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OH Primaries Thread


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JRCF29

Tonight is the night! A pair of special elections to the U.S. House kicks off in the Buckeye state, with major implications for the future of both the Democratic and Republican parties (or, maybe not, if 538 is to be believed). 

 

In Ohio's 11th Congressional District, previously represented by HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge (D), roughly a dozen candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination. The district went for the party by a 4-to-1 margin in the 2020 cycle, and is considered to be among the safest blue seats in the country. Both Shontel Brown, a Cuyahoga County Councilor, and Nina Turner, a former State Senator and Sanders 2020 organizer, have a shot at winning the nomination and by extension the seat, but its been anything but a friendly matchup.  

 

Brown is being supported by pro-Israel groups, such as the Democratic Majority For Israel, and also boasts endorsements from Hillary Clinton, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and a total of 18 Ohio mayors. She started off well behind in the polls, but has since gained ground and is expected to at least give early front-runner Turner a fright tonight. 

Turner, for her part, is getting support from Sanders, the Squad, and a slew of other progressive boosters—including Justice Democrats, the PAC that engineered former Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.)'s demise in what is now Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's district. 

 

On the Republican side, local conservative activist and 2020 nominee for the seat Laverne Gore is hoping to move beyond Felicia Ross Washington. If any of the four women mentioned win the general election, it would mark the third time in a row that the seat has been represented by an African-American woman. 

Predictions

Democrats:                       Republicans:

Brown- 41.7% (W)              Gore- 75% (W)

Turner- 38.8%                   Washington- 25%

 

Elsewhere in the state, Republicans are facing a crowded primary field of their own in a reliably red district. Outgoing Rep. Steve Stivers (R) has thrown his support behind immigration hardliner State Rep. Jeff LaRe, but the endorsement has put him at odds with former President Trump's political operation; the former president is backing Mike Carey, a businessman and political newcomer who has raised over $460,000 so far, about double LaRe's haul. Also in the mix are Ruth Edmonds, a conservative faith activist with financial backing from Debbie Meadows, the wife of Trump CoS Mark Meadows; State Sen. Stephanie Kunze, whose fundraising has been anemic (to put it mildly); and State Sen. Bob Peterson, an eight-generation farmer who led the field in cash on hand as of the latest, July reporting deadline. (Fundraising Reports courtesy of Ballotpedia). 

While President Trump's endorsement record is pretty spotless, a glaring exception is fresh in the minds of just about everyone in D.C.: Just last month, a Texas special election resulted in Jake Ellzey, a little-known military veteran and state legislator knocking off Trump-endorsed Susan Wright, the widow of Rep. Ron Wright, whose death from COVID-19 triggered the election in the first place. It's difficult to tell which way this election will go, with several viable candidates in the race and split endorsements from GOP leaders and activists. 

 

On the Democratic side, an uninteresting race is unfolding between Greg Betts and Allison Russo, a decorated military veteran and a two-term State Representative, respectively. A quick peek at the campaign websites reveals that Russo appears to be running a much more sophisticated operation, and has raised over $250,000 to Betts' $8,000. Either one would be the underdog in the general. 

 

Predictions

Democrats: 

Russo- 82.4% (W)           LaRe- 24.1% (W)

Betts- 17.6%                    Carey- 21.8%

                                        Peterson- 13.9%

                                        Kunze- 10.1%

                                        Edmonds- 5%

 

Don't Call Me Gaga
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FudgeyBear

I live in OH and it’s so apparently clear that I know nothing of OH politics. :toofunny:

 

don’t worry, I vote during every presidential election. This one got away from me though.

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JRCF29
1 minute ago, FudgeyBear said:

I live in OH and it’s so apparently clear that I know nothing of OH politics. :toofunny:

 

don’t worry, I vote during every presidential election. This one got away from me though.

These aren't statewide races, so if you don't live in the Cincinnati area or in/around Cleveland...

Don't Call Me Gaga
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FudgeyBear
Just now, JRCF29 said:

These aren't statewide races, so if you don't live in the Cincinnati area or in/around Cleveland...

….I live in Cincinnati!….oof. Wow, I’ve gargantually effed up. This is why OH remains a red state, folks… 

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Lion Heart

GOODBYE SOMEBODY 

I had a strong feeling she was gonna lose. From the high profile endorsements that Brown received, to Turner's own pasts (Jill Stein involvement, did not vote for HRC in 2016 which upset the base, the "voting for Biden is like eating ****" comments).. all of that finally came back to haunt her.

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