Top 10 Most Competitive House Districts 2020 (My Take)

[JRCF29 8,230]

Hello all, and welcome to what will probably end up being a bi-weekly ranking of the most competitive house races in the country as we march towards Nov. 3. The metrics for inclusion are holistic nature, and I will be taking into account fundraising, polling, demographics, incumbency, handicaps, the candidates themselves, and a dose of gut instinct (which one should never underestimate)! 

 

 

 

10. ME-02 (Rep. Jared Golden (D) vs. Dale Crafts (R))

Most Recent Poll: Golden (53%)/Crafts (40%)

Fundraising: Golden ($2.7M)/Crafts ($337K)

In 2016, Donald Trump made a successful play for this district's electoral vote (Maine and Nebraska both allocate one vote to the winner of each congressional district, and two votes to the winner of the state), planning to use the rural voter base as a tiebreaker if the race came to it. It was a somewhat surprising result given that Obama easily carried northern Maine in both 2008 and 2012. Last year, the blue wave seeped into the Pine Stree State and moderate Jared Golden, an ex-Marine, ousted Rep. Bruce Poloquin in a tight contest. With the President at the top of the ticket again, this district seems poised to be decided by under 5 points yet again- though a recent non-endorsement by the Sportsman's Alliance of Maine did little to boost Dale Crafts' momentum. Expect fundraising to surge on both sides in the next month or so.

 

9. UT-04 (Rep. Ben McAdams (D) vs. Burgess Owens (R))

Most Recent Poll: McAdams (35%)/Owens (35%)

Fundraising: McAdams ($3.4M)/Owens ($768K)

This is Mia Love's old seat, but intra-party squabbles won't be a factor this time around: ex-NFL player and GOP nominee Burgess Owens is a Trump ally through-and-through. This has traditionally been a safe Republican district nationally, with wins for McCain, Romney, and Trump in the last three cycles so McAdams' vote to impeach the President is likely to put him in a bind. He has managed, however, to find distance from Speaker Pelosi on one key issue: spending. Joining with other Democratic moderates, McAdams sponsored a bill in 2019 to add a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution, which should boost his bipartisan image in a red-hued state. The race is going to be close and will likely move up this list in the coming weeks. 

 

8. AZ-06 (Rep. David Schweikert (R) vs. Hiral Tipirneni (D))

Most Recent Poll: Schweikert (45%)/Tipernini (48%)

Fundraising: Schweikert ($1.3M)/Tipernini ($2.4M)

Arizona is a swing state this year, as an increasingly diverse and secular group of voters bleeds blue into a traditionally solid red state. Republicans definitely still have a long-term chance here, but for the immediate future it's tilting left. Hiral Tipirneni, a doctor and the Democratic nominee for this seat, has proven herself a prolific fundraiser and an adept campaigner; she has amassed a respectable social media following and has been running ads highlighting her support for Obamacare from the perspective of a physician. The incumbent, Schweikert, is behind badly in fundraising and is facing ethics questions following a House probe that ended in a reprimanding; additionally, his Name ID is not especially high according to available polling. This is a bit of a sleeper race, but keep your eye on it. 

 

7. NH-01 (Rep. Chris Pappas (D) vs. Matt Mowers (R))

Most Recent Poll: Pappas (52%)/Mowers (34%)

Fundraising: Pappas ($2.1M)/Mowers ($692K)

With ME-02, this is the only New England district that the GOP has any realistic shot of contesting. The polling here doesn't accurately reflect where this race is at, as far as I'm concerned, given how closely this district voted in 2016 at both the congressional and presidential levels. Pro-Trump PACs can also be expected to spend big in this race for one of Trump's ex-State Department employees and the recipient of his Twitter endorsement. The district includes progressive bastions such as Dover as well as more right-leaning cities like Rochester and this is going to be an expensive and hard-fought contest. Expect Mowers' out-of-state residencies to come up just as frequently as Pappas' 99%- the proportion of votes he's followed Speaker Pelosi on. 

 

6. TX-21 (Rep. Chip Roy (R) vs. Wendy Davis (D))

Most Recent Poll: Roy (47%)/Davis (48%)

Fundraising: Roy ($2.5M)/Davis ($4.4M)

This race is essentially a dead heat for the moment, with incumbent Chip Roy facing a truly stiff challenge from former State Senator and gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis. Roy is being painted as a swamp stooge by the DCCC who have sent out press blasts hitting over his lack of address in the district, votes to advance the lawsuit brought by Texas against provisions of Obamacare, and opposition to an amendment to the 2017 tax bill that would cancel a tax hike on military survivor's benefits. Davis is best known for her filibuster in support of abortion rights several years ago, which might prove to be a cumbersome piece of baggage in a district that hasn't voted for a single pro-choice candidate for this office since at least the 1970s. The President carried the district with 52% of the vote in 2016 and his presence at the top of the ticket should help the conservative Roy into office for a second term- a development contingent on limited ticket-splitting or partial ballot completion. 

 

5. NY-11 (Rep. Max Rose (D) vs. Nicole Malliotakis (R))

Most Recent Poll: N/A

Fundraising: Rose ($5.7M)/Malliotakis ($1.7M)

The fundraising totals in this race should easily exceed $10M when all is said and done, which would make it way more expensive than the 2018 cycle. Republican primary voters chose well, I believe, in nominating Nicole Malliotakis, given her high profile and comfort in the spotlight (she was the party's mayoral nominee in 2017, getting crushed by DeBlasio citywide- though not in this part of town.) Both candidates are established on the airwaves, and this is going to be a street fight with plenty of smears and shots; Trump won this district in 2016, before a rough year for Republicans nationally installed ex-military man Max Rose to the seat. It's never a bad thing to have a military background, and in fact close to 1 in 5 congresspeople are veterans, but it also might not be a bad thing to have the backing of President Trump and the status of DeBlasio enemy in a district the former one and the latter is reviled in, especially these days. It's really a battle of center-left vs right and could go either way at this point. 

 

4. CA-39 (Rep. Gil Cisneros (D) vs. Young Kim (R))

Most Recent Poll: Cisneros (47%)/Kim (45%))

Fundraising: Cisneros ($2.6M)/Kim ($3.1M)

The candidate so nice they recruited her twice, Young Kim is a stellar candidate for the GOP. A legal immigrant who started her own business, and served in Sacramento from 2014-2016, Kim is outraising her opponent by about half-a-million in this race. That opponent, Gil Cisneros, has a fun-fact filled story of his own as a lottery winner-turned-philanthropist, and his brand of political moderation helped him secure this seat against Kim last cycle. With the two candidates trading the lead in polls and sniping at each other on the airwaves, this is turning into a compelling battle of ideas- and characters- in the final stretch.

 

3. TX-07 (Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) vs. Wesley Hunt (R))

Most Recent Poll: Fletcher (45%)/Hunt (45%)

Fundraising: Fletcher ($4.2M)/Hunt ($3.1M)

Texas is showing up again on this list, though the dynamics are reflected across the axis on this one. Wesley Hunt is an Army Veteran with the endorsement of the NFIB and who has stood firmly against efforts to defund the police forces of Texas. Lizzie Fletcher is the incumbent in the race, a freshman who is an award-winning lawyer and has criticized the Trump Administration for pursuing reckless foreign policy objectives and creating a "vacuum" in the arena for Congress to fill. Both tout their families on their campaign websites, both have ties to Houston, and both have identified flood prevention as an issue of import- while diverging in a polarized manner on issues including abortion and healthcare coverage. I don't believe Texas is a swing state, but this district sure is. 

 

2. OK-05 (Rep. Kendra Horn (D) vs. Stephanie Bice (R))

Most Recent Poll: Horn (44%)/Bice (45%)

Fundraising: Horn ($3.6M)/Bice ($1.4M)

Rep. Kendra Horn, a freshman Democrat representing a tiny district in central Oklahoma where Trump easily dispatched with Clinton four years ago, and where Republicans dominate at the state level (with the exception of Oklahoma County, which is more evenly split.) Stephanie Bice is one of those Republican state legislators, representing the 22nd district in the State Senate. Bice has run close to the President and has promised to have Trump's back on the border wall; Horn's vote to impeach Trump, combined with the headaches being caused for every single vulnerable freshman Democrat by Coronavirus relief delay, threatens to show her the door in November, even as her split with Pelosi on minimum wage legislation provides a proof positive of her insistence she can rise above partisan gridlock to represent her district. 

 

1. CA-25 (Rep. Mike Garcia (R) vs. Christy Smith (D))

Most Recent Poll: Garcia (46%)/Smith (45%)

Fundraising: Garcia ($4.3M)/Smith ($3.4M)

As things stand, I believe this race to be the most competitive in the country. Following a scandal involving explicit photographs, allegations of throupling, and potential abuse of power, Rep. Katie Hill stepped down from her seat last year. Mike Garcia, an ex-Air Force pilot, carried the GOP banner into the special election against Democratic establishment pick Christy Smith (who blocked far-left commentator and activist Cenk Uygur from advancing), ultimately winning the seat. Now, Smith is back with a vengeance and Garcia is raising money like it's going out of style (as far as I can tell, it's not) to protect his seat and his pro-life, pro-growth agenda. Smith wants the suburbs to revolt against Trump and is actively courting the pro-USPS vote, which according to one poll I've seen goes hand in hand with the suburbs (along with urban and rural voters, I might add.) If the most recent USPS episode breaks the suburban dam, then Smith's chances improve. There's also about 500 other factors, big and small, that could tip this race one way or the other. Politicos, take notice!

 

 

[bionic 50,111]

I thought Conor Lamb v Sean Parnell would be more competitive seeing as how Lamb's victory was seen as a defeat to the Republicans

[Spyro 8,438]

Honestly, the house is not on my radar (not to take aware your thread).  But the senate is pissing me in my pants rn

On topic: I really wish CO-3 was competitive... boebert doesn't deserve to go in the halls of congress...

[NathanC 938]

1 minute ago, Spyro said:

Honestly, the house is not on my radar (not to take aware your thread).  But the senate is pissing me in my pants rn

On topic: I really wish CO-3 was competitive... boebert doesn't deserve to go in the halls of congress...

That’s how the republicans win. We get complacent, Democrats have only been caring about major elections while republicans are winning at local levels and then national. We need blue in EVERY aspect of government. If you have the money to spare, donate to every city and county seat.

[JRCF29 8,230]

20 minutes ago, bionic said:

I thought Conor Lamb v Sean Parnell would be more competitive seeing as how Lamb's victory was seen as a defeat to the Republicans

A race's omission from this list does not mean it is not competitive; it means it's not as competitive as other races in the country

[Spyro 8,438]

3 hours ago, NathanC said:

That’s how the republicans win. We get complacent, Democrats have only been caring about major elections while republicans are winning at local levels and then national. We need blue in EVERY aspect of government. If you have the money to spare, donate to every city and county seat.

I'm more concerned with scotus appointments.  I would take a republican house & democratic senate over the reverse.  The house currently is not in any danger with our current efforts, but the senate is still a pure 50/50 toss-up.