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Russia might consider an attack on Romania (George Friedman article)


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Russia could attack another US ally to change the dynamics of the war, and Romania and the Republic of Moldova could become possible targets, according to American analyst George Friedman, who spoke to Geopolitical Futures about the strategic options he has at the moment Vladimir Putin, after the defeats suffered in Kharkiv.

In short, George Friedman argues Romania is the most likely candidate for a Russian attack because Russians can land on the Black Sea instead of invading huge swaths of territory.

He says Russia is in a bad situation with no good options to take, among which he mentions the nuclear option and the possibility of indaving a NATO member to divert West's attention from Ukraine. But ultimately he says an operation like this would fail because the Bosphorus will immediately shut down. He also says an attack on Romania will happen in junction with an attack on the Republic of Moldova because of the historical ties between the two countries.

Spoiler

 

"Obviously, the Russians must change the dynamics of the war if they are not going to be forced into a political settlement. The key is to pose threats to the Ukrainians from multiple directions, both tactically and strategically. Indeed, their primary need is to spread US logistics by creating a serious military threat to another US ally or directly attacking one. It is not clear that the US would be unable to secure two fronts, but it could unbalance them and force them to reduce support for Ukraine, opening possible opportunities for Russia. 

Geography provides few options for this, but the most likely ones are Moldova and Romania, two countries connected to one another. It could not be an overland offensive but would have to take advantage of the Black Sea, landing significant forces in Romania, a NATO member and host to an American naval force. To achieve this, the Russians would have to first use missiles to eliminate Ukrainian anti-ship missiles like those that sank the Moskva. Having done this, they would have to achieve and maintain air or missile superiority over the Black Sea and then land and lodge sufficient force to compel Romanian forces into combat with substantial American forces. Given that there are American naval forces outside the Bosporus, and given that NATO’s mandate or sheer necessity would force the Bosporus shut, this would pose a serious threat to the Russians. Add to this an air attack on Russian forces, and this operation would likely fail.

There are perhaps other viable diversionary actions of sufficient significance to compel the United States to divert its forces, but all of them would be built on land movements at a time when Russia is hard-pressed. An attack on the Baltics would bring a significant Polish attack on Russia’s flank, and mounting an attack on Finland, for example, would be detected and anticipated. The same is true with Romania, but with somewhat lower opportunity.

Of course, the Romanian gambit itself is highly dubious, but here we are assuming that Russia has been forced to the defense and that it is unwilling to abandon the war. Few options are attractive at this point, but the political cost of abandoning the war is enormous. If they must continue and the Russians can’t regain the initiative, then a Hail Mary is the only option."

 

Source: https://infoprut.ro/95501-analist-american-despre-optiunile-rusiei-romania-si-r-moldova-ar-putea-deveni-posibile-tinte.html

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catsounds

I feel bad for the innocent citizens of Russia that most likely just want peace like everyone else does but their leaders are egotistical maniacs :saladga:

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21 minutes ago, Chromatislaps said:

This is kinda the start of WWIII ain't it? :saladga:

I would say this would turn into WW3 if Russia announces a full mobilization or something dramatical happens (like Turkey shutting off Russia's acces to the Bosphorus). The announcement of the partial mobilization was pretty escalatory, this is a conflict that doesn't seem to be dyeing out... :bear:

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Chromatislaps
16 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

I would say this would turn into WW3 if Russia announces a full mobilization or something dramatical happens (like Turkey shutting off Russia's acces to the Bosphorus). The announcement of the partial mobilization was pretty escalatory, this is a conflict that doesn't seem to be dyeing out... :bear:

jesus, its not that far of tho :sweat: these all seem like realistic scenarios

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1 minute ago, Chromatislaps said:

jesus, its not that far of tho :sweat: these all seem like realistic scenarios

If we want to be pesimistic, it does feel like there is a build up.. Like.. if WW3 ever comes it will not start with the nuking of London and New York, it will more or less be gradual and expected. The war started in 2014, became major in 2022. If it continues to escalate we are heading into dangerous territory.

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MACATL
9 hours ago, catsounds said:

I feel bad for the innocent citizens of Russia that most likely just want peace like everyone else does but their leaders are egotistical maniacs :saladga:

I’m not sure they have enough accurate info to feel such a way as a whole? 

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this is horrific yall....Russia really wants to drag the world into WW3. I usually HATE when ppl bring up WW3 type of comments but ever since Russia ACTUALLY invaded Ukraine past just Donestk and Luhansk I've been super anxious about it possibly happening and if more countries are involved it will for sure escalate to massive proportions. Especially if Russia attacks an EU and NATO nation...

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