Toronto Unemployment Near 10%, Housing Market Paralyzed, Construction Collapses

[Economy 52,837]

https://betterdwelling.com/toronto-real-estates-long-term-prospects-fade-as-unemployment-nears-400k/

 

While Canadas economy Nationally as a whole has chugged along a little better than expected in the face of tarrifs and uncertainty, the same can not be said about Southern Ontario including Toronto and its Suburbs

 

Torontos unemployment is now at almost 10% with some suburbs like Brampton (my city) over 11%. It is unusual for the Countries largest city to have an unemployment rate this far above the National Average.

 

While tarrifs have hurt confidence in manufacturing, the Province of Quebec should have been hit just as hard as Ontario as they are both heavy in manifacturing yet Quebec is doing relatively ok. More is going on than jjst tarrifs

 

Economists believe years of Housing bubbles and high consumer debt which was worst in Toronto and Vancouver is also partially to blame. High interest rates in 2022 and 2023 finally started to put pressure on household finances and an overheated housing market which finally popped

 

Housing prices are down well over 22% from 2022 peaks in Toronto and sales are the lowest since 1990s (the last major housing downturn). Housing starts are down 60% which is now hurting good paying construction jobs further amplifying a downward spiral. The condo market is doing especially bad with the city now having over 1 years inventory in the downtown and a city of millions only having a few hundred condo sales a month

 

Toronto also tool the brunt of the immigration boom of 2021 and 2022 which saw Canada population surge nearly 4% annually (over 1 million per year) and the economy was not able to keep up and create this many jobs for everyone

 

There is also concern that a collapse in housing activity will cause a boom-bust-boom situation. Sales and construction are becoming paralyzed. The falling prices now may be temporary and in 4-5 years we may see spiking prices again

 

Outside Toronto and Vancouver, the rest of the Countries Housing Market has begun a recovery and construction is increasing at healthy levels

[Economy 52,837]

I think for youth level entry jobs its even worse. My boss said normally job postings get a 10 to 20 applications in a week...

 

She said this year when she posts a posting in 2 days she gets nearly 200 and cant go thru them all. She randomly selects a couple dozen to go thru and has to discard the rest cuz she doesnt have time to look thru that many

[Lord Mayhem 3,414]

10 to over 11%????

Gat dayum! 

Yeah the housing market stalling is going to negatively impact the construction industry and its a domino effect...one cant survive without demand and home sales otherwise it too will collapse 

This is where America is headed as our national unemployment rate is already at COVID levels...which is not good at all. Clear signs of a recession are there but Trump wants to pretend this is still somehow Bidens fault...

[Economy 52,837]

1 minute ago, Lord Mayhem said:

10 to over 11%????

Gat dayum! 

Yeah the housing market stalling is going to negatively impact the construction industry and its a domino effect...one cant survive without demand and home sales otherwise it too will collapse 

This is where America is headed as our national unemployment rate is already at COVID levels...which is not good at all. Clear signs of a recession are there but Trump wants to pretend this is still somehow Bidens fault...

Yeah. Its pretty bad. 10% is about 9% by USA measurement methodology fyi

 

Excluding pandemic it hasnt regionally been this high since like 2009/2010

 

Housing is always a vulnerability cuz at its peak, housing investment was directly responsible for 6% of GDP vs about 3% in a typical developed Nation

[Delulu Rogers 7,654]

Are we surprised? Taking in so many people, many who are in fact not skilled workers, but looking for just regular/entry level jobs would obvious spike unemployment. I don't understand how the libs mess ed up this badly. The immigration system was/is so non sensical and it is a disaster. 

Also, every corner I look there are proposed signs to tear down plazas, existing houses etc to build condos. Why are we still building condos if there is no demand for them? It's only making it worse by creating such a surplus. 

People don't want small condos. We want houses at affordable prices. 

[Economy 52,837]

56 minutes ago, Delulu Rogers said:

Are we surprised? Taking in so many people, many who are in fact not skilled workers, but looking for just regular/entry level jobs would obvious spike unemployment. I don't understand how the libs mess ed up this badly. The immigration system was/is so non sensical and it is a disaster. 

Also, every corner I look there are proposed signs to tear down plazas, existing houses etc to build condos. Why are we still building condos if there is no demand for them? It's only making it worse by creating such a surplus. 

People don't want small condos. We want houses at affordable prices. 

Well the permit and application time leads are so painfully long that some of what your seeing could have been started when demand was still there... also because its so long, maybe not all projects are being cancelled in the hope that by the time a building is up demand is back.

 

Lets not forget we still have a long term housing shortage. Even more livable homes are seeing slow sales. But thats due to higher rates than before, prices still too high for incomes, unenployment and uncertainty over tarrifs keeping buyers on side lines. The surplus is temporary and demand will come bac. Were still in a general shortage and I wouldnt be surprised if in a few years even small condos are tight again

 

That said i 100% agree with u about over building this specific class relative to everything else.

 

I dont have an issue with condos and tbf in cities like this out of space homes arent much of an option anyway. But they can definitely build bigger condos not these sub 500sq feet micro units

 

We say ppl arent having kids but imo housing is the #1 biggest impediment. Even more than affordable child care. Starting a family is a big burden when you have to upgrade housing in such an unaffordable market

[Lucas 31,089]

That is absolutely crazy... and with the use of AI this number will only increase in the next years. I wonder what will happen...

[Economy 52,837]

21 minutes ago, Lucas said:

That is absolutely crazy... and with the use of AI this number will only increase in the next years. I wonder what will happen...

Remains to be seen. Thats been a constant feared always brought up for the last 150 years but long term since industrial revolution most increased productivity has consistently not caused the mass unemployment feared because our consumption has always risen to match the increased productivity per worker.

 

As long as supply and demand remain in long term equilibrium, you should not have mass unemployment due to technology, the economy finds new ways to make use of human capital resources to create even more goods and services. The only reason the modern economy can sustain so many ppl working as restaurant servers, working in cubicals taking customer complaints, or services like cutting your hair is because basics from 100 years ago like construction, farming and other building that took up most of the work force can now be done with only like 5% to 10% of the population leaving resources available for other industries

 

My long term concern tho is were reaching a threshold where way too few level entry jobs exist and way too mamy things require specific training or degrees creating a skills mismatch that will hurt peoples job prospects while hurting companies as well and further add to income divide

 

Its not that new jobs cant replace the lost jobs from AI... its that those new jobs may end up being harder to qualify for making job market less fluid. Some offset may even occur in even more services which wouldnt be great as they are lower paying jobs

 

I dont think well ever have a society where demand for workers will evaporate. Our economy and society is hardwired to use up extra productive capacity per person for even more consumption (including forced consumption as more things become necessities such as cell phones and internet for example) rather than our society as a whole working less (an atribute that really irritates me). But neverthless thats what we do with advancement. The problem is many of those jobs wont be easy to get. There will be openings but many ppl simply wont qualify for those oppurtunities