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DMR Iowa Poll: Pete Buttigieg Rockets To The Top As A Clear Frontrunner

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HybridAT

Pete Buttigieg has rocketed to the top of the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll in the latest reshuffling of the top tier of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.

Since September, Buttigieg has risen 16 percentage points among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 25% now saying he is their first choice for president. For the first time in the Register’s Iowa Poll, he bests rivals Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are now clustered in competition for second place and about 10 percentage points behind the South Bend, Indiana, mayor.

Warren, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, led the September Iowa Poll, when 22% said she was their first choice. In this poll, her support slips to 16%. Former Vice President Biden, who led the Register’s first three Iowa Polls of the 2020 caucus cycle, has continued to slide, falling 5 percentage points to 15%. Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, also garners 15% — a 4 percentage point rise.

Those four candidates began to pull away from the crowded field of Democrats and separate into a top tier of contenders in June's Iowa Poll. Biden, Warren and now Buttigieg have all taken turns atop the poll, with Sanders consistently in the top four.

This is the first poll that shows Buttigieg as a stand-alone front-runner,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “There have been four candidates that have sort of jostled around in a pack together, but he has a sizable lead over the nearest contender — 9 points. So this is a new status for him.”

What's driving Buttigieg's rise

Buttigieg has been among those more directly criticizing Warren’s health care plan recently, and he’s dug in to present himself as the younger, fresher alternative to Biden. His supporters came out in force to the Iowa Democratic Party’s Liberty and Justice dinner Nov. 1, and he’s enjoyed a steady flow of positive news stories highlighting his surge in other rounds of polling.

Selzer said Buttigieg’s support is “distinctively broad” across demographic groups.

When looking at the entire footprint of his support in Iowa, he now leads the field, with 68% saying they are actively considering him in some capacity. That includes the 25% who say he is their first choice, the 14% who name him as their second choice and the 29% who say they are actively considering him.

That lead further "cements Buttigieg's front-runner status" in this poll, Selzer said.

Selzer said Buttigieg’s rise from 1% in the March Iowa Poll to the top of it today reflects the ultimate selling point of Iowa’s caucus system.

“It proves up what I say about the beauty of having a place like Iowa go first, which is anyone can start anywhere and potentially win,” she said. “They have a chance.”

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/11/17/pete-buttigieg-leads-new-iowa-poll-warren-sanders-biden-follow/4198100002/?csp=chromepush

That 9-point lead is staggering. I'm shook. Was expecting he would probably lead but he's just continuing to blow everyone else out of the water in Iowa right now.

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PunkTheFunk

I said he was the one to watch many months ago and everyone laughed at me.

the-office-michael-scott-main.jpg?fit=59

#Marianne2020
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HybridAT
Just now, PunkTheFunk said:

I said he was the one to watch many months ago and everyone laughed at me.

the-office-michael-scott-main.jpg?fit=59

It's getting interesting.

child smile GIF

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ALGAYDO

Still don’t understand why any progressive would support something like him, but good for him. An openly gay man being so high in the polls is amazing, never thought I’d see the day. Hopefully we’ll get a good one next time! 

Gummy Bear ➡️ NOT Marinara ➡️ HOMODRAKE ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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PartySick
5 minutes ago, PunkTheFunk said:

I said he was the one to watch many months ago and everyone laughed at me.

the-office-michael-scott-main.jpg?fit=59

They all laughed at PunkTheFunk when he said a gay could win

They all laughed at Whitney and his cotton gin

Ho ho ho

Who's got the last laugh now

#KeepAmericaGreatAgain 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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PartySick
3 minutes ago, ALGAYDO said:

Still don’t understand why any progressive would support something like him, but good for him. An openly gay man being so high in the polls is amazing, never thought I’d see the day. Hopefully we’ll get a good one next time! 

He's "progressive enough".

Some think Warren and Sanders are too extreme and Biden is aggressively centrist and prone to slip ups (ie "poor kids are just as smart as white kids").

Pete is the best choice for American moderates and left leaning centrists. Harris WAS the go-to replacement for Biden, and she's still my boo, but her plans are disastrous.

#KeepAmericaGreatAgain 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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ItsTommyBitch

I'd wait for his support among Black people to be... a thing before you put any real estate into this beyond the first few states :emma: 

私自身もこの世の中も誰もかれもが, どんなに華やかな人生でも, どんなに悲惨な人生でも, いつかは変貌し, 破壊され、消滅してしまう. すべてがもともとこの世に存在しない一瞬の幻想なのだから
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OG Gaga Stan
3 hours ago, PartySick said:

They all laughed at PunkTheFunk when he said a gay could win

They all laughed at Whitney and his cotton gin

Ho ho ho

Who's got the last laugh now

We're months away from any actual votes being cast, Buttigieg has consolidated all of the millions he's taken from billionaires and other wealthy donors via well-connected Washington insiders and bundlers in the incredibly white state of Iowa, and it's... literally the only state where he's even remotely competitive. :rip: He's double digits behind the rest of the competition in the national polling. 

The user who posted this is a hardcore Buttigieg stan and has been posting literally every single poll that's been good for him in an attempt to make him look like a top tier candidate when, in reality, all these polls really do is indicate that he's attempting to buy Iowa and is banking on wealthy white people to save his campaign. 

Edited by OG Gaga Stan
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PunkTheFunk
2 minutes ago, ItsTommyBitch said:

I'd wait for his support among Black people to be... a thing before you put any real estate into this beyond the first few states :emma: 

Hillary won Iowa in 2016 and became the nominee

Obama won Iowa in 2008 and became the nominee (and president)

John Kerry won Iowa in 2004 and became the nominee

Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 and became the nominee

:vegas:

#Marianne2020
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Eighteen

obama 2.0? i think i just heard that obama was one of the people behind in the larger, general polls, and after he won iowa people really got behind him. 

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OG Gaga Stan
13 minutes ago, Eighteen said:

obama 2.0? i think i just heard that obama was one of the people behind in the larger, general polls, and after he won iowa people really got behind him. 

Obama was a black politician who ran as a progressive and who won over the democratic electorate with massive support from the black community. Buttigieg is a white moderate with a record of 1. firing his town's black police chief because he recorded white officers spouting white-supremacist rhetoric and 2. of gentrifying the portions of his town with black and brown residents, pushing people out of their homes. He also consistently polls at 0-2% with black voters. That comparison makes no sense.

EDIT: And I forgot to mention this entire debacle, where he (just a couple of days ago) claimed that hundreds of black South Carolinians (including three major politicians) backed his plan to pander to black voters when 1. half of them were white people and 2. most of the people he claimed endorsed him and his plan endorsed neither him or his plan at all. His campaign outright lied.

Edited by OG Gaga Stan
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Eighteen
1 minute ago, OG Gaga Stan said:

Obama was a black politician who ran as a progressive and who won over the democratic electorate with massive support from the black community. Buttigieg is a white moderate with a record of firing his town's black police chief because he recorded white officers spouting white-supremacist rhetoric and of gentrifying his portions of his town with black and brown residents, and consistently polls at 0-2% with black voters. That comparison makes no sense.

lol i meant obama 2.0 in the sense that in 2008 obama trailed in the polls too except in iowa. obama then won iowa and immediately became the frontrunner. :triggered:

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ItsTommyBitch
9 minutes ago, PunkTheFunk said:

Hillary won Iowa in 2016 and became the nominee

Obama won Iowa in 2008 and became the nominee (and president)

John Kerry won Iowa in 2004 and became the nominee

Al Gore won Iowa in 2000 and became the nominee

:vegas:

None of those people were polling at 0-1% with black people and losing in all other battleground states outside of the first four

:vegas: 

I'm not trying to be a downer, but media loves cycles, and "Pete Buttigieg surging!" is a fun story for a few days at a time. It doesn't dismiss all of the polling data we have about general election matchups, voter demographics, and expected turn out - none of which has been kind to him :shrug: He's still in a solid 4th position across the country, with Kamala flopping and moving to 5th. The amount of support he would have to drain from Biden and Warren to win the nomination, before it becomes mathematically impossible for him to win enough delegates to be the nominee is a very high bar. Not impossible, but very very improbable given some kind of major scandal or amazing win or hit in a debate or town hall or something that is able to last for months. Obama did win Iowa and go on to be the nominee, but I've already discussed in length why that happened, the conditions that led up to it, and how they dont seem to be in force at all here. Pundits on MSM LOVE the "Iowa = you win" narrative, but its short sighted and clickbait.

Support him if you want - volunteer for him, get him more name recognition. But be cautiously optimistic, it just isn't very practical to throw your money behind a candidate that is uniquely unable to capture the third largest voting bloc in America after Latinos (who will surpass black people for the first time in 2020 by about 2 million potential voters.) He's not doing great there either.

 

Edited by ItsTommyBitch
私自身もこの世の中も誰もかれもが, どんなに華やかな人生でも, どんなに悲惨な人生でも, いつかは変貌し, 破壊され、消滅してしまう. すべてがもともとこの世に存在しない一瞬の幻想なのだから
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