Sanders leading in new Iowa poll

[Hybrid AT 78]

Great poll for Bernie. But again, he won't win Iowa. It's Pete who will win, particularly because of this:

Iowa is a caucus. The field will remain fluid until last week and even the last few days. This townhall is what will tip the scales in his favor, since he will get some Republicans to change party affiliation. Fortunately, Iowa has same-day party registration. He also has an advantage since he is no longer a mayor and can campaign full time meanwhile Bernie/Warren/Klobuchar will be busy with impeachment trials in the Senate.

Pete 2020 baby! 

[TheQueenEnthusiast 937]

10 hours ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

...Again, the point is not that it is factually inaccurate or unfair to say that its a tight race, its that they tend to do so whenever its politically expedient to support someone centrist like Biden or Buttigieg, usually at the expense of someone like Sanders, and that they have had no such qualms about labeling someone like Biden or Buttigieg "winners" or "in the lead" even when things have been in the MoE in the past. They have even factually misrepresented polling and selectively interpreted polling to push that narrative  

Also, yes, mainstream media in the last week is starting to wake up to the fact that they have undersold and dismissed Bernie in the last year. That is what progressives have been predicting. They ultimately operate on news cycles and when one major article is written, or two, it becomes harder to ignore. Also, if Bernie wins Iowa/NH, it would look bad for CNN to have "failed to see it coming" and for pollsters to once again be deemed "unreliable" so its best for them to get ahead of the story in case he does win, just from a business/marketing standpoint.

can we get married

[Miracle 14,068]

33 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

Great poll for Bernie. But again, he won't win Iowa. It's Pete who will win, particularly because of this:

Iowa is a caucus. The field will remain fluid until last week and even the last few days. This townhall is what will tip the scales in his favor, since he will get some Republicans to change party affiliation. Fortunately, Iowa has same-day party registration. He also has an advantage since he is no longer a mayor and can campaign full time meanwhile Bernie/Warren/Klobuchar will be busy with impeachment trials in the Senate.

Pete 2020 baby! 

Pete 2020 means Trump 2020-2024 and who knows what will be left of the US democracy after another 4 years of Trump so good luck with Pete The Neoliberal F word

[REALITY 80,184]

2 hours ago, Guillaume Hamon said:

True, nearly all the others candidates would have a certain number of  their past votes& statements used against them to portray them as hypocritical when they'll bash Trump for not doing this or that...

Sanders has a very consistent record overall  so he can't be "easily debunked overnight" as many of the dems running in this campaign...

Exactly! Every other candidate has something against them that Trump could use to make them look bad or hypocritical, especially with Biden. Bernie doesn’t have that issue. He’s been consistent on his policies and on his stances for literal decades. The only thing Trump could argue with with Bernie would be on policy, and I have no doubt that Bernie could beat him arguing that. 

[Lilmonzter 2,864]

The bern bus is here just get on it and roll

Be very afraid ya orange toad papa Bernie is coming for you!

Biden is a two time failed presidential candidate just putting it out there

 

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

58 minutes ago, HybridAT said:

Great poll for Bernie. But again, he won't win Iowa. It's Pete who will win, particularly because of this:

Iowa is a caucus. The field will remain fluid until last week and even the last few days. This townhall is what will tip the scales in his favor, since he will get some Republicans to change party affiliation. Fortunately, Iowa has same-day party registration. He also has an advantage since he is no longer a mayor and can campaign full time meanwhile Bernie/Warren/Klobuchar will be busy with impeachment trials in the Senate.

Pete 2020 baby! 

That's... quite a reach sis.

Iowa is a caucus, but it is still a closed primary. This would mean that Republicans will watch the Town Hall, go change their official party affiliation, and then spend all day caucusing for Pete Buttigieg just because he does a town hall. That is possibly the least likely event that you could bank on unless his Town Hall is a success of spiritual proportions and is widely reported on, circulated, and watched live, just in a few days -  no offense  

If Pete wins Iowa, it will be because of the groundwork he has laid down in the state early on and because of excitement for his campaign as well as decreased voter turn compared to expectations for the other candidates, not because of this. The potential lack of campaigning from Sanders/Warren/the Klob could be part of it but would be more likely to affect Warren and Amy than Bernie. Similarly, this part could benefit Joe Biden as well.

[HorusRa2 5,005]

7 hours ago, Economy said:

I notice Iowa gets mentioned a lot in election why is that? doesn't it only have like 3 million people?

 

Does it have disproportionately more electorial votes or something? What makes it so important?

Let’s just say that 7 of the last 10 Democrats who won Iowa went on to be the nominee. 

[HorusRa2 5,005]

3 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

That's... quite a reach sis.

Iowa is a caucus, but it is still a closed primary. This would mean that Republicans will watch the Town Hall, go change their official party affiliation, and then spend all day caucusing for Pete Buttigieg just because he does a town hall. That is possibly the least likely event that you could bank on unless his Town Hall is a success of spiritual proportions and is widely reported on, circulated, and watched live, just in a few days -  no offense  

If Pete wins Iowa, it will be because of the groundwork he has laid down in the state early on and because of excitement for his campaign as well as decreased voter turn compared to expectations for the other candidates, not because of this. The potential lack of campaigning from Sanders/Warren/the Klob could be part of it but would be more likely to affect Warren and Amy than Bernie. Similarly, this part could benefit Joe Biden as well.

The only way Pete wins Iowa is if over 50 crowd turns out to like 90%+ turnout.

[ItsTommyBitch 12,640]

12 minutes ago, HorusRa2 said:

The only way Pete wins Iowa is if the over 50 crowd turns out to like 90%+ turnout.

True.

I have faith in the Sanders organizing team to get these kids and new people out to caucus, and the consistent excitement in his base in the early states of people who are absolutely dedicated to voting, caucusing, and bringing people to vote makes me hopeful, but In my darker moments I get skeptical if it'll be enough to make him overperform like in 2016.

Also, caucusing sounds stupid, but It baffles me that pundits who think young people won't do it think its because Millennials and Gen-Z are just like... actually inept in situations that take time and can't deal with it? It's hilarious that they think Sanders support is "not about ideology or policy, but about him as a divine figure" (that's a quote) but ALSO think that Millennials are gonna be there for 30 minutes, get bored, and leave w.o seeing it all through to the end. Like, the mutual disdain and underestimate of Sanders Supporters and lack of understanding of two generations of people culturally  If Bernie is truly a Trumpian figure, and we've seen how resilient and dedicated his base is, why do they suddenly think Bernie's just won't be?  

The only thing I could see working against Sanders is that people over the age of 65 are probably more likely to be able to take a whole day off or w.e and not have obligations, and later caucusing might benefit them institutionally because younger people have less freedom to do things such as that. That would be a shame.

[ode 1,534]

LET'S GO,

WARREN! ! ! ! !

 

LET'S GO,

WARREN ! ! ! ! !

 

:-D

 

big, structural change with the woman who's proven her ability to stand up for the average working class American, to take on powerful special interests who have bribed most other politicans into silence --- and, against all odds, to win.


I'll be all on board if Bernie gets the nomination, but -- come on -- he's spent most of his career being a well-intentioned gadfly in congress. He's made some admirable stands over the years -- but I don't think being the oldest, loudest radical in congress makes him the best qualified candidate to realize the basic progressive goals of anti-corruption reforms, universal healthcare, and economic justice. Being an outsider for most of your life doesn't necessarily mean youre ineffective -- but it does mean you know less about how to accomplish big things than the lawyer/Harvard professor who just whistled her way into D.C. and happened to create an entire new government agency dedicated to helping consumers.


/rant over

/ TLDR: vote for the smart, accomplished lady who hasn't had a heart attack this year. she's more likely to deliver on these promises than the guy who yelled for 20 years in congress and then, suddenly, got famous for it in 2016 when he ran for president.

 

 

/ but they're both wonderful

[ode 1,534]

LGBTQ

as in

Let's 
Get
Buttigieg
To 
Quit

[ode 1,534]

34 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

 

If Pete wins Iowa, it will be because of the groundwork he has laid down in the state early on and because of excitement for his campaign as well as decreased voter turn compared to expectations for the other candidates...

 

No.

if Pete wins Iowa or any other state, it will be because he has fully sold his soul to corporate powers like Facebook in order to get the tech wizards' help in buying week after week of positive press coverage, strategic ad buys, and a team of pollsters/PR ppl/staffers who have strategically recreated Pete into a model of The Most Likable Candidate For Iowa and NH Voters!

 

If Pete wins, it's because he has no back bone and simply gave in to the power of dark money in politics.

 

If Pete wins, it's because Americans are IDIOTS who don't realize that this is still a very homophobic country -- even if the bias is a bit more subtle in some places -- and we'll never actually elect a gay guy to the white house.

 

If Pete wins, it's because a bunch of voters in New England felt bad about all the years they were homophobic before it was cool to be gay-friendly, and so they're acting all excited for this cabbage patch doll-looking mayor because, like, I can't be biased against queer people; I voted for Pete!  

[ode 1,534]

12 hours ago, PoshLife said:

She'd be crazy to withdraw. It was just a few months ago that she was up nationally in a big way and I'm sure she feels that she can  capture that again.

She's going into voting season decently positioned, too: the race is very fluid right now, she just got the Castro endorsement that could help her in Hispanic-heavy states (like delegate-rich Texas!!), and she's obviously going to get delegates from the first two voting states (she may even come in second in one of them). So she'll start the actual voting process well-positioned. Then she'll get a bunch more on Super Tuesday when she wins Massachusetts and potentially California, and presumably breaks 15% in several more states. Between that and at least four more debate opportunities to stand out, it's not impossible to believe she could change her trajectory and make a comeback.

Warren is also the first candidate to be fully staffed in super tuesday states like TN. :-D 

We out here knocking on doors, sending emails, fighting for a president whose first priority will be anti-corruption reform so that our government NEVER fails us for half a century again.

When Warren was leading the polls, all the pundits kept saying "OH NO, YOU DON'T WANT TO PEAK TOO EARLY -- IT'S BETTER TO LINGER IN THE MIDDLE A WHILE LONGER AND THEN CLOSE IN ON 1ST PLACE IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS!"

Then, when she dropped, they all pronounced her campaign as terminally ill, near death, etc.

And now? She's in a dead heat with Biden&Butthead, and her main competition is from a political ally that the mainstream media has also been busy announcing the slow decline of...

This is gonna be an amazing primary season




Edit: Also, what the f&*k @ the six point surge in undecided voters? How can the field be narrowing but more people being like "IDK"?

[Hybrid AT 78]

26 minutes ago, ode said:

 

No.

if Pete wins Iowa or any other state, it will be because he has fully sold his soul to corporate powers like Facebook in order to get the tech wizards' help in buying week after week of positive press coverage, strategic ad buys, and a team of pollsters/PR ppl/staffers who have strategically recreated Pete into a model of The Most Likable Candidate For Iowa and NH Voters!

 

If Pete wins, it's because he has no back bone and simply gave in to the power of dark money in politics.

 

If Pete wins, it's because Americans are IDIOTS who don't realize that this is still a very homophobic country -- even if the bias is a bit more subtle in some places -- and we'll never actually elect a gay guy to the white house.

 

If Pete wins, it's because a bunch of voters in New England felt bad about all the years they were homophobic before it was cool to be gay-friendly, and so they're acting all excited for this cabbage patch doll-looking mayor because, like, I can't be biased against queer people; I voted for Pete!  

So much bitterness and hatred? Sis, just get a life honestly. You could be doing so much better with your life than, you know, hating a fellow gay man for his historic candidacy. Thankfully, a majority of America doesn't have this garbage filled in their heads. Sigh.

[Hybrid AT 78]

37 minutes ago, ode said:

LGBTQ

as in

Let's 
Get
Buttigieg
To 
Quit

Sad.

I have bad news for you, he's not quitting. Now go find a hobby.