Sabrina Carpenter's "Manchild" to debut at #1 on the Hot 100

[LG2008 5,029]

I think it will disappear in its second week... I haven't seen anyone liking the song 

[lastpopicon 28,942]

31 minutes ago, salty like sodium said:

probably because they did it for past singles and realised it didn't move much of a needle. I'm guessing DWAS was different because it was already #2 so they figured they could nudge it a bit with some physicals, but idk

my personal theory is that they caught off guard by the insane Abra's success, it had a timid debut but it kept growing to 8.5M, if they capitalized on the second week with physicals and discounts a top 5 was very possible at least IMO, people were hungry for her content and she broke personal records with mayhem vinyls sales, i think many monsters would buy an Abra physical. 

And it's all fine, it's still a hit and nearing 20 weeks on the charts but people will always use the #13 peak to drag it 

[salty like sodium 1,662]

5 minutes ago, lastpopicon said:

my personal theory is that they caught off guard by the insane Abra's success, it had a timid debut but it kept growing to 8.5M, if they capitalized on the second week with physicals and discounts a top 5 was very possible at least IMO, people were hungry for her content and she broke personal records with mayhem vinyls sales, i think many monsters would buy an Abra physical. 

And it's all fine, it's still a hit and nearing 20 weeks on the charts but people will always use the #13 peak to drag it 

what i wonder is how involved the artist is in this. Is it Gaga who doesn't care/want Abra physicals? Is it the label? It's so fascinating to think about who ultimately makes those decisions and why.

[andy232000 11,254]

2 hours ago, suchheights8 said:

Can someone explain how she can score a #1 with less streams than Gaga got on Abracadabra? I feel like #1's are truly bought today and hardly organic. 

90% of Gaga’s streams are from countries outside of the US. 90% of Sabrina’s streams are from the US. 
 

Billboard counts only US streams.

[lastpopicon 28,942]

2 minutes ago, andy232000 said:

90% of Gaga’s streams are from countries outside of the US. 90% of Sabrina’s streams are from the US. 
 

Billboard counts only US streams.

Abra also did relatively well on the US on the start, another factor that nobody is bringing up are the points needed to chart.

The top 5 currently starts at 173 points, Abra's debut was 173 points (or something like this), if it released today the peak would be higher. 

Sabrina probably still has better US numbers but the chart competition when Abra released was tougher and that's one of the reasons this debuts 1# and Abra debut was 13.

[Lextyr97 19,755]

She released a new song?

[salty like sodium 1,662]

11 minutes ago, lastpopicon said:

Abra also did relatively well on the US on the start, another factor that nobody is bringing up are the points needed to chart.

The top 5 currently starts at 173 points, Abra's debut was 173 points (or something like this), if it released today the peak would be higher. 

Sabrina probably still has better US numbers but the chart competition when Abra released was tougher and that's one of the reasons this debuts 1# and Abra debut was 13.

the real lesson here: timing is everything. it reminds me of when taylor swift moved her album release by 2 weeks because she didn't want to be competing with Adele.  you're right that the charts right now are particularly in a dire place.

[Teletubby 147,205]

update: