COVID-19 Projections in the U.S.

[ladylinners 485]

Someone posted this in our COVID-19 thread at work. 

"New COVID-19 Forecasts: US Hospitals Could Be Overwhelmed in the Second Week of April by Demand for ICU Beds, and US Deaths Could Total 81,000 by July"

http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-demand-icu

"IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, approximately 81,000 people will die from the virus. Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths."

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

They project the U.S. will reach peak resource use on April 14th. This is also projected to be the peak count for daily deaths. 

There are also information and projections for each state. For example, CA's peak count for daily deaths is projected to be April 25th. All projections assume strong social distancing and other protective measures. 

[Regina George 59,387]

Oh wow this sounds awful... 

[funkyhaus 7,697]

Alexa play Angel Down 

[Economy 52,847]

They really need to work on that vaccine ASAP.

 

Unfortunately it takes time to develop but I hope it doesn't get slowed down by the usual beaureocracy of processes it must go thru to go from testing phase to another

 

As soon as it's relatively clear it's safe don't wait to approve next stage

 

[ghs 3,343]

1 minute ago, Economy said:

They really need to work on that vaccine ASAP.

 

Unfortunately it takes time to develop but I hope it doesn't get slowed down by the usual beaureocracy of processes it must go thru to go from testing phase to another

 

As soon as it's relatively clear it's safe don't wait to approve next stage

 

Girl a vaccine would take AT LEAST 13 months (the least amount of time usually is about 18months so i'm being super optimistic here since this is a different situation)

[Leoj305 3,774]

Republicans: “7500 people die every day, open up the economy, the older people will risk it for the sake of America”.

 

 

[JINNOCIDE 3,840]

2 minutes ago, Economy said:

They really need to work on that vaccine ASAP.

Unfortunately it takes time to develop but I hope it doesn't get slowed down by the usual beaureocracy of processes it must go thru to go from testing phase to another

As soon as it's relatively clear it's safe don't wait to approve next stage

 

I'm not sure on this but someone told me that vaccines only PREVENT you from getting it, it's not the cure  So a bunch of people may still deal with the virus if they already caught it

but again I'm not sure on this

[Economy 52,847]

1 minute ago, ghs said:

Girl a vaccine would take AT LEAST 13 months (the least amount of time usually is about 18months so i'm being super optimistic here since this is a different situation)

I'm fully aware of how long they usually take that wasn't my point

 

I'm talking about them shortening it as much as they possibly can safely

 

Like when a phase is ready approve the next phases right away without unnecessary beaurocratic delays

[Johncayse 2,490]

2 minutes ago, Leoj305 said:

Republicans: “7500 people die every day, open up the economy, the older people will risk it for the sake of America”.

 

 

They have no brain to think that now is 7500 people +  deaths from corona 

[Economy 52,847]

28 minutes ago, JINNOCIDE said:

I'm not sure on this but someone told me that vaccines only PREVENT you from getting it, it's not the cure  So a bunch of people may still deal with the virus if they already caught it

but again I'm not sure on this

Well yeah. That's the whole point of the vaccine and then stop the spread

 

It won't help u if u already have it. Flu and viral vaccines never do

 

In fact the majority of vaccines only serve to prevent nothing more

[JINNOCIDE 3,840]

5 minutes ago, Leoj305 said:

Republicans: “7500 people die every day, open up the economy, the older people will risk it for the sake of America”.

This is the same argument Brazil's government is saying right now, including president's Bolsonaro saying it's a mild flu. Now there's a part of the country that hates the president they elected. Now that he showed no care about their family member's deaths they are seeing who he really is. I read a tweet that shook me, and it was something like:

"You're all scared because this is the first time the president shows to you that he doesn't care about your lives. When we told you that we didn't care about our lives (LGBT life) you guys elected him"

And honestly it's such a powerful tweet I--

[Gagaloo911 12,959]

All projections assume strong social distancing and other protective measures. 

Welp.

Between people not listening and going out, and Trump trying to open the country back up in a couple weeks, it's probably gonna be much worse than this.

[Franch Toast 27,737]

This is why I'm not leaving the house. If I don't go out and don't let anyone in, I can't catch it. 

(And we're using grocery delivery service, and I'm disinfecting every item that comes in vigilantly. Franchy doesn't mess around.)

Stay safe, friends, and stay home if you can. And wash or sanitize your hands after you touch things "out there." 

[Ronk 14,930]

10 minutes ago, Franch Toast said:

This is why I'm not leaving the house. If I don't go out and don't let anyone in, I can't catch it. 

(And we're using grocery delivery service, and I'm disinfecting every item that comes in vigilantly. Franchy doesn't mess around.)

Stay safe, friends, and stay home if you can. And wash or sanitize your hands after you touch things "out there." 

Doing exactly the same.

Stay safe, everyone. 

[Franz Ferdinand 2,359]

24 minutes ago, Economy said:

They really need to work on that vaccine ASAP.

 

Unfortunately it takes time to develop but I hope it doesn't get slowed down by the usual beaureocracy of processes it must go thru to go from testing phase to another

 

As soon as it's relatively clear it's safe don't wait to approve next stage

 

Bureaucratic delays are almost nonexistent when it comes to vaccine development, particularly in a time of crisis. They just need to show it is safe to use and has no long-term effects. Speaking as a research scientist, believe me, we want to deploy new drugs and vaccines as quickly as possible, but they must jump through every single hoop before made available, we cannot risk giving people something that they didn't sign up for. The reason behind it is because it has happened in the past and the results have been horrific (thalidomide in the 50s, for instance).

Regardless, though a vaccine would be great, I think it's safer to assume an antiviral treatment will be found effective first (and would be much easier to deploy and requires less long-term testing than vaccines). Treatments can buy us time until a vaccine becomes available.