Oscars Debate: is Gaga going to get in?

[mamo 19,091]

FYI: this thread wasn't made with any negativity before anyone starts to attack me or think I'm under-estimiating Gaga. It's just a curious, light-hearted debate/conversation i'm interested in having. 

Calling all my fellow film and awards season lovers:

So today we've found out that Gaga is nominated for both a golden globe and critics choice award which leads me to asking, do you actually think she'll get nominated at the Oscars? 

As a Gaga fan myself, of course I hope she at least gets a nomination (I'm not expecting a win) but in a year SO highly competitive, is it possible?

The main competitors vying for best actress at the oscars are: 

Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)

Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)

Nicole Kidman (Being The Ricardos)

Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)

Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) 

other possibilities: Tessa Thompson, Emilia Jones, Jennifer Hudson etc

As we know there are only 5 slots in the Best Actress category meaning 2 of these actresses above will be snubbed. I'd say out of all these nominees Stewart and Colman are a lock which leaves 3 other spaces left.

Also we need to take in to consideration that Haim's and Zegler's film are highly favoured and are most likely to be nominated in best picture which could give them a huge advantage in being nominated in actress which could possibly leave only one slot left if they both get in. If Gaga gets nominated at SAG + BAFTA then she should get in at the Oscars. 

Basically this year's race is SO competitive in ways that I've never really seen before and in all honesty I could see Gaga getting snubbed (although I hope she doesn't). 

what are your thoughts? I'd like to hear! 

[Brainiac 10,934]

I don’t really see how she’s not nominated tbh after all the nominations she’s already received. 

[FameMonster01 7,071]

I'm sorry but Gaga is definitely in top 2, eventually top 3

She's 100% getting the nomination

Chances for an oscar would be somewhat of 50/50 as I see her going up against Kristen

Olivia already won the year before, so it's unlikely they'll be giving it to her again

[Mister Gaga 22,913]

Zegler is not getting in. WSS, sadly, flopped tremendously. I'd say that Tessa Thompson (passing) is a bigger threat. She's been getting lots of praise too.

But in all honesty, i think she will. She brings ratings and buzz, and oscars need that now, more than ever before. Kristen and her are the only performances that the GP is talking about.

[pedrohemg 7,802]

Why would the Academy not nominate Gaga after their floppest ceremony last year?

[LunaUniverse 3,855]

I definitely have a strong feeling she’ll be nominated. She’s a big presence in award shows and it’s be pretty insane not to bring her in after how horrible the views were this year. 
 

A lot can change from now to February. Would it be a big shock if she doesn’t win? Not really. When acting categories get really hectic, it’s hard to turn it into a real guessing game. Which doesn’t mean she doesn’t have a percent shot at winning either, it’s just a matter of time will tell.

[Franch Toast 26,869]

I think the has an extremely strong chance. As you speculate, I believe Stewart and Colman are shoo-ins, but among the others, I think Gaga's chances are the likeliest because she gave a stellar performance in a meaty role. 

Gaga aside, I think Rachel Zegler has a good chance because critics have lauded her for surpassing Natalie Wood in her performance of María, plus she is the only non-white contender you mention, though on the flip side, the shining stars of Spielberg's West Side Story are Ariana deBose and Rita Moreno, plus the role of Maria isn't that meaty. (Don't listen to people who call the film a flop based on 2 days of box office returns; it just won 11 Critics Choice Awards nominations, tying Belfast for the most this year.)  I've also seen a lot of acclaim for Alana Haim, so she's a strong possibility. 

Kidman and Being the Ricardos and Chastain and The Eyes of Tammy Faye appear to have mixed reviews, and I'd say they're the weakest links. 

 

[RichAssPiss 4,924]

Honestly, almost every year is this competitive.

She's a strong possibility, but not a lock. She is vulnerable to upset. The Academy upsets tend to be solo performances that are likely the only, or one of only a few nominees from their film. In short, I theorize that this is because the Academy doesn't actually watch all that many of the eligible movies. So, someone like Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy (a movie not likely to get many nominations) will get snubbed for someone like Sam Rockwell in Vice (an unexpected performer from a film we know they are actually watching because it is a likely nominee in many categories). Gucci is a toss-up in this regard. It will get mostly below the line nominations in costume, hair and makeup, etc. So, some of the acting branch may pass on watching it based on bad reviews and instead vote for Alana or Rachel whose films are more widely in contention for Best Picture, Best Director, etc (and therefore ones they prioritize watching). I think Gaga and Chastain are both very vulnerable for this reason. Also, Gucci being a critically mixed film doesn't help her whereas universal acclaim bolsters both Zegler and Haim.

Kidman, Coleman, Stewart seem like solid locks to me. Honestly, Chastain and Gaga feel more like Globe and SAG nominees with Zegler and Haim more likely Oscar nominees but I won't be surprised to see any of those four get it in. 

I can also see Frances McDormand being a surprise nominee because they just love her. Or Penelope Cruz, as often there's an underestimated international performance to sneak in, like Cotillard in Two Days, One Night. The Academy tends to skew more international than SAG or (ironically) Globes. 

[Rahrahbitchson 19,907]

Ofc she is going to be nominated, the real question here is she going to win? 

[pedrohemg 7,802]

It's time for us to stop thinking Gaga is always the last option. Except for Olivia, Nicole, and Chastain, all the others have no Oscar history.

[Cameltoe Chariot 15,213]

There is absolutely no doubt that Gaga will be nominated. The Oscar race is between her and Kristen Stewart.

[azul 2,099]

At this point, the question is not if she will be nominated but if she is in a position to win, in my opinion. She did a great job really, you guys should believe in her. Her performance was like an old Hollywood-style performance. People will need years to realize that, but Gaga presented herself here as a big movie star. I have yet to see Spencer, but Gaga really did amazing. 

[mamo 19,091]

28 minutes ago, Mister Gaga said:

Zegler is not getting in. WSS, sadly, flopped tremendously. I'd say that Tessa Thompson (passing) is a bigger threat. She's been getting lots of praise too.

But in all honesty, i think she will. She brings ratings and buzz, and oscars need that now, more than ever before. Kristen and her are the only performances that the GP is talking about.

I wouldn't say WSS has flopped just yet. Yes, it had a poor opening box office this weekend but it seems like a slow-burner. It's probably going to be one of the most nominated films this year so I'm sure it'll have an extra-boost. Also I don't think the Academy cares about box-office as much as they do quality. 

28 minutes ago, FameMonster01 said:

Olivia already won the year before, so it's unlikely they'll be giving it to her again

They said that about Frances McDormand so I don't think it matters as much. 

24 minutes ago, Franch Toast said:

I think the has an extremely strong chance. As you speculate, I believe Stewart and Colman are shoo-ins, but among the others, I think Gaga's chances are the likeliest because she gave a stellar performance in a meaty role. 

Gaga aside, I think Rachel Zegler has a good chance because critics have lauded her for surpassing Natalie Wood in her performance of María, plus she is the only non-white contender you mention, though on the flip side, the shining stars of Spielberg's West Side Story are Ariana deBose and Rita Moreno, plus the role of Maria isn't that meaty. (Don't listen to people who call the film a flop based on 2 days of box office returns; it just won 11 Critics Choice Awards nominations, tying Belfast for the most this year.)  I've also seen a lot of acclaim for Alana Haim, so she's a strong possibility. 

Kidman and Being the Ricardos and Chastain and The Eyes of Tammy Faye appear to have mixed reviews, and I'd say they're the weakest links. 

 

SIS!!!! i agree with everything you just said. However I'd place Kidman probably 3rd on my list after Stewart and Colman because it seems like a film that the Academy would eat up. The HFPA (Golden Globes) loved it. I think the potential last two slots is between Gaga, Chastain and Haim. 

21 minutes ago, pedrohemg said:

It's time for us to stop thinking Gaga is always the last option. Except for Olivia, Nicole, and Chastain, all the others have no Oscar history.

I'm not saying Gaga is the last option or under-estimating her...I'm just looking at the statistics. Yes, she's great in Gucci but the film itself has mixed reactions putting her at risk of being snubbed for another actress who also gives a good performance but in a more well-received film for example Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) or Rachel Zegler (West Side Story). This isn't an attack on Gaga, I love her just as much anyone else on here but I'm just stating the obvious. 

[mamo 19,091]

18 minutes ago, DanielM said:

At this point, the question is not if she will be nominated but if she is in a position to win, in my opinion. She did a great job really, you guys should believe in her. Her performance was like an old Hollywood-style performance. People will need years to realize that, but Gaga presented herself here as a big movie star. I have yet to see Spencer, but Gaga really did amazing. 

This thread isn't about whether I believe in Gaga or not. It's about predicting the odds on whether the Academy will nominate her again for her role in Gucci. Oh and just to clarify, I do 110% believe in Gaga as an all-round artist/performer however I'm not psychic in knowing what the academy will vote for. Snubs/upsets happen all the time hence why I wanted to hear other people's thoughts/opinions on this exact topic. 

[Jnick8 530]

My money’s on yes - she’ll be nominated. 
Talent, ratings and a growing support from her peers. It’s also a classic hollywood story of overcoming odds and achieving your dreams. The industry needs this ❤️