Russia might prepare a false-flag operation in Moldova (ISW)

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For the second time this week, the ISW analysis warns of the risks of Russia trying to destabilize the Republic of Moldova.

The Russians are coming up with more and more false information regarding the so-called "provocations" set up by Chisinau. The goal is to create pretexts for Moscow to intervene in the Republic of Moldova, the ISW analysis shows.

Such a gesture that prepares the destabilization of Moldova is the press release issued on January 12 by the Ministry of State Security of Transnistria.

Transnistrian separatists claim that the Moldovan special forces are preparing "special combat groups" of more than 60 people (most of them experienced in the war in Ukraine) who are trained by foreign specialists to destroy critical objects, sabotage military installations and capture or anihilate high ranking government officials from Transnistria.

ISW predicted, in an analysis a few days ago, that entities from Transnistria are preparing the conditions for a possible false flag operation in Transnistria.

According to military analysts, this is probably part of the Kremlin's efforts to create informational conditions aimed at destabilizing the Republic of Moldova and justifying any future Russian campaigns in the region.

Source: https://www.defenseromania.ro/scenariul-destabilizarii-r-moldova_626416.html, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/separatists-say-moldova-wants-use-ukrainian-soldiers-plan-attacks-2024-01-12/ 

[Ayesha Erotica 1,963]

I think RU is kinda overloaded and has not the means to do it right now. It possibly wants to divide TRA & MOL as it always does

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33 minutes ago, Okinawa said:

I think RU is kinda overloaded and has not the means to do it right now. It possibly wants to divide TRA & MOL as it always does

It's always the 2 of us but here we go: 

I agree there is no way there is going to be a convential war between the government Republic of Moldova and Transnistria with backing from the Russian Federation, because Russia has no way to enforce the enclave (at least for now). But something that is in the realms of possibilities is civil unrest in the Republic of Moldova following news that the Republic of Moldova supposedly moved in Ukrainian troops to displace the separatist regime in Tiraspol. There are 4-7k soldiers in Transnistria which could be prove useful for Russia in case they start a squirmish with the Republic of Moldova (and inevitably Moldova's main partner Romania), because it would divert attention from the war and bring instability close to NATO doorsteps - maybe even start a conflict that would remove Maia Sandu and the pro-Western regime. 

I think rn Moldova is paradoxically both protected (because UA cuts off Russia's access to Transnistria by land or sea) and unprotected (because of potential instability and the fact that Russia has ambitions on it).

[Ronk 14,930]

Putin will take country after country until the world has the guts to stop him.

[27monster27 16,083]

Gosh Putin is so awful. Although this would be a very dumb decision considering how the war in Ukraine has gone for them. Adding another enemy (even if small) would be a mistake. Putin is most likely trying to bank on the fact that most of the world is distracted by the issues in and around the Israel-Hamas conflict.

[Dennis 8,391]

11 minutes ago, 27monster27 said:

Gosh Putin is so awful. Although this would be a very dumb decision considering how the war in Ukraine has gone for them. Adding another enemy (even if small) would be a mistake. Putin is most likely trying to bank on the fact that most of the world is distracted by the issues in and around the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Putin's aim is to reach Odessa, and if he does (assuming U.S continues to be unable to provide support for Ukraine), then seizing Moldova can become much easier for him.

The world is busy with many conflicts, and he'll easily get away with it.

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Just now, Dennis said:

Putin's aim is to reach Odessa, and if he does (assuming U.S continues to be unable to provide support for Ukraine), then seizing Moldova can become much easier for him.

The world is busy with many conflicts, and he'll easily get away with it.

Rather than have 2 hostile sides that want either all or nothing, the US should come together and accept a middle way that can be acceptable to both sides, so when/ if the Republican president comes, US may not be tempted to straight up leave NATO.  But you want either ALL or NOTHING, and what happens if it will be nothing? Third parties will be the one who suffer.

[Dennis 8,391]

12 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Rather than have 2 hostile sides that want either all or nothing, the US should come together and accept a middle way that can be acceptable to both sides, so when/ if the Republican president comes, US may not be tempted to straight up leave NATO.  But you want either ALL or NOTHING, and what happens if it will be nothing? Third parties will be the one who suffer.

I don't think both sides disagree on Ukraine, the disagreement is on the border. And it's not just Ukraine's aid that's held up. Israel and Taiwan too.

I think both sides are to blame. And this represents the dysfunction in this country. U.S. allies should read the signs and start relying on themselves because this government is not very reliable anymore.