Jump to content
Mayhem Requiem
society

Coronavirus: New York 4 Days Behind Italy


SMILE2NE1

Featured Posts

SMILE2NE1

covid-us-norm.png

US States, Confirmed Cases Per Million Inhabitants

The graph shows number of confirmed cases per million inhabitants, plotted on a log scale, against time. Each US state curve is shown offset by the amount shown in the key so as to align the curves.

Most US states are a long way behind European countries, but several now have comparable rates per million inhabitants. I have plotted the states with most confirmed cases.

Washington is ahead of many European countries, and only roughly five days behind Switzerland. It is not exactly clear how to place this curve though - European countries moved from 35% daily increase rate to 22% over time. The most recent trend line is lower than 22% and Washington is one of the few states with a decreasing fraction of positive tests, indicating that testing there is growing faster than infections.

New York was growing at close to the 35% daily increase rate seen in Europe, but has had large increases the last three days. This usually happens when cases have been spreading undetected, and suddenly testing starts catching up. I have placed New York based on the previous 35% growth phase, but today's datapoint would place New York four days behind Italy.

Colorado and Florida have been increasing at close to the 35% daily increase rate seen in Europe. However, live digital thermometer data now shows a large number of people there with a fever, so I expect to see a large increase in cases there soon.

California shows a slightly lower increase rate, and the data is very clean. It is possible the slower increase rate is due to warmer weather.

New Jersey, Louisiana and Michigan appear to be catching up on testing, so any underlying rate is impossible to determine.

***

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/?fbclid=IwAR0OffwclbhfQggba2zL62NwFIrhbI7fFHJzlQdm7DdxlNUL07iWbpraK5o#ww2

Link to post
Share on other sites

Morphine Prince

Flights to NYC are $35 :deadbanana:

Please stay safe if you guys live in New York!

Link to post
Share on other sites

SMILE2NE1
14 minutes ago, Twitter said:

I live in New York and knew this was gonna happen. :bradley: 

Stay safe

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...