The transmission dynamics of corona through the postpandemic period

[Brie Candy 18,650]

Science Magazine - Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

SARS-CoV-2 can proliferate at any time of year

In all modeled scenarios, SARS-CoV-2 was capable of producing a substantial outbreak regardless of establishment time. Winter/spring establishments favored outbreaks with lower peaks, while autumn/winter establishments led to more acute outbreaks (tables S2 to S4 and fig. S7). The five-year cumulative incidence proxies were comparable for all establishment times (tables S2 to S4).

If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is not permanent, it will likely enter into regular circulation

Much like pandemic influenza, many scenarios lead to SARS-CoV-2 entering into long-term circulation alongside the other human betacoronaviruses (e.g., Fig. 3, A and B), possibly in annual, biennial, or sporadic patterns over the next five years (tables S2 to S4). Short-term immunity (on the order of 40 weeks, similar to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1) favors the establishment of annual SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, while longer-term immunity (two years) favors biennial outbreaks.

If immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is permanent, the virus could disappear for five or more years after causing a major outbreak

Long-term immunity consistently led to effective elimination of SARS-CoV-2 and lower overall incidence of infection. If SARS-CoV-2 induces cross immunity against HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, the incidence of all betacoronaviruses could decline and even virtually disappear (Fig. 3D). The virtual elimination of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 would be possible if SARS-CoV-2 induced 70% cross immunity against them, which is the same estimated level of cross-immunity that HCoV-OC43 induces against HCoV-HKU1.

SUMMARY

The total incidence of COVID-19 illness over the next five years will depend critically upon whether or not it enters into regular circulation after the initial pandemic wave, which in turn depends primarily upon the duration of immunity that SARS-CoV-2 infection imparts. The intensity and timing of pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks will depend on the time of year when widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection becomes established and, to a lesser degree, upon the magnitude of seasonal variation in transmissibility and the level of cross-immunity that exists between the betacoronaviruses. Social distancing strategies could reduce the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 infections strain health care systems. Highly-effective distancing could reduce SARS-CoV-2 incidence enough to make a strategy based on contact tracing and quarantine feasible, as in South Korea and Singapore. Less effective one-time distancing efforts may result in a prolonged single-peak epidemic, with the extent of strain on the healthcare system and the required duration of distancing depending on the effectiveness. Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.

[Giorno Giovanna 3,178]

you're a good one for highlighting the important parts and also serving sources

 

anyway, F U Corona-chan

[Brie Candy 18,650]

Spoiler

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[Guest]

yikes 2022 no thank u, hopefully wont happen

[Morphine Prince 109,729]

I was just reading up on how social distancing will probably have to be practiced more carefully until 2022. 

“Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.” 

We will be waiting UGH

[KindnessPunk28 1,506]

I REFUSE to be kept from my fiance for another two years. Sorry not happening. They better figure something out now 

[Stephen 30,433]

Ok but why are they talking about  SARS-CoV-2 as if everyone knows what that is  This is the first I'm hearing of it. I can't keep up. They keep pushing out the years further. I basically feel like my life is over even if I'm not infected. So ****ing depressing. 

[RAMROD 117,346]

So it is becoming like regular flu that humans need to evolve and adapt to combat it?

Jab that vaccine in me please as soon as it is official 

 

[LaLuna 12,732]

8 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Ok but why are they talking about  SARS-CoV-2 as if everyone knows what that is  This is the first I'm hearing of it. I can't keep up. They keep pushing out the years further. I basically feel like my life is over even if I'm not infected. So ****ing depressing. 

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus responsible for COVID-19. 

I know how you feel, they're basically saying our lives will be on hold for another two years, this is just ridiculous. I can't believe there is nothing we can do to eradicate that damn thing 

[ProdigyARTPOP 3,910]

So, just as we suspected. We’ve been right.

This is far from over and anyone who thinks that our winter is going to be normal, is in for a cruel reality. Without a vaccine, we’re in such blurry territory, let’s hope our governments can figure out how to better handle periods of social isolation.

[GregJA 5,556]

They already have plans for a vaccine this September (although I will doubt the medical scientists on that one)

we will however definitely have one next year - social distancing would be only if you don’t get it, and are immune compromised/old which if you are I’m not sure why you’d refuse the vaccine 

 

unfortunately I have a feeling this will be short term immunity and need a vaccine yearly like the flu (dont know if they can add it in like they did h1n1 every year or if it needs a separate vaccine)

[Brie Candy 18,650]

We have a looong way to go

My hopes are on new treatments before 2022 

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, GJA said:

They already have plans for a vaccine this September (although I will doubt the medical scientists on that one)

we will however definitely have one next year - social distancing would be only if you don’t get it, and are immune compromised/old which if you are I’m not sure why you’d refuse the vaccine 

 

unfortunately I have a feeling this will be short term immunity and need a vaccine yearly like the flu (dont know if they can add it in like they did h1n1 every year or if it needs a separate vaccine)

Quite luckily, this virus doesn't seem to mutate quickly. if it stays this way, it would be great new for a vaccine.

Clinical trials are taking place everywhere around the world and for different options (recovered people's plasma, old and already approved drugs) and new developments are also on the way. Hopefully something efficient will come out of this, fingers crossed.

[Shadow 6,697]

So severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 is suspected of being seasonal, which officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci mentioned about a week ago. It is very likely these strains will come back to haunt us next fall and into next year.  If herd immunity can't be reached soon, then we may have to implement social distancing strategies that safeguard those with preexisting conditions and older, vulnerable members of society more efficiently and longer periods in time than economies can be stalled for. 

So we may have to change the way we interact in society and make it work for up to two years or more...

 

 

[mister max 18,480]

Long-term immunity consistently led to effective elimination of SARS-CoV-2 and lower overall incidence of infection. If SARS-CoV-2 induces cross immunity against HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, the incidence of all betacoronaviruses could decline and even virtually disappear

I didnt know that wow  thats actually really interesting, hopefully it induces cross immunity