Trump would still hypothetically beat Michelle Obama

[SpadesToStart 3,853]

Actual election results from presidential primaries, as well as from midterm and special elections are telling a different story than these polls. Don’t lose hope, most importantly vote in November!!!

[Morphine Prince 109,983]

16 minutes ago, SpadesToStart said:

Actual election results from presidential primaries, as well as from midterm and special elections are telling a different story than these polls. Don’t lose hope, most importantly vote in November!!!

This. I’m not saying Trump has no chance of winning. But neither candidate is a lost cause at this point. I predict it will be incredibly close and every single vote definitely will count in swing states. 

In 2020 we had Biden winning Georgia by 11K votes. If you care about this election’s results just VOTE. The ONLY results that matter are those on November 5. 

[PunkTheFunk 125,734]

It's not looking good for Biden.

 

 

[Bronco 27,746]

These kinds of polls are always like the lowest form of data science in my view. They're always commissioned by people with a specific agenda to push within a specific party - I'd wager this is a Democrat funded poll given the results and targeting of the question. 

They essentially work on exploiting the fact that these candidates will often have only soft impressions on the average voter due to a lack of current activity and the lack of a policy platform. The results basically rely on name recognition vs reality candidates.

They're only marginally better than the would you vote X or you're unnamed ideal Democratic/Republican candidate. Which aren't worth the paper their written on.

[MOT 3,648]

Great thread.

I don't know who's going to win in November (nobody does), but imo the most likely winner is Biden. I don't think the election will be about policy, or about Biden's performance, I think it will be about Trump, that for too many people (from his point of view) the priority will be to keep him out of the presidency.

By the way, I think we all make our comments as if the context was that this is going to be a 'normal' election where two candidates run their campaigns, then everyone votes, then they count the votes and declare a winner; but I don't think that's going to happen. Trump's rhetoric is already very extreme. He is facing into at least one criminal trial before November. If that goes badly for him, or if the polls are going in the wrong direction he will ramp up the extreme rhetoric even more. In the swing states I would expect intimidation, violence and attempts at cheating. If, after all that, Biden is declared the winner, Trump will not accept it. There will be more plots and more fake electors, and I believe that he would go as far as attempting to provoke a civil war before he would accept another electoral defeat (or a jail sentence).

Incidentally, it is a fact that I could today bet on both Biden and Trump and guarantee myself a profit regardless of which of them won. That's another way of saying that a third outcome is a live possibility. It's by no means a likely outcome, but it is in play.