COVID-19 Projections in the U.S.

[Economy 52,928]

1 minute ago, Franz Ferdinand said:

Bureaucratic delays are almost nonexistent when it comes to vaccine development, particularly in a time of crisis. They just need to show it is safe to use and has no long-term effects. Speaking as a research scientist, believe me, we want to deploy new drugs and vaccines as quickly as possible, but they must jump through every single hoop before made available, we cannot risk giving people something that they didn't sign up for. The reason behind it is because it has happened in the past and the results have been horrific (thalidomide in the 50s, for instance).

Regardless, though a vaccine would be great, I think it's safer to assume an antiviral treatment will be found effective first (and would be much easier to deploy and requires less long-term testing than vaccines). Treatments can buy us time until a vaccine becomes available. 

Ok that's very encouraging to know actually

 

Cuz on most things governments tend to be slow and take their time giving approvals

[TimisaMonster 31,073]

2 hours ago, ladylinners said:

Someone posted this in our COVID-19 thread at work. 

"New COVID-19 Forecasts: US Hospitals Could Be Overwhelmed in the Second Week of April by Demand for ICU Beds, and US Deaths Could Total 81,000 by July"

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-demand-icu

"IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths."

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

They project the U.S. will reach peak resource use on April 14th. This is also projected to be the peak count for daily deaths. 

There are also information and projections for each state. For example, CA's peak count for daily deaths is projected to be April 25th. All projections assume strong social distancing and other protective measures. 

Which I have seen none of...people are still out and about so unfortunately expect these numbers to be higher 

[ladylinners 485]

2 hours ago, Gagaloo92 said:

All projections assume strong social distancing and other protective measures. 

Welp.

Between people not listening and going out, and Trump trying to open the country back up in a couple weeks, it's probably gonna be much worse than this.

 

20 minutes ago, TimisaMonster said:

Which I have seen none of...people are still out and about so unfortunately expect these numbers to be higher 

https://covidactnow.org/

This website shows predictions for limited action, 3 months shelter in place (best and worst case) and 3 months lockdown. 

For example, with limited action CA's hospitals would be overloaded by April 12 and by May 2nd they would have close to 813,000 hospitalisations.