Could Lady Gaga win the Academy Award? (A Best Actress race analysis)

[Bradley 57,641]

Here are my thoughts on the Best Actress race so far:

As we know, Kristen has been leading the race for a very long time, her chances at winning would've been almost completely secured if she won the GG and got nominated at the SAG, but she did not, and people are saying the BAFTA won't show Spencer that much love. This reminds me of how Gaga led the race in 2018 before the Golden Globes (she was #1 in many experts' predictions) with A Star Is Born but quickly loss her momentum when Glenn Close won the GG and CC and SAG, but Olivia ended up winning, showing how the BAFTA is pretty crucial in predicting who takes the gold.

Nicole Kidman is leading the race now, considering she won Golden Globe Drama. If she goes on to win the CC, SAG and BAFTA, then we can safely say that the Oscar will be hers. If she wins the CC and SAG, but someone else wins the BAFTA, then whoever that wins the BAFTA may actually upset Nicole's win. Does Nicole have a weakness? Yes, her movie is not exactly liked by the public, and isn't exactly a blockbuster (neither of them are except for Gaga's). Most of the actresses' movies are at 60%+ RT score, but Gaga's film has the advantage of doing incredibly well at the box office worldwide. Today has been a tremendously good sign for House of Gucci and Gaga. House of Gucci getting 13 longlist mentions and 3 awards at the SAG, including ensemble, suggesting that it's more popular (voters actually saw it) than other contenders. This came from a temporary dip in Gaga's chances (some experts removed Gucci and Gaga from their predictions) after she missed out in some critics' circle's picks.

This also means that Gaga is the only Actress in a movie which might get some Best Picture recognition (either at the BAFTAs or Oscars). Of course Nicole still leads at the moment. Other strong contenders who may upset Nicole would be Jessica Chastain and Olivia Colman. Could Olivia Colman take the gold again after just winning for The Favourite in 2018? Possibly, Frances McDormand has shown us anything can happen. I haven't seen Olivia's movie so I can't tell you if it looks like a "winning" performance, but what's noteworthy is that Olivia is the only actress in a non-biopic movie. Biopics usually have an advantage at the Oscars.

As for Chastain, she is in a similar position with Gaga and Colman in that they depend on the CC, SAG and BAFTA to upset Nicole. I can actually see Gaga taking either the CC or SAG, Nicole's narrative has never been "indisputable winning performance" (it was previously Kristen's narrative), so it's not a Renee Zellweger's Judy situation for Nicole here. There is a slight chance that some other actresses like Rachel Zegler and Alana Haim and Jennifer Hudson who might take the fifth spot at the Oscars, but Gaga is unlikely to be affected since she is at the #2/#3 position now.

Gaga is slated to make an appearance at the NYFCC to receive her Best Actress award. Other than that, I hope she makes some additional appearances to campaign a little further.

[Akiki 3,900]

Unlikely. Let’s see what comes. Kirsten not being nominated for SAG its a game changer.

At this point I would say she is a solid contender but not the winner. The nomination is locked. I can see Gaga being nominated affecting the winner but she is unlikely to win. Just like Watch the Throne gave Adele the chance to win AOTY cause the votes split for Kanye. If Kirsten gets nominated it will be her or Nicole. 

[bionic 43,732]

Stranger things have happened

[Oyster 2,458]

Unlikely but never impossible 

I wouldn’t bet any money on it though 

[Dennis 8,391]

Yes she's top 2.

Best Ensemble Nod in SAG? Something none of her competitors managed to get.

[elijahfan 25,017]

I mean, at this point it’s virtually impossible to say…. It’s literally anyone’s game. Gaga is adored by the Academy so I definitely wouldn’t rule her out yet. We’ll see 

[Bradley 57,641]

Gaga taking the CC isn't enough imo. The CC is probably the weaker Oscar precursor. The SAG/BAFTA however could significantly boost her chances. House of Gucci being viewed so favourably at both award circles definitely help.

[elijahfan 25,017]

1 minute ago, Dennis said:

Yes she's top 2.

Best Ensemble Nod in SAG? Something none of her competitors managed to get.

The cast was truly spectacular. I’m surprised Al Pacino didn’t get any supporting role nod anywhere so far.

[Dennis 8,391]

1 minute ago, Bradley said:

Gaga taking the CC isn't enough imo. The CC is probably the weaker Oscar precursor. The SAG/BAFTA however could significantly boost her chances. House of Gucci being viewed so favourably at both award circles definitely help.

Gaga is winning the SAG. And it's more important than CC.

 

[azul 2,088]

I think you should keep your eyes on Rachel Zegler. Yes, Gleen Close won every award before Oscar's night in 2019. However, it was the Golden Globe Comedy winner the one who took the Oscar home that night - Olivia Colman. I think Rachel is still in the race.

[Bradley 57,641]

4 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Gaga is winning the SAG. And it's more important than CC.

 

I agree that the Gaga seems to be viewed quite favourably at the SAG this year.

I'm not sure about the BAFTA's sentiments, but I think they like Gaga enough. Whether or not that translates to giving her Best Actress is another question, but it's not out of the question. Do u think Colman will win the BAFTA?

[Inferno 2,880]

Not saying its impossible but I don't personally think she should? I think all of the honor and gratefulness should come in being nominated at all. If she will be...is she? Have they announced that? Idk anything about that anymore.

[Bradley 57,641]

2 minutes ago, DanielM said:

I think you should keep your eyes on Rachel Zegler. Yes, Gleen Close won every award before Oscar's night in 2019. However, it was the Golden Globe Comedy winner the one who took the Oscar home that night - Olivia Colman. I think Rachel is still in the race.

I can see Zegler getting the fifth spot, but I believe it is Jennifer Hudson and Alana Haim who would be affected rather than Gaga.

Edit: Zegler didn't get nominated at the SAG or CC.

[Rahrahbitchson 17,588]

TBH i dont see Nicole getting the Oscar, i think they gave her that GG because she is GG darling and they didnt wanna give it to Kristen

[pachinko 10,034]

Everyone light your Alejandro candles.