Sanders tied with Biden for first in new national poll

[Brainiac 11,171]

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/11/21/november-national-poll-support-for-impeachment-declines-biden-and-sanders-lead-democratic-primary/

Quote

Senator Bernie Sanders is gaining momentum in the race for the Democratic nomination, increasing 2 points from October to at 27%. Former Vice President Joe Biden is also at 27%, holding steady from October. Senator Elizabeth Warren is in third place at 20%, down a point. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 7% and Andrew Yang rounds out the top 5 at 4%. All other candidates are below 4%. (MM, n= 468, +/- 4.6%)

Sanders continues to hold a strong lead with younger voters in the primary. Among voters under 50, Sanders received 37% support, followed by Warren with 22%, Biden with 15% and Yang with 7%. Among voters 50 and over, Biden continues to lead with 44% support, followed by Warren with 16%, Sanders with 13% and Buttigieg with 12%.

Herrreeee comes Bernie!!

[tomsches 17,550]

if Warren and Sanders teamed up they would beat anybody. 

[Othon 34,299]

You love to see it. 

[weed 78,871]

5 minutes ago, tomsches said:

if Warren and Sanders teamed up they would beat anybody. 

honestlyyyy I know they're still campaigning but if one was vp to the other it would be a gag (does that happen?? or it's always someone else)

[Matangi 3,050]

11 minutes ago, weed said:

honestlyyyy I know they're still campaigning but if one was vp to the other it would be a gag (does that happen?? or it's always someone else)

definitely does happen! However I imagine Sanders has a VP pick from outside were he to be the nominee.

[Matangi 3,050]

17 minutes ago, tomsches said:

if Warren and Sanders teamed up they would beat anybody. 

True, they would be unstoppable. However, most of the demographics of their voting blocs are very different. Warren's voters are much more similar to Pete Buttigieg's and Kamala Harris'

[BgRaEgTaT 1,543]

And the mainstream media will ignore it 

[Bonkers 30,860]

Emerson polls once per month.  It's the only poll that Bernie regularly tests in the mid-twenties.   Most polls have their own bias due to each different methodology.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

If you look at the past Emerson results, you'll see what I mean. 


And don't worry, this is not a criticism of Bernie.  A lot of polls don't represent his support, or don't fairly represent it.  

[HorusRa2 5,005]

5 minutes ago, Bonkers said:

Emerson polls once per month.  It's the only poll that Bernie regularly tests in the mid-twenties.   Most polls have their own bias due to each different methodology.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

If you look at the past Emerson results, you'll see what I mean. 


And don't worry, this is not a criticism of Bernie.  A lot of polls don't represent his support, or don't fairly represent it.  

It's really fascinating to see there are consistent polling trends specific to candidates from these different pollsters. Yougov/Economist has a similar bias towards Elizabeth Warren, albeit I think Biden was beating her in the most recent one for the first time in a long time. But in general and the reason why people who criticize Bernie and his ability to win the nomination are generally wrong is that most polling over sample older voters or are entirely landline driven. An example of the most recent poll of New Hampshire that had Bernie with 9%, the poll over sampled people with a gradudate/secondary degree and people making over 100K, Bernie's weakest demo and Pete's best. So nobody should be surprised that Pete jumped 14 points poll over poll. I say all of this to say that using weighted polls may not necessarily be accurate either because we don't know what the turnout is actually going to be with people under 50 relative to the people over 50. Bernie and Biden's results are going to really depend on the answer to that question. The recent trend since the 2018 midterms is that there will be a HUGE increase in younger voters, which would indicate higher turnout for Bernie over Biden and the rest; however, it's hard to tell whether this is the new normal or if this is a temporary blip compared to conventional wisdom. Again, I also have to point out (not necessarily to you btw : ) that Bernie has always over performed in caucus states so as long as Bernie is within a few points of first place in the polling average, you can almost guarantee he has a chance of winning. 

 

But what is important is to take these polls in the aggregate and just see the general direction candidates are going. Now that the emerson poll has been added to the real clear politics average, Bernie has now surpassed Warren in the national average for the first time since Mid-September (a few weeks before heart attack). Too early to tell because of another debate; however, if the current trend continues (with Bernie and Pete going up and Warren down), it appears that Bernie could be gaining momentum at the right time. Just remember yall. California, the state with the most delegates of all states, will allow voters to mail in their ballots starting on the day of the IOWA caucus. So while the first states matter, the campaign that can best be competitive in these early states and also WIN California is going to have a significant advantage especially if they can run up the margins in california because they'll net more delegates per percentage point (assuming they reach the 15% threshold).