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War's effect on the Global breadbasket measured by NASA


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ukraine_plnt_2022_lrg.jpg

When farmers in Ukraine planted wheat, canola, barley, and rye in autumn 2021, their concerns were relatively routine: would dry weather or rising fertilizer prices cut into their yields and profits? By the time those winter crops emerged from dormancy in spring 2022, life in Ukraine had turned completely upside down.

Russia had invaded. The war sent tanks rolling through fields, covered farmland with mines, and rained artillery shells on crops. Fuel and fertilizer prices soared. Labor became scarce. Some farmers left to join the fighting; others died or fled as their villages were bombarded. Even farmers far from the front lines watched tens of millions of tons of grain and other agricultural goods sit idle in silos and ports due to a naval blockade.

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“The world’s breadbasket is at war,” said Inbal Becker-Reshef, director of NASA’s Harvest program. Before the war, Ukraine provided 46 percent of global sunflower oil exports, 9 percent of the wheat exports, 17 percent of the barley, and 12 percent of the maize on global markets. (Ukraine and Russia together accounted for 73 percent of sunflower oil exports, 33 percent of wheat, and 27 percent of barley.) The past few months have disrupted that flow of food.

“We’re in the beginning stages of a rolling food crisis that will likely affect every country and person on Earth in some way,” said Becker-Reshef. For some populations, this could mean higher prices or missing items at the grocery store. For others, history suggests it could mean more acute food shortages.

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The map at the top of the page—based on data from Planet Labs satellites and the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 mission that was processed and analyzed by NASA Harvest—shows the distribution of summer and winter crops in Ukraine as of June 13, 2022

“Taking all of that into account, the data indicate that Ukraine is on track for a winter wheat yield of about 4.1 metric tons per hectare.” said Becker-Reshef. A healthy crop in the ground, however, does not guarantee the crop will be harvested and sent to market. A naval blockade has stopped Ukraine from exporting goods by ship, halting much of the country’s ability to sell grain, explained Sergii Skakun, a NASA and University of Maryland researcher who grew up in Ukraine and spent multiple years with Ukraine’s Space Research Institute. 

Source - https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150025/measuring-wars-effect-on-a-global-breadbasket

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Posted (edited)

Video on the same topic. Before the war war, Ukraine was the fifth bigest exporter of wheat, third biggest exporter of barley & corn and biggest exporter of sunflower oil. Russia and Ukraine account for 79% and 81% of Turkey's and Lebanon wheat imports and significant amonts of Yemen and Egypt's food imports. They also account for 1/8 of the total colories traded globally.

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The blockade of the Black Sea will disrupt the flow of all these products and this will affect the arid areas nearby: the Middle East & North and East Africa, potentially leading to civil unrest at the same or even bigger scale that the Arab Spring (which will start to take effect starting 9 months from now).

Ultimately the war in Ukraine proves once again the Black Sea is one of the most strategically important bodies of water in the world and the largest, most significant and unstable ''convergence of competing global powers'': US, NATO, EU, Turkey, Russia and China. 

 

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  • FfFfFfFF changed the title to War's effect on the Global breadbasket measured by NASA
AnnaNicoleSmith

Mustard is missing already in France. Plus, a pack of gum is now 5/6 euros :poot:. Fruits are to expensive price per kilo. We are ****ed unless the government rises our salaries

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1 hour ago, AnnaNicoleSmith said:

Mustard is missing already in France. Plus, a pack of gum is now 5/6 euros :poot:. Fruits are to expensive price per kilo. We are ****ed unless the government rises our salaries

What is important to note is that the effects of the food crisis will happen over time (also most likely won't affect Western Europe directly). Someone said the disruptions of exports caused by the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 played a role in the Arab Spring of the 2010s (if this is true, imagine how much worse consequences the much bigger Russo-Ukrainian one will have, when like half of the Black Sea is unoperable :bear:) We are just seeing a piece of domino falling, and we have no way of predicting to what it will lead into over time. 

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Economy
7 hours ago, AnnaNicoleSmith said:

Mustard is missing already in France. Plus, a pack of gum is now 5/6 euros :poot:. Fruits are to expensive price per kilo. We are ****ed unless the government rises our salaries

When the issue is a shortage general higher salaries don't really help much. It just means they can charge higher cuz in a shortage it still goes to higher bidders... 🙄

 

I suppose in a specific country in can help but globally as it whole it can't. In fact if a countries income rises and they can import more of whatever is in shortage it will be even more out of reach for others

 

The way the market works it ensures that anything in tight supply that is sought after, no matter where incomes go, prices go up along with it

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Gaby15

In addition, the harvest in some European countries will be worse than usual due to the drought. This does not mean that there will not be enough for the domestic population, but they can import less.

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2 hours ago, Gaby15 said:

In addition, the harvest in some European countries will be worse than usual due to the drought. This does not mean that there will not be enough for the domestic population, but they can import less.

I left out this though I am sadly very much aware of it (I read about the drought in Po Valley, moreover I can barely leave the house myself because of the heat, I don't remember experiencing a June like this when the grass almost dried up :air:). Now just like the summer is extra hot I believe the winter will be extra cold too.

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