How long the pandemic might last - A must-watch video

[TheSlash 14,539]

Yesterday, German science-YouTuber maiLab released a video talking about how long it will probably take until the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is over. Mai has a doctor degree in Chemistry ( or even Biochemistry ) and works as a scientific journalist. On her YouTube channel maiLab she analyzes current scientific developments and describes them purely based on the actual scientific facts, boiled down to a level a non-scientist can understand it. This is not to advertise the channel, but to clarify that she is not just a random YouTuber talking about science, but she actually knows what she's doing. But now to the video.

The video itself is in German, so I highly advice you to turn on automatic subtitles ( not the already existing "English" one - weirdly it is also German  ). I will also put a very brief summary under the video (I hope I don't mess this up  ).

 

Here's the promised short summary:

In general, a pandemic can be stopped when around 60 to 70% of a population got the virus and recovered from it. This is called herd immunity . To reach that in Germany ( as she takes it as an example ) 48 to 56 million people would have to be immune.

Then there's a scientific number, the base reproduction number R0 . It indicates how many people getting infected by an infected person if there would be no immunity or precautions. Currently, this value for the SARS-CoV-2 virus is at 2 to 3, which means that every infected person infects two other people. To actually stop the pandemic, this number R0 has to be lower than 1, which is - as she phrases it - "Wuhan-style lockdown". At a fictional value of 0.5 for R0, the number of newly infected could be lowered to roughly 1,000 and the health care system could handle it again., It would also mean that most people could return to some kind of "normality" as the lockdown restrictions would only be applied to infected people.

Her final message was, that from her perspective, the pandemic will only end with the discovery and usage of a vaccine. Because to reach such a high number of herd immunity with such a low R0 would mean cataclysmic effects on both economy and society as we would have to keep up all the strict regulations for a very long period of time ( we're talking about years here ).

And my final message to you is: Stay safe, stay healthy, stay home    

Spoiler

Please bear with me on this one - this is my first Science thread  

@Mods: Please move this post to its appropriate place if it isn't the right one here

 

[PunkTheFunk 125,703]

The vaccine isn't coming until mid-next year. Until then I don't see how life can return to normal 

[MonsterMom 12,647]

[TheSlash 14,539]

16 minutes ago, PunkTheFunk said:

The vaccine isn't coming until mid-next year. Until then I don't see how life can return to normal 

Very optimistic predictions say the pandemic could be over in the spring of next year. But yeah, I don't expect anything vaccine-related before late fall/early winter.

[Babel 41,637]

Chromatica 2022 here we go

 

[Leblanc 2,494]

3 minutes ago, A mess said:

Chromatica 2022 here we go

 

It bothers me that the gif and the gif in your Avi arent synced 

[Bubblegum Bitch 18,934]

14 minutes ago, Qiyana said:

It bothers me that the gif and the gif in your Avi arent synced 

They are. Try to refresh the page! 

[TheSlash 14,539]

Quick update: The Robert-Koch-Institute today predicted a base reproduction number of 1 ( at least for Germany, I guess ), so this might be slightly more optimistic  

[ARTPOPSYCHOLOGY 6,283]

I mean I appreciate you spreading this knowledge but this is the kinda stuff that’s gets people all worked up and nervous. Just because there is no vaccine doesn’t mean that we’re going to be in this level of things shutdown until then. It’s unrealistic and actually impossible. Italy is beginning to flatten the curve, and by two weeks they’re R0 should be around or just below 1. The US is most likely hitting their peak this upcoming week or the next. Spain is basically at their peak now. And enough research hasn’t been conducted to see if the herd immunity thing actually is real until antibody testing is done which at least in the US, isn’t a priority right now. The focus is on the current cases and all of us continue to social distancing for probably the next 1-2 months. 
 

I think places are going to start to open around June/July but with limited capacity, hand washing stations, hand sanitizer, 6 ft away squares, etc. What really is going to be what helps is the amount of testing being done, PPE being provided to medical institutions, and hospital capacity increasing. As more months pass, more and more people would have recovered, or unfortunately die from the virus. As these weeks and months go on research continues, PPE becomes more available and testing will be basically be as easy as going to your primary care  physician. It’s possible to have a semi-functioning society by late summer, but yes, we won’t have to worry about this at all until late 2021 when the vaccine is available. But this notion that the vaccine is the only thing that can save us is incorrect.

[TimisaMonster 31,073]

I thought we knew this? Without a cure people will still spread it and die...especially because this pandemic has shown people care more about their civil freedoms and liberties than their own health and that of others. Selfish and stupid people everywhere WW including world leaders who down played the virus as nothing more than a common flu...

This isnt going anywhere at least for another year...the world is in prison rn cuz we ****ed up

[TheSlash 14,539]

4 minutes ago, ARTPOPSYCHOLOGY said:

But this notion that the vaccine is the only thing that can save us is incorrect.

She never said that vaccine is the only thing that could save us. She said, that it is the only way to end this pandemic in a time frame where the economical and social effects aren't that devastating. Otherwise it would take tremendously long until we would reach herd immunity and thus ending the pandemic.

6 minutes ago, TimisaMonster said:

I thought we knew this?

I think some, if not most, people do. But I thought it would be good to have an actual scientist speaking to us with actual facts than the news being given to us second- or even third-hand through television/news papers/media in general.

[ARTPOPSYCHOLOGY 6,283]

35 minutes ago, TimisaMonster said:

I thought we knew this? Without a cure people will still spread it and die...especially because this pandemic has shown people care more about their civil freedoms and liberties than their own health and that of others. Selfish and stupid people everywhere WW including world leaders who down played the virus as nothing more than a common flu...

This isnt going anywhere at least for another year...the world is in prison rn cuz we ****ed up

We’re not going to be like this for another year. Please

[PunkTheFunk 125,703]

1 hour ago, A mess said:

Chromatica 2022 here we go

 

The Pandemica Ball brought to you by Zoom Video Communications 

[Economy 52,834]

2 hours ago, PunkTheFunk said:

The vaccine isn't coming until mid-next year. Until then I don't see how life can return to normal 

If we have to be under lockdowns until then, there will be no normal life after mid next summer or a vaccine believe me

 

 

 

 

[Leblanc 2,494]

2 hours ago, Trillion Reasons said:

They are. Try to refresh the page! 

They still aren't 

Don't lie to me like that