Could Lady Gaga win the Academy Award? (A Best Actress race analysis)

[Cssomeone 1,576]

To be honest, I can see Gaga winning:

● She had a good enough performance

● Her nomination won't probably be the only one for House of Gucci, (Costume and Hair & Make Up are pretty locks) which might raise her chances

● She has been willing to campaign 

● This award season has been quite confusing, with no real front runner

● Neither Kristen Stewart nor Alana Haim (two of her major opponents) were nominated at the SAG Awards

[DoremonLove 8,144]

Ill be happy if she gets nominated. Lets keep our fingers crossed and light our candles for winning chances bcoz its a tight race

[StressedOut 617]

Honestly, after finally being able to watch all of the performances, I can't say one person had a better performance than the others. 

In my eyes it's still very much a toss up, not to promote kindness or anything, but they all did really well 

[MOT 2,733]

I've just had a small bet at 14/1. I think her chances are better than that.

[Anderson123 36,061]

I think it's pretty random at this point, there's no way to predict this anymore. Just looking at last year's winners. Andra Day won the Golden Globe, Viola Davis the SAG Award, Carey Mulligan the Critics Choice Award and Frances McDormand the BAFTA who ended up winning the Oscar too and everyone had no idea who'd win it.

[Just A Holy Fool 2,443]

I still don't think Gaga will win the Oscar... but the race definitely is still very wide open.... 

This SAG snub of Kristen is quite shocking TBH...

[RichAssPiss 4,725]

The internet trolls might have just handed Kidman her second Oscar. I think the actors are rallying behind her as she really did a great job in spite of her detractors. I have always been skeptical of Stewart winning because for some reason I'll never understand people just seem not to like her. And it's a popularity contest in the end.  But also keep in mind that Regina King was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA but still won the Oscar. So, it's not impossible.

[Lovelife 456]

at this point it's pretty clear that KStew is only favorable among critic circles. Therefore she won so many awards there. But again, she didn't win any trifectas for her performance in Spencer. So yeah, it's true that it's film twitter who has been overhyping her this whole time and that translated to her winning almost every critics circles whose member only ranges from 5-40 members. It's important to note that any trifectas >>> twitter critics circle. and yes Gaga won a NYFCC (one of the trifecta awards). Even though I really like KStew's performance in Spencer, the film interpretation of Princess Di is so wrong and that exactly is the factor of why general public reception about this movie seems so off and it's not a box office hit either.

 

p.s critics circle (Trifectas, any other twitter awards, GG, ≠ industry (SAG, BAFTA, OSCAR) 

[Spartacus 4,485]

I just want a nom for her. 

[Massive Monster 4,808]

I don't think the film or performance is Oscar worthy.

With the amount of nominations it looks like I've been proved wrong in a way 

She's an amazing actress but I think she will shine with a better script.

 

[Sunny21 608]

Honestly, I'd be happy as long as she's nominated. 

SAG is a labor union. The Academy is more like an exclusive club. Oscar voters are famously snobbish... I doubt House of Gucci is their movie of choice. 

CHER won with her second nomination, but her movie, Moonstruck, was nominated for 6 Oscars, including Best Picture. It's her 7th movie (not including cameos). Her first nomination was for Best Supporting Actress.  

The GP likes Gaga. She's a box office draw. She's probably getting lots of offers. Slow and steady wins the race. 

It's not all about awards. Do a rom-com, a superhero movie, a mystery thriller... Have some fun! 🙂

[Jack3257 683]

Honestly the Globes were completely canceled this year, and I think they made some extremely out of the box picks (possibly to get some publicity.  Someone is more likely to acknowledge their win if the Globe is one of a few awards they get).  Belfast is the best picture front runner but MPD went to Power of the Dog.  Licorice Pizza was considered a lock for Screenplay and it lost to Belfast.  I don’t think we can lean into the Globes too much. 

[SevenWonder 3,915]

It would be a shock if Gaga does NOT get nominated at this point. That's first. And super important. A nomination for a film like Gucci is reward enough. A big BO success AND a nom? Just huge for Gaga the Movie Star. Catapults her to A list acting status.  Her Fame era all over again, but for the big screen.

 

Sadly, it would be an even bigger shock if she wins the Oscar. I'm here for it, of course. But it ain't happening, I fear.

 

[Arloway 147]

Yes. At this point anything could happen. This is how this year's race is like. 

5 Days ago, Nicole Kidman was missing 7-8 critics circles and on verge of a nomination. She went from there to the frontrunner overnight, after her globe win. 

After losing the Globe, it seems like Gaga was not favored by the industry and reflects how the big media are not predicting her anymore (Clayton Davis, Scott Fienberg). Then she went from 6th/7th to top 2 under two hours. 

SAG and Bafta are the two awards that have the most overlap voters as the academy. HoG leading SAG with 3 nominations, and making shortlists of 13 catogories just screams INDUSTRY SUPPORT to me. 

[Arloway 147]

As for now, I think Kristen is done. Without a SAG nom, the furthest she can reach is an Oscar nom, which is still very possible. Jessica gets more solid as she secures a SAG nom, placing her ahead of Zegler, Haim, and Cruz comfortably. But her film made like $2M and was mixed reviewed. She will suffer from it because no one watch that film, especially not the public. 

So I think it really comes down to Gaga, Nicole, and Olivia. Nicole with her Globe win is surely the frontrunner now. Critics Choice and SAG could very much just follow the trend and award her. Then we have Olivia, we don't know how well she will perform at Bafta this time but her films did pretty well with the shortlist. She's win competitive at the Bafta and if she does win, she's a strong contender. 

Gaga on the other hand, is win competitive at both SAG and Bafta. HoG is the only lead actress film that got an ensemble nomination, which is equivalent to the Best Picture for SAG. This will be a huge boost for her chance. So I think it's Nicole vs Gaga at the SAG. For Bafta though, I'm not sure if she'll get the nomination (due to their weird new system). But if she does get in, she'll also be win competitive considered her film overperformed at the shortlist and that really indicates industry support.