Buttigieg Gains 6 Percent in New Q-poll

[hankhatesyouall 2,731]

 

[HorusRa2 5,005]

What's fascinating about this poll (and just generally this moment in time for the primary) is that Warren and Pete have very similar coalitions. Polling still suggests that Warren and Pete's support is still soft whereas Bernie and Biden supporters are majority people who are saying they made up their mind that they are voting for one or the other. You can expect to see Warren/Pete go back and forth depending on whether or not the media is giving them the assist. You can go back and see that the same is true for when Beto got the boost, Kamala got the boost, and also when Warren got her boost that Pete's support will go down in about a month by about 5 points from wherever he ends up peaking on. What will be important is how much he actually goes up and how much he's able to keep after the media moves on to the next test subject. 

[rumours 45,521]

Come through BootyJudge

[Othon 34,299]

One of the biggest outlier polls I’ve seen.

In the national polling averages, Sanders just retook second place from Warren and Buttigieg is in a distant fourth, 10 points behind the three leaders.

[PartySick 172,385]

2 minutes ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

One of the biggest outlier polls I’ve seen.

In the national polling averages, Sanders just retook second place from Warren and Buttigieg is in a distant fourth, 10 points behind the three leaders.

It's still a crime that Biden is in front of both of them

[HorusRa2 5,005]

6 minutes ago, PartySick said:

It's still a crime that Biden is in front of both of them

Biden's support is going to stay that way until Iowa and New Hampshire, but when his support actually drops, it's going to go rapidly. People at the end of the day want to back a winner and right now Biden is poised to place in 4th in both Iowa and New Hampshire. 

[JusKeepBreathin 19,311]

Apparently any poll that shows gains for Buttigieg is an outlier poll. 

[Othon 34,299]

4 minutes ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

Apparently any poll that shows gains for Buttigieg is an outlier poll. 

I... it’s the definition of an outlier poll. What are you talking about?

This is the only major national poll that has him even remotely close to the top three, let alone in second place. The RCP average has him nearly 10 points behind the top three, even with this poll included in the average.

If this isn’t an outlier poll, literally what is? 

[HorusRa2 5,005]

26 minutes ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

One of the biggest outlier polls I’ve seen.

In the national polling averages, Sanders just retook second place from Warren and Buttigieg is in a distant fourth, 10 points behind the three leaders.

To be fair, Emerson and Yougov are also outlier polls for Bernie/Warren with Emerson usually positive for Bernie and negative for Warren whereas Yougov is negative for Bernie and positive for Warren. That's why the aggregate of polls are important (like you mentioned). I think the support and the poll is relatively accurate. It's coinciding with Pete's glowing media coverage and a debate where he was not challenged on his record by anyone other than Tulsi.

 

If anything, what we are seeing is that the people who were supporting Warren that are now part of Pete's coalition are people who like the Medicare public option idea and were turned off by Warren's inability to explain her pay for and when she did, she tied it to issues that make it too complicated and impossible to pass. Now, they've found a home in Pete who really came up with the Medicare for all who want it idea before Warren tried to steal it so she could do the good old pivot to the center. 

 

This also proves that Bernie is being underestimated here. It proves that voters really care about healthcare and Bernie is generally seen as the strongest on healthcare since M4A is his core issue as a candidate. I think the polls under-sample Bernie's support and other campaigns should be worried that Bernie is going to run away with this thing for being consistent and strong on the #1 issue to voters. 

[ItWasntLaauv 6,392]

I would literally give everything to have Yang rise in the polls, but instead, a cringey, out of touch, corrupt gay is. 

[Bonkers 30,860]

3 hours ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

One of the biggest outlier polls I’ve seen.

In the national polling averages, Sanders just retook second place from Warren and Buttigieg is in a distant fourth, 10 points behind the three leaders.

The average where Bernie saw gains was due to which polls were included.  Emerson is the one poll where Bernie has always been in the mid twenties so the average was swayed in his favor for that period.  They all see benefit and detriment based in which polls make the average.  Bernie isnt gaining so much as Elizabeth is struggling.

As far as being an outlier, it's actually the first quality poll since the debates.   Because it's a phone poll, it will help those with an older base and hurt those with a younger.  That's why we look at several polls and consider how the methodology of each one affects individual candidates 

I always compare poll to poll to see how things are moving.  

[PoshLife 17,019]

It's almost as if hacktivists who write screeds on the Internet don't accurately reflect the broader electorate. 

[BARCODE 1,141]

1 hour ago, JusKeepBreathin said:

Apparently any poll that shows gains for Buttigieg is an outlier poll. 

THANK YOU! The gay hatred for gay Buttigieg is sadly not shocking to me. 

The fact is the gay community in my experience treats it's own members like **** in everything from music to acting to politics. We are literally the Amazon Warehouse of minorities when it comes to how we treat our own. 

SMH

I read a really great article about the double standard in the Washington Post. Its JUST AS BAD as "no fats, no fems, no asians" to say "he's not queer enough". Being gay has nothing to do with acting feminine or masculine. It goes both ways. 

If Buttigieg was referencing Beyonce and Gaga you'd all be stanning him right now. Agree with him or not but I think gays should just be proud that this early in the race a midwestern openly married gay man is this high in polls and could have a shot. 

 

Instead you're nitpicking and using bullshit articles and saying he's racist because he doesn't have a huge black following. When infact, his policies for minority communities are some of the best ones. What do you want him to do...pull a gimmicky hot sauce line ala Hillary in 2016? Cuz that REALLY worked out nicely. He's just being himself. And there are ALOT of gay men like him. 

He COULD be the candidate so stop dogging him so much before the Iowa Caucus has even happened. Sheesh. 

 

 

[HorusRa2 5,005]

2 minutes ago, PoshLife said:

It's almost as if hacktivists who write screeds on the Internet don't accurately reflect the broader electorate. 

Or that polls over sample what they consider “likely” voters and skew their polling for older voters even though 2018 midterms and elections this year show huge increases in younger voter turnout. These polls do not include people who will end up voting that aren’t considered a likely voter and so people like you are going to be surprised when the voting tally does need end up like the polls especially in caucus states. 

[PoshLife 17,019]

2 hours ago, HorusRa2 said:

Or that polls over sample what they consider “likely” voters and skew their polling for older voters even though 2018 midterms and elections this year show huge increases in younger voter turnout. These polls do not include people who will end up voting that aren’t considered a likely voter and so people like you are going to be surprised when the voting tally does need end up like the polls especially in caucus states. 

You are conflating two different statistics. Yes, voter turnout among young people jumped from 2014 to 2018 (comparable mid-term election years; you wouldn't compare 2016 to 2018). BUT, voter turnout was still far higher among older age groups than younger. It is completely reasonable for a polling firm to include more older people than younger.

You can learn more here: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

I'm well aware that caucus states look different from primary states (caucuses should be abolished, by the way, and I'm glad to see some states take steps to do that since they're exclusionary). But you're also aware that the demographic differences between who participates in caucuses vs. ballot primaries did not stop Hillary Clinton from getting FAR, far, far more votes than Bernie Sanders three years ago.

At any rate, you don't look like Miss Cleo, so I'm going to take your prediction for voter turnout in the 2020 primaries with a grain of salt if you don't mind.