JRCF29 8,230 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 It's time for our semi-weekly tradition of picking and analyzing a few high-profile primary races across the country, and honing our political science skills by making some predictions. Let's jump in! Maine Democratic Senate Primary Sara Gideon vs. Betsy Sweet vs. Bre Kidman State House Speaker Sara Gideon has long been the presumptive nominee in the race to take on Republican Senator Susan Collins, but Sweet is still intent on mounting a challenge. The funding game is no contest, with Gideon pulling in heaps of cash to the tune of $22M and Sweet boasting (?) a measly haul of around $650,000. Organizationally, the state party is fully behind Gideon, as are leading national liberal groups such as Planned Parenthood Action Fund, pro-Israel lobby J Street, and ecology/environment advocates the League of Conservation Voters. Gideon is a Biden Democrat more than a Bernie Democrat, and socialist candidates have recently been rejected by Republicans and Democrats alike (Sweet ran for governor in 2018 and came nowhere close to winning the nomination, and Democrat Zak Ringlestein barely got 10% of the vote against Sen. Angus King (I) and GOP candidate Eric Brakey the same cycle.) All this is to say that Gideon is well-positioned to steamroll her way to victory, by a sizable margin. Gideon is on track to get about 65% of the vote to Sweet's 30%, I think. District 2 Republican Primary Adrienne Bennett vs. Eric Brakey vs. Dale Crafts ME-02 is a key battleground in 2020, with veteran and self-styled moderate Democrat Rep. Jared Golden needing to outrun Trump in a district he easily carried last time around. He made good on a campaign pledge not to vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker (he instead backed Rep. Cheri Bustos), and broke with his party most recently to declare Article II of the impeachment paperwork against Trump as insufficient grounds for removal (he supported Article I.) Running to replace him are Adrienne Bennett, a former spokesperson for the administration of ex-Governor Paul LePage; Eric Brakey, a libertarian-minded former state legislator who unsuccessfully challenged sitting Senator Angus King (I) in 2018; and Dale Crafts, another former state legislator and lifelong Maine citizen. Coveted in the race was the official endorsement of LePage who remains well-liked in northern Maine and is widely considered to be one of if not the most conservative governors in the state's history; Bennett seemed like the natural choice for an endorsement as a former employee, but he had also given a press conference in support of Brakey's Senate candidacy two years ago, and in the end it was Crafts who got a TV spot featuring a LePage endorsement. The only poll of the race that is publicly available shows Bennet leading but a sizable chunk of voters still undecided. Brakey has raised a lot more money than his two challengers but was recently involved in a negative headline related to his refusal to attend a virtual debate- it's worth noting that Bennett has also been active in protesting COVID-19 restrictions- though I'm not sure that will hurt his standing among a small-government minded, largely rural electorate. Based on the sheer volume of supporters that Crafts enjoys, his good-not-great funding, a bit of intuition, and his extremely compelling story- he survived a motorcycle crash that left him paralyzed and wheelchair-bound- I'll bet on him. Crafts- 37% Brakey- 33% Bennett- 30% Alabama GOP Senate Primary (Runoff) Tommy Tuberville vs. Jeff Sessions A crowded field of conservatives seeking to unseat sitting duck Democratic Sen. Doug Jones produced a run-off between former college football coach Tommy Tuberville, and the former occupant of the seat Jeff Sessions, which will be resolved on Tuesday. Every poll since May has had Tuberville up by anywhere from 6 to 23 points, and that includes polls from both candidates' campaigns. Social media presence is a split decision, with Jeff Sessions' campaign boasting 60k more Twitter followers but less than a third of Tuberville's Facebook "likes". Both candidates have had reasonably sizable campaign hauls, but the biggest factor is President Trump. Alabama Republicans love Trump, and Trump hates Jeff Sessions: Advantage Tuberville. I think Tuberville should win easily here, 54%-46%. Texas Democratic Senate Primary (Runoff) MJ Hegar vs. Royce West MJ Hegar won the first round and is backed by an extensive network of Democratic leaders and groups, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Everytown for Gun Safety. Her background as an Air Force pilot, Purple Heart recipient, published author, and the face of a lawsuit challenging the Combat Exclusion Policy make her a dream candidate for state and national Democrats. She's a mainstream candidate, running on left-wing calling cards such as banning assault weapons and expanding clean energy. Royce West has the backing of the Congressional Black Caucus, and newspapers including the major-level outlet the Houston Chronicle. He's running in a similarly mainstream lane to Hegar. He's a lawyer and a full-throated Anti-Trump candidate- he alleges the President is using immigration "to play to racism and bigotry" and recently released a digital ad directly addressing him- with a storied history in Texas politics owing to his presence in the State Senate since 1993. He supports expanding the ACA to anyone who wants it, ending private prisons, and restoring a transgender individual's right to serve in the military. Neither candidate strikes me as particularly progressive, which is probably for the best in Texas, but apart from that means that Hegar's lead in the first round should carry over as some progressives stay home. I think MJ Hegar has the edge, given her story and the high-profile supporters of her candidacy and the fact that she's leading West in polls (not always a reliable metric, to be sure), but also her fundraising prowess, which leaves her well-positioned to make a last-minute push over the next 4 days. 53.5%-46.5% I think. Spoiler @NathanC @Franch Toast @POP2 @frederiickx @StarstruckIllusion @Buddy @FudgeyBear @Lion Heart @MISTER GEEMATICA Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nathantj594 902 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I love Sen. Dougie Jones so much! His son is hot af and gay and when he won in 2017 they played Teach Me How to Dougie. It was beautiful. I have no hope for him in November but I’ll always love him. His son is @thedapperzookeeper btw And Paula Abdul ain’t got [BLEEP] on me! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NathanC 938 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Tuberville is trump backed? Also any predictions for those senate seats? Texas has becoming increasingly purple. Alabama is still deep red I think. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRCF29 8,230 Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, NathanC said: Tuberville is trump backed? Also any predictions for those senate seats? Texas has becoming increasingly purple. Alabama is still deep red I think. Yes Maine: Toss-Up Alabama: Likely R Texas: Likely R Don't Call Me Gaga Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NathanC 938 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, JRCF29 said: Yes Maine: Toss-Up Alabama: Likely R Texas: Likely R Stop giving me bad news. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lion Heart 15,041 Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 I hope Sessions loses and then runs as an Independent to split the R vote. One can dream... ▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀▄▀ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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