2020 US Election Polls

[Gov Hooka 8,008]

11 minutes ago, Postboy said:

The worry is the 2nd choice redistribution for this caucus. A lot of these candidates won’t make the cut and some of those supporters will undoubtedly go to Biden. 

This I'm really worried about buttigieg and klobuchar supporters going for biden...

the good news is that Bernie will likely do well in Iowa, enough to get second. but it's still up in the air if he will win 

[Guillaume Hamon 6,992]

4 hours ago, stevana229 said:

im honestly here for ANY democrat over Trump

Same and I think nearly all the democrats supporters would also chose any dem' but Trump!

It's just that while were at it let's have the candidate who got the most donations from individuals, who get the most enthusiastic answer, get the youth vote when the youth doesn't always go to vote etc...

All of these will be important to not have Trump reelected cause he'll face a dem' candidate that don't really have die-hard supporters but rather people who are cool with him/her and  will not actually go to vote cause they don't stan the person so hard. 

Sanders supporters are not undecided or checking what's out there, they're very much for him since a while so they'll be more faithful when it will come to not go for a third party or vote Trump.  

A survey shown they were the less likely among dem bases in this campaign to vote for Trump, we need to avoid to have a candidate whose own base will feel like potentially going for Trump. and sanders is the best for that. 

[derpmonster 22,412]

On 1/25/2020 at 6:00 PM, Halsey said:

Sis you clearly aren’t an American voter or very informed. Biden & Clinton are VERYYY different candidates. And neither identify with centrism, they are further to the left than that. Biden is actually more liberal leaning than Clinton, he actually tried to persuade Clinton/Obama against military involvement on multiple occasions, was pro LGBT before many Democrats, and is very pro labor/union (who have endorsed him extensively).

Sis you've shown you have little knowledge of political science. Liberal does NOT mean left.

By saying Biden is more liberal, you're showing he's not left. Liberals tend to be center to center-left whereas progressives are further left.

And Clinton (at least after the nomination) coopted half of Bernie's platform cause it was so popular, so yeah she was more progressive (left leaning, NOT liberal) than Biden.  Biden doesn't want debt-free college. He's worse than Clinton.

[PoshLife 17,019]

14 hours ago, derpmonster said:

Sis you've shown you have little knowledge of political science. Liberal does NOT mean left.

By saying Biden is more liberal, you're showing he's not left. Liberals tend to be center to center-left whereas progressives are further left.

And Clinton (at least after the nomination) coopted half of Bernie's platform cause it was so popular, so yeah she was more progressive (left leaning, NOT liberal) than Biden.  Biden doesn't want debt-free college. He's worse than Clinton.

This isn't really a fair response; the word "liberal" means something different in American politics than it means in, say, the UK where the Liberal Democrats are to the right of Labour. Perhaps Halsey is right that you're not American? Because I'm not sure where else you'd get the notion that "liberal" doesn't mean "on the political left." In America, that's exactly what it means.

Also, another way of framing "Clinton co-opted half of Bernie's platform" is "Clinton adopted half of Bernie's platform recognizing that was where public sentiment is." Is that shrewdly political? Of course. But don't you want your politicians to do as you ask?

My understanding is that Biden thinks community college should be free, but not private four-year universities. That's obviously not nearly as extensive as Warren's or Sanders' higher education plans, but the idea is that there's a career path for every American even if they can't afford four-year school.

[Andy McQueen 4,484]

Bernie has to win 
 

 

[derpmonster 22,412]

29 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

This isn't really a fair response; the word "liberal" means something different in American politics than it means in, say, the UK where the Liberal Democrats are to the right of Labour. Perhaps Halsey is right that you're not American? Because I'm not sure where else you'd get the notion that "liberal" doesn't mean "on the political left." In America, that's exactly what it means.

Also, another way of framing "Clinton co-opted half of Bernie's platform" is "Clinton adopted half of Bernie's platform recognizing that was where public sentiment is." Is that shrewdly political? Of course. But don't you want your politicians to do as you ask?

My understanding is that Biden thinks community college should be free, but not private four-year universities. That's obviously not nearly as extensive as Warren's or Sanders' higher education plans, but the idea is that there's a career path for every American even if they can't afford four-year school.

Their response wasn't directed at me, I live in the US, and I understand American politics well. Liberal tends to refer to socially liberal in the US for the most part but when we're talking in political science terms, liberal and leftist are incompatible. Liberals often stop just short of progressive overhauls of political systems and they're typically okay with existing systems with bandaids put on them. Leftists/progressives want major change. It's where Warren's "big structural change" rhetoric comes from.

Also, I have no problem saying, "Clinton adopted half of Bernie's platform recognizing that was where public sentiment is." I don't see what the issue is.  That, in fact, helps Bernie because it shows public sentiment was towards his platform even though Clinton won the nomination and she was forced to adopt much of his platform.

Joe Biden's plan is obviously even worse than the "debt free college" compromise that Clinton settled on. He thinks two years of community college should be free which will, at most, get you an Associate's degree whereas most jobs requiring college degrees start at Bachelors degrees. If one wishes to pursue a Bachelors under this plan, they will have to pay for two whole years of college which will cost $30k if you are in-state (University of California, a state university highly subsidized for in-state students). $100k if you are out of state.

[HorusRa2 5,005]

On 1/26/2020 at 1:20 PM, Halsey said:

We already pay incredibly high income taxes (over 50%) because we live in an expensive coastal state but the state gives our town no money bc it’s affluent so we hen have additional astronomical local taxes. So a 4% income tax raise is out of question, and Idrc if it might help some other person get healthcare. It’d literally destroy our family’s finances.  Our healthcare is already phenomenal and covered by my parents work with minimal expenses. I’ve had high line dental procedures even with us barely paying a few hundred dollar fees. I’m not risking that to be stuck on some government system like the UK’s NHS, where I’ll have to wait a million yrs to see my preferred doctor. 

 

We are in that 100k+ category and see the doctor minimally so yes, we would be screwed. And I don’t really want that.

Just to add Pete said on his townhall that the Medicare for all who want it would cost 8.5% of your income whereas Medicare for All asked for 4%. Just something to keep in mind. 

Also: the highest federal income tax bracket is 37% so idk where you’re getting 50% from. 

[President Biden 5,898]

1 hour ago, HorusRa2 said:

Just to add Pete said on his townhall that the Medicare for all who want it would cost 8.5% of your income whereas Medicare for All asked for 4%. Just something to keep in mind. 

Also: the highest federal income tax bracket is 37% so idk where you’re getting 50% from. 

That’s combined State & Federal & Local

[PoshLife 17,019]

One thing I'm looking at, from a national polling standpoint, is the fact that Biden's support has remained extremely steady over the past three months; he's gone up about a point in his polling average since late October. But Sanders has gone up about six points - so the race is definitely tightening, not because people are moving away from Biden, but because other people are moving towards Sanders.

I'm not sure where exactly his new supporters are coming from; Warren has fallen six points in the same three-month period, but her decline mostly occurred in November and early December, while she was receiving a lot of negative attention on Medicare for All and how she would pay for it. Contrary to popular opinion, her numbers haven't seemed to go down because of the Sanders feud;  over the past month, her average has been exactly the same even while Sanders has shot upward. So I don't think all of Sanders' new supporters are Warren defectors. 

Do I think Sanders can maintain his current trajectory? I'm not sure. Keep in mind Warren's rise back in September/October seemed extremely steady and sustainable at the time (in contrast to Harris's gigantic, and very short-lived, bump she got from her first debate where she went after Biden on race issues). Not many people were predicting she'd fall back down again like she has. It's likely that he will win or place a strong second in both Iowa and New Hampshire, which could continue to propel him when he might otherwise have plateaued. If that happens, then his polling rise will have been extremely well-timed.

Another tidbit: Bloomberg has come out of nowhere and is now running about even with Buttigieg nationally (though he'll have very poor showings in the early voting states since he's not campaigning or advertising there). I've heard some analysts say Bloomberg cost Buttigieg his momentum; indeed, Buttigieg has fallen four points since a peak in late November which does seem to align with Bloomberg's rise. Do we get to a point where Bloomberg's momentum starts pulling moderate voters away from Biden?

(If you click here and set it to 3 months, you'll see all of the trend lines I'm referring to. I don't know how to embed a screenshot here in a post-imgur world  )

[HorusRa2 5,005]

Sanders: 26% +2 

Warren: 20% -2

Biden: 15% +1

Buttigieg: 7% -5 

Bloomberg: 6% +4 

New California poll! 2895  likely voters. Margin of Error is 2.5 pts. The Change from previous poll is next to the candidates and is compared to the last poll done in November. 

 

[Harris Walz 2024 1,451]

Buttigieg surges in poll ahead of New Hampshire primary.

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg's support has surged in New Hampshire ahead of the state's primary, according to a new WBZ–Boston Globe–Suffolk University daily tracking poll released on Thursday night. 

The former South Bend, Ind., mayor's support shot up 4 points, to 23 percent, in the state over the past 24 hours, according to the survey. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) still leads with 24 percent support, but the latest results put the two candidates closer in a virtual tie. 

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) came in with 13 percent support in the poll, and former Vice President Joe Biden garnered 11 percent support in the Granite State. 

The latest tracking poll number comes as Buttigieg and Sanders are locked in a dead heat in Iowa after the first-in-the-nation caucuses with 100 percent of the results in. 

Buttigieg leads by a narrow margin with 26.2 percent among Iowa state delegate equivalents, while Sanders is on his heels at 26.1 percent. 

Despite the tight race, both campaigns declared victory on Thursday night. 

"It's fantastic news to hear that we won," Buttigieg said at a CNN town hall in Manchester, N.H. "I want to say that Sen. Sanders had a great night too, and I want to congratulate him and his supporters." 

Meanwhile, senior Sanders campaign adviser Jeff Weaver released a statement touting what they said was a win in Iowa. 

“Tonight's release of data by the Iowa Democratic Party confirms Sen. Bernie Sanders won the Iowa caucus,” Weaver said. 

The WBZ–Boston Globe–Suffolk University daily tracking poll is made up of a two-day rolling sample of 500 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. 

 

Going to be another close race !

[Arturo 40,746]

Suffolk is not a good pollster based on what they had for Iowa

[Chickens in Malibu 7,873]

Sad

[Economy 52,861]

Pete and Sanders are really gonna fight for it in this race aren't they? And I thought it was gonna be Biden vs Sanders

 

So it looks like it's gonna be Sanders Vs Pete neck to neck and Elizabeth always the next runner up with enough points to be relevant but never win

 

And the rest of the candidates should just jump ship cuz they are going nowhere

[Chromatica 7,042]

He’s shockingly more viable than I anticipated.