mmmmonster 137 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Locks: - AOTY - Compilation Soundtrack Possible: - ARUTW (Pop Solo, SOTY) - INLA (Best Song Written for Visual Media) I would love for ARUTW to be recognized in every category it's going for, but there's a lot of competition this year and over one year old, and I am a bit of a cynic... I hope I'm wrong! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChromaticPrincess 1,346 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Will we have to worry about Lover or nah? ✨oh the lights dim while we’re dancing yeah the floor is shaking in this disco heaven✨ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doncho 27,241 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Lock: Soundtrack Very possible:Pop Solo, Song Visual Media, AOTY Long shot: SOTY, ROTY Not happening: Pop Duo If I ll have to say right now, I would say 3 noms: Soundtrack, Pop solo and Visual Media Song. I am not sure about AOTY, but hopefully it can make it Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PACGAGA 1,275 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, PrincessVenus said: Will we have to worry about Lover or nah? NOPE. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Hybrid 11,049 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Nothing probably, maybe song/soundtrack for visual media No family’s safe when I sashay Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradley 59,245 Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 A Star Is Born is definitely getting an Album of the Year nomination. I get that Song of the Year for ARUTW is a bit far-fetched cause of its limited commercial success, but ASIB as an album was monstrous and gigantic both critically and commercially. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Velvet 10,988 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 On 10/23/2019 at 10:30 PM, Bradley said: A Star Is Born: AOTY, Compilation Soundtrack Always Remember Us This Way: SOTY, ROTY, Pop Solo Performance I’ll Never Love Again: Pop Duo/Group Perf, Song for Visual Media AOTY: A Star is Born | Biggest contenders (submitted) : Cuz I Love You, Lover, Homecoming, thank u, next, When We Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? (this was a really big year for women) Possibility to win: 75% | Possibility to get nominated: 99% Compilation Soundtrack: A Star is Born | Biggest contenders: N/A Possibility to win: 100% | Possibility to get nominated: 100% SOTY: ARUTW | Biggest contenders: Truth Hurts, Lover Possibility to win: 50% | Possibility to get nominated: 65% ROTY: ARUTW | Biggest contenders: 7 rings, Beautiful People, Old Town Road, bad guy Possibility to win: 40% | Possibility to get nominated: 70% Pop Solo: ARUTW | Biggest contenders: YNTCD, thank u, next, bad guy, Never Really Over Possibility to win: 75% | Possibility to get nominated: 100% Pop Duo/ Group: INLA | Biggest contenders: Boy With Luv, Sucker, Señorita Possibility to win: 90% | Possibility to get nominated: 100% Visual Media: INLA | Biggest contenders: N/A Possibility to win: 100% | Possibility to get nominated: 100% I'm like some kind of supernova Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Velvet 10,988 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 10 hours ago, PrincessVenus said: Will we have to worry about Lover or nah? No, if we are going with Pop Solo because You Need to Calm Down was submitted instead, however for AOTY, we will need to worry. It was commercially and critically successful in this measure. I'm like some kind of supernova Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
PACGAGA 1,275 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Pink Plastique said: No, if we are going with Pop Solo because You Need to Calm Down was submitted instead, however for AOTY, we will need to worry. It was commercially and critically successful in this measure. But came and went after the first week. I’m not gunning for Lover in aoty because there were many missed opportunities here. Lover didn’t produce a BIIIIG hit. Only moderate ones that were cute but nothing huge. Her sales compared to her last ones got worse with more hype and (pointless) promotion I’ve ever seen from Taylor. Lovers Metacritic score is only a 2 points higher than 1989, but still an “average” score. There was nothing special about this album and nothing that girls like Billie and Ariana didn’t have as well. Shockingly, both of these girls are doing better than Taylor when people were saying she was supposed to DEFINE 2019 and OUTSELL EVERYONE!! But that didn’t happen. She’s still a “big” seller because she’s Taylor, but Lover is an underperformance, she was expected to do so much and she didn’t. If this album gets in aoty it’s because of her name and because they didn’t nominate her with Reputation, as most articles have been saying. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChromaticPrincess 1,346 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 9 hours ago, PACGAGA said: But came and went after the first week. I’m not gunning for Lover in aoty because there were many missed opportunities here. Lover didn’t produce a BIIIIG hit. Only moderate ones that were cute but nothing huge. Her sales compared to her last ones got worse with more hype and (pointless) promotion I’ve ever seen from Taylor. Lovers Metacritic score is only a 2 points higher than 1989, but still an “average” score. There was nothing special about this album and nothing that girls like Billie and Ariana didn’t have as well. Shockingly, both of these girls are doing better than Taylor when people were saying she was supposed to DEFINE 2019 and OUTSELL EVERYONE!! But that didn’t happen. She’s still a “big” seller because she’s Taylor, but Lover is an underperformance, she was expected to do so much and she didn’t. If this album gets in aoty it’s because of her name and because they didn’t nominate her with Reputation, as most articles have been saying. Reputation honestly deserved it way more than Lover does ✨oh the lights dim while we’re dancing yeah the floor is shaking in this disco heaven✨ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen 30,431 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I think she will get noms for ASIB AOTY ASIB Soundtrack INLA Song for Visual Media Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacs vs looser 4,382 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Honestly, this is the most realistic we can expect: Best Compilation Soundtrack for Visual Media - A Star Is Born Best Pop Solo Performance - Always Remember Us This Way Best Song Written for Visual Media - I'll Never Love Again I know everybody here thinks AOTY is on lock, but many music sites have stated it isn't a top contender to even be nominated, so I wouldn't count on it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustJames 1,040 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I'm not sure what publications are saying that AOTY isn't on-lock, but... it is as close to a lock as possible. I think the only true locks in that category are Billie Eilish and ASIB; TUN is nearly guaranteed, as well, but these 3 are so far ahead of the rest of the contenders, it isn't worth discussing. Of course, she'll somehow lose - 4th time - but it held onto the title of best-selling album of 2019 until Lover's release despite having debuted ~9-10 months prior. I have been annoyingly vocal about what happened with ASIB album promo post-Shallow, but there is nothing in the criteria about commercial success, whether that be sales or chart figures. Kasey Musgraves didn't have a Top 40 entry, did she? There are already awards and accolades for music that sell big, and/or land on Billboard for an extended stay. The GRAMMYs are not that- they are, in theory, in existence to reward the artistry and craftsmanship displayed in the industry within the specified timeframe. ASIB's longevity re: sales is important as it is a testament to the universal impact it had on the general public despite it being a movie soundtrack AND despite it having only 1 song that would've been heard on Top 40 radio stations. There is literally no argument against it as the best body of work produced and released during the eligibility period. The "outdated" theme is a non-starter. Why have an eligibility period if you are going to penalize music that is released at any specific point inside the parameters? GRAMMYs are not awarded for the hottest new trend. It is entirely unfair to use the timing of its release against it unless to point out that there could be a subjective bias within the voting panel because of it. Additionally, unlike other 'older' contenders like TUN, the songs have aged like wine and are still streaming at high numbers. Shallow, which should have won SOTY and ROTY even before it had peaked, was 1 of the most incredible moments in music history this year (at least) and its climb to the top of the charts was almost purely organic, driven not by endless promo from an 'it'-girl popstar, but by pure musical contagion. Again, I think it'll lose; but, it checks every legitimate, and even most illegitimate, reasons typically given for a winning album: 1) Its sales and streams show that it broke through into the general public's consciousness for a prolonged timeframe 2) Its success was despite it being from a non-traditional category; it is not a Pop album, it is a movie soundtrack that should have only resonated with those who saw, and liked, the movie 3) The artist has the distinction of being both a snubbed AND legacy nominee at this stage of her career 4) The songs were, in majority, written by the main performing artist on it 5) It has a 'feel good' story arc with the comeback of Lady Gaga through a role in an Oscar-winning film culminating with an iconic performance of its lead hit song, propelling it to #1 on Billboard Hot 100 4 months after its previous peak 6) It explores several genres with a POV - Pop, Country, Folk, Grassroots 7) A diverse set of songs - Shallow (#1), INLA (#36), ARUTW (#41) - all broke into the higher portion of the Hot 100, the latter two without full promotional backing of a typical single released from an LP (while other non-singles charted like ITA?) Sigh. I'll stop here regarding AOTY. But, how can anyone say that ASIB is not a better artistic product than its closest competitors from Billie, Ariana, and Lizzo? I find Lizzo's hype re: GRAMMYs (not in general) uncomfortable given that 'Truth Hurts' shouldn't be eligible for any nomination (it is 2+ years old) and because it has been allowed, an album she released with no relevance to it is being considered for awards in both AOTY and Pop Vocal Album. TUN was the definition of a fad, was a step down artistically from previous albums, had questionable lyrical content, and has aged badly. Billie's album, though not my taste, certainly resonated and was a breakthrough and change in the sound of the current landscape. But, her releases from it have been underwhelming. Similarly, Lover sold well but with a quick descent and mediocre singles. I don't see where the competition is coming from. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustJames 1,040 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 As a reminder, both INLA and ARUTW were official releases, even if they didn't get the full promo we know they deserved. Both charted in the top 50 of the Billboard Hot 100, and ARUTW has had incredible streaming success. It would be the top contender for SOTY and Pop Vocal had Bradley left the stage and Gaga sung a solo of it after Shallow (Oscars). IMO, the noms should be: 1. AOTY - ASIB (win) 2. SOTY - ARUTW 3. Pop Vocal - ARUTW (win) 4. Pop Duo - INLA 5. Best Compilation - ASIB (win) 6. Best Song for Digital Media - INLA (win) The ones in bold are what I am actually predicting, though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Campana 15,284 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I just realised Gaga won both Pop Solo (Joanne) and Pop Duo (Shallow) this year. Kinda unlikely for her to repeat. Who has won consecutively in these categories? Does it matter? Damage is done Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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