Variety: Best Picture and Best Director Oscar predictions

[Bleachella 2,932]

No yeah this is not happening…. Gucci definitely has great oscar prospects in a lot of categories (Actress, Makeup, Costumes, etc.), but director and picture are not one of them. It’ll probably get nominated for picture but i doubt it’ll even get a director nomination. this list is trash all around. being the ricardos??? nightmare alley at #5??? jane campion not even top 5 for director??? get rid of this whole list 

[judaspriest 934]

It's a little too soon to talk about the Oscars, but Titane ought to win Best Foreign Language Film IMO

[Shav33l 1,241]

This is creating great buzz and all but is anyone else kinda worried about the critical reception of this movie and the performances? I'll enjoy watching it for sure but if it gets bad reviews from the critics, it might hinder its award chances. Also, it can end up being a stain on Gaga's acting career. These predictions are just jinxing it and are setting expectations way too high. Hopefully everything goes well. 

[LilyLark 9,935]

1 hour ago, GucciGa said:

Exactly. Oscar winners are usually (kinda boring) super worthy movies about social issues. HOG does not fit at all. The only reason it's in the conversation is because the calibre of talent behind it. It might get some nominations if it's well reviewed and popular but people have to get real. But there's no point in even saying it bc this fandom thinks everything is a flop if it doesn't win tons if awards and sell 678567 copies 

Yup, agree. I feel like HOG will get noms for costume design, Gaga, and Jared (awards committees love Jared for some reason, and his role is "showier" than Adam Driver's part) and will do fairly well at the box office. Granted, the theater industry has been half way destroyed due to COVID so by fairly well I mean a 12-15+ mil opening...when a few years ago I would say this type of film needs a 25+ mil opening to be successful.

If it doesn't pop up at TIFF, NYFF, or Telluride (the first two often announce movies after the official selection) I'll start to downplay the Oscar potential more...the fact that they've kept the Nov. date though is a good sign that it has some awards potential.

As far as best actress, I feel like Frances McDormand, Kirsten Dunst (for the Jane Campion film) and Jennifer Hudson (even though the Aretha Franklin biopic is getting meh buzz) are most likely to get noms based off the projects/press/speculation so far. KStew is probably in the mix, too, as the buzz from some screenings is apparently really positive and Spencer is going to be at Venice (although the Awards committees don't tend to be super into Larrain even if the critics love him). She's going to benefit though from being in a "transformation" type role and the fact that the film comes after several years of very well received indie performances.

So there's one slot that is wide open and Gaga "may" be the best contender for it since Being the Ricardos and Blonde were pushed back....but if she doesn't get nominated I wouldn't be shocked as it is a campy film. Fans will freak, though.

[RichAssPiss 4,752]

Literally none of this matters when they're talking about movies no one has seen yet.

[LilyLark 9,935]

1 minute ago, RichAssPiss said:

Literally none of this matters when they're talking about movies no one has seen yet.

I mean some of the films have had screenings (Spence, the Aretha Franklin biopic, etc.) but you are right that it's way too early.

[Galagala 4,572]

Don't post these early predictions to boost up little monsters' confidence on this film. 

Lol overhyping took away Gaga's Golden Globes Best Actress for ASIB, remember?

[GucciGa 3,729]

8 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

Yup, agree. I feel like HOG will get noms for costume design, Gaga, and Jared (awards committees love Jared for some reason, and his role is "showier" than Adam Driver's part) and will do fairly well at the box office. Granted, the theater industry has been half way destroyed due to COVID so by fairly well I mean a 12-15+ mil opening...when a few years ago I would say this type of film needs a 25+ mil opening to be successful.

If it doesn't pop up at TIFF, NYFF, or Telluride (the first two often announce movies after the official selection) I'll start to downplay the Oscar potential more...the fact that they've kept the Nov. date though is a good sign that it has some awards potential.

As far as best actress, I feel like Frances McDormand, Kirsten Dunst (for the Jane Campion film) and Jennifer Hudson (even though the Aretha Franklin biopic is getting meh buzz) are most likely to get noms based off the projects/press/speculation so far. KStew is probably in the mix, too, as the buzz from some screenings is apparently really positive and Spencer is going to be at Venice (although the Awards committees don't tend to be super into Larrain even if the critics love him). She's going to benefit though from being in a "transformation" type role and the fact that the film comes after several years of very well received indie performances.

So there's one slot that is wide open and Gaga "may" be the best contender for it since Being the Ricardos and Blonde were pushed back....but if she doesn't get nominated I wouldn't be shocked as it is a campy film. Fans will freak, though.

Yup, agree on everything. I feel like the academy is just waiting for a chance to nominate Kristen. As you say she tends to do tiny indie movies that just cannot afford Oscar campaigns but she consistently gets great reviews. 

I haven't heard much about kirsten dunst. I think Halle Berry is in the mix too. Who knows. It all deoends on how their movies are received and that's before we even get into the politics and campaigning of it all. 

[Shav33l 1,241]

6 minutes ago, GucciGa said:

Yup, agree on everything. I feel like the academy is just waiting for a chance to nominate Kristen. As you say she tends to do tiny indie movies that just cannot afford Oscar campaigns but she consistently gets great reviews. 

I haven't heard much about kirsten dunst. I think Halle Berry is in the mix too. Who knows. It all deoends on how their movies are received and that's before we even get into the politics and campaigning of it all. 

I've seen a lot of people say that Kirsten might be going for supporting. I think Jodi Comer has a chance of being nominated too. That role is juicy.

[LilyLark 9,935]

2 minutes ago, Shav33l said:

I've seen a lot of people say that Kirsten might be going for supporting. I think Jodi Comer has a chance if being nominated too. That role is juicy.

That's interesting about Kirsten!

I feel like the Last Duel is going to have a few things against it. Firstly, some critics were snarking about it before it was even in production due to it being a film about rape that's partially about how it impacts the men. Secondly, Matt Damon & Ben Affleck are fantastic screenwriters but again, the press/media/critics aren't going to look very kindly at the fact that they partially revised a script that was at first solely written by a woman. Lastly, it's premiering out of competition and not in competition at Venice. I love Jodie, though, so I would be happy for her to get a nom... but I feel like the Josephine Bonaparte film she's filming now is more likely to be a major Oscar player.

[GucciGa 3,729]

10 minutes ago, Shav33l said:

I've seen a lot of people say that Kirsten might be going for supporting. I think Jodi Comer has a chance of being nominated too. That role is juicy.

I heard Matt Damon talking about that movie on Marc Maron's podcast. Tbh It doesnt appeal to me at all. I am just not interested in movies where women are raped. Enough! . But I really like Jodie in Killing Eve so would be happy for her. 

[Bradley 57,844]

48 minutes ago, Bleachella said:

No yeah this is not happening…. Gucci definitely has great oscar prospects in a lot of categories (Actress, Makeup, Costumes, etc.), but director and picture are not one of them. It’ll probably get nominated for picture but i doubt it’ll even get a director nomination. this list is trash all around. being the ricardos??? nightmare alley at #5??? jane campion not even top 5 for director??? get rid of this whole list 

You don't know if it won't get Best Director and Picture nominations unless you have seen the movie.

And please don't go into that whole "because crime is not an Oscar genre!" discussion... it's way more complex than that.

[Bradley 57,844]

37 minutes ago, Shav33l said:

This is creating great buzz and all but is anyone else kinda worried about the critical reception of this movie and the performances? I'll enjoy watching it for sure but if it gets bad reviews from the critics, it might hinder its award chances. Also, it can end up being a stain on Gaga's acting career. These predictions are just jinxing it and are setting expectations way too high. Hopefully everything goes well. 

I agree that predictions that are way too optimistic can be bad if they don't live up to expectations but at least it secures the nominations tho.

Many performances and movies are not even considered for nominations and these early buzz actually help keep Gucci in the conversation for longer.

[Bleachella 2,932]

35 minutes ago, Bradley said:

You don't know if it won't get Best Director and Picture nominations unless you have seen the movie.

And please don't go into that whole "because crime is not an Oscar genre!" discussion... it's way more complex than that.

I don’t really need to see the movie to know it’s not going to get a director nomination. Like, I don’t have to see Respect to know it won’t be anywhere near the conversation of Director or Picture. The Directors branch tends to be really snobby, especially in the last few years, often snubbing more commercial films for more arthouse and risk taking directorial projects. Just look at last year, The Trial Of The Chicago 7 was snubbed for Director in favor of Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, a foreign, more “serious” and auteur film. The directors branch eat that up. You can make educated guesses and predictions without having seen a movie, really just based off what the trailer is showing us. 

You’re right it’s way more complex than that - and crime actually is a pretty decent oscar genre? Quite a few best picture winners in the last two decades have been crime films or crime-adjacent thrillers. Not sure why you thought I was going to bring that up? 

[Bradley 57,844]

16 minutes ago, Bleachella said:

I don’t really need to see the movie to know it’s not going to get a director nomination. Like, I don’t have to see Respect to know it won’t be anywhere near the conversation of Director or Picture. The Directors branch tends to be really snobby, especially in the last few years, often snubbing more commercial films for more arthouse and risk taking directorial projects. Just look at last year, The Trial Of The Chicago 7 was snubbed for Director in favor of Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round, a foreign, more “serious” and auteur film. The directors branch eat that up. You can make educated guesses and predictions without having seen a movie, really just based off what the trailer is showing us. 

You’re right it’s way more complex than that - and crime actually is a pretty decent oscar genre? Quite a few best picture winners in the last two decades have been crime films or crime-adjacent thrillers. Not sure why you thought I was going to bring that up? 

But how do we know if Gucci won't straddle between the commercial and the arthouse? People have said that it employs narration a la The Wolf of Wall Street and movies like this, like Vice, The Big Short which break the fourth wall have been acknowledged beyond their acting performances before.

How do we know if Ridley won't innovate his directing style this time round? Maybe he didn't experiment with new techniques but this time he just hits a chord and the film, though commercial in one way, turns out to be so effective everyone enjoys it? Why is this not likely at all for Ridley to get a Directing recognition?

If I may consider Joker as commercial, Todd Phillips did get a directing nom. Emerald Fennell's Promising Young Woman isn't exactly arthouse either, it's pretty straightforward and easy to enjoy for mainstream audiences, but she got a nom nonetheless.