538 now predicting that Sanders has the best odds of winning most delegates

[Emvee 8,825]

Bernie is most likely going to lose Iowa? 

The jury is still out on that one 

[POP2 4,206]

14 minutes ago, Postboy said:

Bernie is most likely going to lose Iowa? 

The jury is still out on that one 

I stand corrected! The odds are looking good for him now! Glad to be wrong on this one

[derpmonster 22,412]

4 hours ago, malazam said:

Wait..

Is this real?:I mean I get the electoral college but the superdelegates can simply ignore the popular vote?

Yes. In the Democratic National Convention, you need a certain number of delegates to win. These delegates include pledged delegates (these are awarded based on caucuses and primary votes) as well as superdelegates who are DNC members and Democratic US Congresspeople (aka much more likely to vote for the establishment candidate).

In 2016 and before that, superdelegates always got to vote. This made much of the actual primary process a sham. @FATCAT the new rule is that IF a candidate gets a majority of pledged delegates first, they win. If there is no majority (all candidates are below 50%) but there is a plurality (say someone has 45%, someone else has 43%, and the last person has 12%), the superdelegates will vote to get one candidate to the majority.

Ideally, they should vote to respect the public's vote and vote for the one who got 45%. If the one who got 43% is a party favorite, they may choose to vote for that person instead and get them to 50%, overriding the public choice. This is what Bernie supporters fear.

Because there are so many candidates running this time, it is unlikely for anyone to get a majority.

Superdelegates can vote however they want and yes, primaries are very undemocratic. The rules are made by the party. Welcome to the USA

To illustrate how big of an issue there is, currently Pete and Bernie each have 11 pledged delegates in Iowa. In Iowa alone, there are EIGHT superdelegates. And they have the full power to tip the scales. We know which one they'll pick.

[Chickens in Malibu 7,873]

5 hours ago, derpmonster said:

Yup, especially since we've got California which has over 500 delegates alone. Biden's small edge in SC won't be enough and we'll likely win NH with a margin. Then on Super Tuesday, California will likely decide the election. And we're currently leading in California.

Hopefully Warren drops out before Super Tuesday. Then about half of her voters will flock to Sanders.

Issue is, I'm afraid of a brokered convention.

If Bernie falls short of 2,000 delegates because of how he's splitting the vote, there'll be a brokered convention and we know what will happen. They'll probably pick an establishment candidate.

[melon 3,668]

I really really hope that the US doesn’t end up like we did in the UK.  Jeremy Corbyn was our equivalent of Bernie and we f***ed it two times with him

[Guest]

5 hours ago, malazam said:

Wait..

Is this real?:I mean I get the electoral college but the superdelegates can simply ignore the popular vote?

Yeah its insane! whats the point of voting if unelected people in power can override your vote? how is this a democracy?

[malazam 15,710]

15 minutes ago, Faysalaaa said:

Yeah its insane! whats the point of voting if unelected people in power can override your vote? how is this a democracy?

The thing is... it's not

[Bt1 5,213]

Lol  I thought this is about Iowa. 

There needs to remain only one progressive candidate and only one moderate, or else yea, Bernie will win easily. 

[derpmonster 22,412]

OMG HE NOW HAS A 50% CHANCE

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

@POP2 update the OP please