ed sheeran with another 'shape of you' situation

[palma 8,304]

18 minutes ago, River said:

 

Editors' ranking and combined ranking is different. Editors are basically industry/adjacent professionals while anyone registered to their website can vote on the combined ranking (which I did to skew results in Gaga's favour hihi ).

It's good that Gaga appears to lead - it will swing some undecided voters into considering Gaga as the most likely to win, and thus vote for her.

[Rahrahbitchson 20,726]

9 minutes ago, ActualPatient said:

imagine if a dark horse emerges and boom

Katy Perry dreaming every night before going to bed 

[AVeryGagaHolyDick 26,243]

22 minutes ago, Tranquil said:

Gaga might break her personal nomination record from 2019, with 5 nominations that night. 

Didn’t she score six in 2022 with Love For Sale?

[datlastfam 5,199]

I want her to break MJ's record for the most grammy wins in one night so bad 

[River 118,186]

9 minutes ago, palma said:

Editors' ranking and combined ranking is different. Editors are basically industry/adjacent professionals while anyone registered to their website can vote on the combined ranking (which I did to skew results in Gaga's favour hihi ).

It's good that Gaga appears to lead - it will swing some undecided voters into considering Gaga as the most likely to win, and thus vote for her.

i hope she will win this time

mayhem deserves it

[StarstruckIllusion 52,940]

Her and her team are so stupid for booking a MAYHEM show so close to the GRAMMYs. We don’t even know if she’ll attend but she’s probably not performing either 💔