Brainiac 11,171 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 1 hour ago, ShtoopidLahv said: Trump has such a tough fight to reelection. Biden *only* needs Wisconsin, Michigan, (both def going for him) and Pennsylvania (who knows) and he’s good to go. Obviously that includes all the states HRC won in 2016, of which the only barely iffy ones are Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. I think he’s fine. Problem is how will Trump delegitimize these results. I live in Virginia and I can tell you for a fact that it's NOT iffy here lol. Biden's gonna win the state by at least 10 points. Virginia is no longer the swing state it once was. It's pretty solidly blue at this point and it's not going back. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lemonky 671 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 1 hour ago, bionic said: Why does he need a landslide? Why is it that Republicans are allowed to win by the slimmest of margins and Democratics say "OK", but Democrats say they themselves need a landslide? Because I don't know how can someone vote for a dictator. If you're left you have Biden, if you're right you have Jorgensen. I absolutely fear society that sees Trump as the best candidate. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtoopidLahv 710 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, Brainiac said: I live in Virginia and I can tell you for a fact that it's NOT iffy here lol. Biden's gonna win the state by at least 10 points. Virginia is no longer the swing state it once was. It's pretty solidly blue at this point and it's not going back. We love to see it. Nevada, New Hampshire, and eventually Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Minnesota to join y’all in the next four years We need these state legislatures to go blue to ratify the voting rights act which then increases turnout solidifying the blue state Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtoopidLahv 710 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 59 minutes ago, LateToCult said: I can see Trump winning Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Texas, and North Carolina and Biden winning Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Nevada and both splitting Maine. A situation like that would make Pennsylvania the deciding factor. I think it’s gonna be a lot closer than in 2016 but we’re still at a disadvantage. Trump is behind in Iowa, Arizona, Ohio, and North Carolina. Not to mention the fact that AZ, NC, and IA are the three of the most likely Senate races to flip to D which further solidifies Biden’s advantage in these states Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LateToCult 42,178 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, ShtoopidLahv said: Trump is behind in Iowa, Arizona, Ohio, and North Carolina. Not to mention the fact that AZ, NC, and IA are the three of the most likely Senate races to flip to D which further solidifies Biden’s advantage in these states Iowa is a very tight race with recent polls flip flopping on who’s ahead so I gave it to Trump, Biden’s lead is small in Ohio so I’m just giving it to Trump as well. As for Arizona, I don’t think it will flip this election but it could. I gave it to Trump anyway because we’ve seen talk about a red state flipping blue before (Hillary with Texas) and it didn’t pan out. Best not to get our hopes up. Biden’s lead in North Carolina is also tiny and well within the margin of error so I’m not getting my hopes up for it either. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShtoopidLahv 710 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, LateToCult said: Iowa is a very tight race with recent polls flip flopping on who’s ahead so I gave it to Trump, Biden’s lead is small in Ohio so I’m just giving it to Trump as well. As for Arizona, I don’t think it will flip this election but it could. I gave it to Trump anyway because we’ve seen talk about a red state flipping blue before (Hillary with Texas) and it didn’t pan out. Best not to get our hopes up. Biden’s lead in North Carolina is also tiny and well within the margin of error so I’m not getting my hopes up for it either. I suppose but I think everyone here is really overestimating Trump’s chances a lot tbh. If scientists’ forecasts hold true, covid cases and hospitalizations are expected to spike in the next month (California will see an 85% forecasted increase in hospitalizations) because of the second wave. Basically a rolling campaign ad for Biden. But you also gotta be consistent with who’s likely to receive the win in each state. If Biden is ahead in ohio, Arizona, and NC (states he doesn’t *need* to win), even within the MOE, they are more likely to go to him. The same way that Trump is up within the MOE in Texas, Florida, Iowa (in only some polls), and Georgia and those are more likely to go to him. Doesn’t make sense for Trump to suddenly have the advantage in states that he is marginally losing. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spyro 8,438 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 I've always said Michigan was the most likely of the three blue wall states to flip back Spyro the Dragon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
vitoburrrito 653 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 5 hours ago, Bottom said: The debates don't change anything , especially this time round. Everyone has already made their mind up about who they are voting for. Think about 2016 and how Hillary won the debates everytime yet it made no difference, people have their minds made up long before Very much this. I will not be watching the debates and frankly, I wish Biden wouldn’t participate. For starters, you can’t debate someone like Trump, who just makes untrue/exaggerated claims that are simply impossible to argue against. Furthermore, the candidates almost never answer the questions in honest or detailed ways, they just provide simple answers and trash talk the other candidate. It’s been this way for years, not just recently. Presidential debates have essentially been superficial campaign marketing events for decades now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LateToCult 42,178 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, ShtoopidLahv said: But you also gotta be consistent with who’s likely to receive the win in each state. If Biden is ahead in ohio, Arizona, and NC (states he doesn’t *need* to win), even within the MOE, they are more likely to go to him. The same way that Trump is up within the MOE in Texas, Florida, Iowa (in only some polls), and Georgia and those are more likely to go to him. Doesn’t make sense for Trump to suddenly have the advantage in states that he is marginally losing. Trump has won these states once already. Him polling relatively close to Biden makes me think he’s still got an impressive base. Polls were horrible at capturing his support 4 years ago in these states and there’s no concrete evidence that this time is any better so if it’s a small lead for Biden I’m giving it to Trump. The only reason I’m not giving Pennsylvania to Trump is because Biden is from there and (in my opinion) the state was the biggest fluke of 2016. I really think Biden has a good shot at winning it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SevenWonder 4,784 Posted September 27, 2020 Share Posted September 27, 2020 To those who don't trust polls. I totally get it. 2016 was a freak show. But remember, the national aggregate polls were actually correct: Hillary DID win by 3 percent! And the swing states she lost (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) were also polled correctly. Those loses were so slim, so within the margin of error, that the polls weren't to blame. What was? People thinking she had it in the bag and not voting!! VOTE BLUE for all the American Monsters. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whispering 18,865 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 12 hours ago, StarstruckIllusion said: I’ve heard that undecideds are at record lows this election. Everyone has their minds made up. Unless either candidate essentially melts down on stage, the polls are gonna be like: nothing new, nothing changed, same old ****. Its okay to admit that these debates are just reality drama shows at this point lol. Let’s just hope Biden stuffs a decent amount of whatever he took in that last primary debate, and actually serves lucidity Biden went toe to toe with Bernie because he does better when he is doing a town hall or debating one person. (or a few) The accusations that he is “on something” are silly. You sound like Trump. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whispering 18,865 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 12 hours ago, HorusRa2 said: Bookmarked. Just saying this is the same arrogance that led to HRC losing in 2016. Bookmarked, just so I can find it later. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiskoBaby 1,929 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 None of these polls mean anything until November Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarstruckIllusion 53,727 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Whispering said: Biden went toe to toe with Bernie because he does better when he is doing a town hall or debating one person. (or a few) The accusations that he is “on something” are silly. You sound like Trump. So? Him doing bad in group debates is not a “presidential quality” to be promoting rn, so maybe let’s not bring up anything that could spell potentially disastrous G7 or UN adjacent meetings. Plus, people to the left of Biden and who are moderate say the same thing too... so basically anyone who’s not a Biden stan. I’m a straight edge extremist, I just literally cant decide what other explanation is there to save a mentally floundering man who’s too scared to take a cognitive test? (literally so dumb, just do it) This is clearly beyond just... what, social anxiety? Aderall seems like the most simple explanation. Others bring it up to trash him, but I literally said it in the context so he can win. He can take whatever he needs to take in order to properly cancel Republican influence under a Biden admin. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
StarstruckIllusion 53,727 Posted September 28, 2020 Share Posted September 28, 2020 13 hours ago, KanyeWest said: I say this because Biden has said very weird things, of course Trump is insane but some think he's great obv he's president right now. But if Biden has a slurred speech, or a stroke, or stutters, can't find his words, or says illogical things like when he said "Only I can beat Joe Biden" Im pretty sure it would be a disaster Sssiiiiggggghhhh If Biden has a slip up like that which sends America into another war or something equivalent... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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