LateToCult 41,861 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 If some of you are interested there’s this simple tool that gives you COVID-19 projections for every state in the US based on current data. It includes things like estimated deaths and peak days as well as how many hospital and ICU beds will be needed. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections Here’s what my state (Washington) is projected to look like: Remember, these are PROJECTIONS. The situation could still change for the better. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkchylde 14,857 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 i don't really understand how the death toll is -projected to be- much smaller in the US than europe even though their health system is a mess and theyve taken measures way too late? what's the science behind it? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LateToCult 41,861 Posted March 28, 2020 Author Share Posted March 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, darkchylde said: i don't really understand how the death toll is -projected to be- much smaller in the US than europe even though their health system is a mess and theyve taken measures way too late? what's the science behind it? What is Europe’s projected death rate? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maleficent 6 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, darkchylde said: i don't really understand how the death toll is -projected to be- much smaller in the US than europe even though their health system is a mess and theyve taken measures way too late? what's the science behind it? 1500~ deaths per state is a huge amount... Furthermore, Europe (and Asia) has the oldest population (90% of European countries are above the 35th place for World's Oldest Population, whereas the US and Canada are at 36 and 31 respectively) https://www.prb.org/countries-with-the-oldest-populations/ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maleficent 6 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 OT: Does this mean we can resume our normal lives by early-June? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LateToCult 41,861 Posted March 28, 2020 Author Share Posted March 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maleficent said: OT: Does this mean we can resume our normal lives by early-June? No one can really say. This data is just telling us that assuming we maintain social distancing practices throughout the next few months our peak will be reached sometime in April. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkchylde 14,857 Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, Maleficent said: 1500~ deaths per state is a huge oh it's per state! i'm stupid. 12 minutes ago, LateToCult said: What is Europe’s projected death rate? not sure but ie spain has aprox 6k deaths already Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurem 17,801 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 That's a very optimistic projection. I'm afraid it's gonna be much worse. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 My school wants us to return the day after its projected to have the peak about of cases and deaths Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucas 31,129 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, mauvais said: Good site in conjunction with https://covidactnow.org/ which tells you the day hospitals will be overwhelmed. They predict 80K deaths for the whole US at the very bottom of the page. 80,000 omg this is a disaster. Trump not putting a full quarantine on in the USA is literally murder There are ~31,000 deaths so far in the whole world (2200 being the USA). That's insane to think that so many people will die in the USA alone Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkchylde 14,857 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, mauvais said: Good site in conjunction with https://covidactnow.org/ which tells you the day hospitals will be overwhelmed. They predict 80K deaths for the whole US at the very bottom of the page. missed that Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix Rises 954 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 This is gonna be seasonal until we have a SAFE vaccine and ways of treating it . Nobodys ever faced this ,which is scary and the USA has tons of weapons but not PPE, first responders and nurses are dying . We were so ill equipped and Trump disbanded the CDC pandemic unit in 2018 . Wash yo hands and stay safe friends. Life will not be the same for awhile. spread love ,kindness & compassion 👹🖤!!!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonanon 932 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 From what I've seen on Twitter, people seem to think this is a pretty optimistic model due to the assumptions behind it. Also apparently they didn't use any type of mechanistic model and it's mostly based on empirical data so there could be a lot of variability. Here are some of the assumptions from the paper: "This study has generated the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for all US states, assuming that social distancing efforts will continue throughout the epidemic." "The timing of the implementation of social distancing mandates may be a critical determinant of peak demand and cumulative deaths. For states that have not implemented 3 of 4 measures (school closures, closing non-essential services, shelter-in-place, and major travel restrictions), we have assumed that they will be implemented within 7 days, given the rapid adoption of these measures in nearly all states. At this point in the epidemic, we have had to make arbitrary assumptions in our model on the equivalency between implementing 1, 2, or 3 measures – and we have implicitly assumed that implementing 3 of 4 measures will be enough to follow a trajectory similar to Wuhan – but it is plausible that it requires all 4 measures." This model lists my state's peak at April 17th, but the place I work just moved their projections from mid-April to mid-May so I would definitely expect these projections to evolve over time as well. Edited just now by anonanon Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morphine Prince 109,682 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 The projections without social distancing were horrendous. These numbers are still bad but nowhere near where we could have been tbh. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PartySick 172,545 Posted March 29, 2020 Share Posted March 29, 2020 Florida will hit its peak in mid-May 56 deaths a day but we're not projected to have a shortage of icu beds or beds in general so...yay? This whole thing is so sad. Whimsical bitch Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Featured Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.