Stagflation... Fed Really Worried It Will Happen Under Trump

[LeoFameMonster 1,592]

and when a dem comes into office and all the economic downfall from trump happens in their presidency idiots will think its dem and will vote Republican and the cycle will continue. 

[Economy 53,068]

1 hour ago, LeoFameMonster said:

and when a dem comes into office and all the economic downfall from trump happens in their presidency idiots will think its dem and will vote Republican and the cycle will continue. 

I guess it depends how long it takes to happen... If it happens

 

The Federal Reserve (US Central Bank) is not saying stagflation will happen. ATM they are merely concerned about the possible prospect

 

Strong Economy = more inflationary pressures and Fed has to raise rates to fight it

 

Weak economy = less inflationary pressures and needs lower rates to keep it stable plus low rates stimulate economy too

 

Stagflation = weak growth needing low rates but high inflation needing higher rates. This anomaly makes proper monetary policy impossible to set

 

The fed is concerned that tarrifs will weaken economy but higher inflation won't let them cut rates and they could be stuck in a position where raising or lowering rates are both bad in different ways

 

[Woolfsmck 2,763]

7 hours ago, Delusional Aura said:

Mild recession? Did you even read what the OP? This is a stagflation that you're endorsing just so Trump could loose the election. The fact you don't even know the difference is alarming. And at this point, you clearly don't understand economics as a whole and it makes no sense continuing this conversation. With that I stand by what I said. You are heartless and no better than trump and his policies, if you think a stagflation is just a little blimp or will cause a mild recession. 

Overall Trump impact is negative,  I agree..however

If the problems with China trade can be resolved, it will be worth it...

[Delusional Aura 5,129]

1 hour ago, Woolfsmck said:

Overall Trump impact is negative,  I agree..however

If the problems with China trade can be resolved, it will be worth it...

Exactly, this is why I'm not gonna be praying for the economy to crash like the user I replied too. It's a huge risk taken which I don't agree with because Trump is waring with everyone. The fool should have united with Canada, Mexico and Europe to tackle China but he is so retarded that he wants to go after everyone at the same time. This is irresponsible and disgusting because he isn't thinking about low income Americans. 

[Economy 53,068]

2 minutes ago, Delusional Aura said:

Exactly, this is why I'm not gonna be praying for the economy to crash like the user I replied too. It's a huge risk taken which I don't agree with because Trump is waring with everyone. The fool should have united with Canada, Mexico and Europe to tackle China but he is so retarded that he wants to go after everyone at the same time. This is irresponsible and disgusting because he isn't thinking about low income Americans. 

Hes very patriotic and so arrogant he thinks America is more powerful alone than the entire rest of the world combined

 

Im not surprised he finally lifted steel tarrifs on Canada after it was shown American companies were hurting more than Canadian steel makers

 

And Canada buys $2 Billion more in steel from the US than what America buys from us so even by his logic that trade deficits say that a trade relationship is good or bad it still made no sense

 

Btw, very little if the trade balance actually has anything to do with how deals are made or written. Unless it's an exeptionally poor deal, were talking a small difference

 

US trade deficits have more to do with the bloated military and the Government deficits

 

If u want I can explain why that is but if not I won't bother to type it all out

 

[Delusional Aura 5,129]

1 hour ago, Economy said:

 

Im not surprised he finally lifted steel tarrifs on Canada after it was shown American companies were hurting more than Canadian 

 

Btw, very little if the trade balance actually has anything to do with how deals are made or written. Unless it's an exeptionally poor deal, were talking a small difference

 

US trade deficits have more to do with the bloated military and the Government deficits

 

If u want I can explain why that is but if not I won't bother to type it all out

 

I'm not surprised he lifted the tarrifs on Canada either. I completely agree with you on the bloated military and government deficits. 

I really wanted Trump to unite with our allies and take on China because, this would put China in a difficult situation. He could have gone after the EU, Mexico and Canada after dealing with China. His strategy is messy and I wonder if the Republicans are deliberately advising him stupidly or if he himself is just that stupid. I can't understand it whatsoever. 

It just like how recently he tweeted about the LGBT community but has for the last 2 years approving and supporting legislation that continues to marginalize us. Like WTF????????? He is so two-faced and unpredictable that it hurts. 

[Economy 53,068]

5 hours ago, Delusional Aura said:

I'm not surprised he lifted the tarrifs on Canada either. I completely agree with you on the bloated military and government deficits. 

I really wanted Trump to unite with our allies and take on China because, this would put China in a difficult situation. He could have gone after the EU, Mexico and Canada after dealing with China. His strategy is messy and I wonder if the Republicans are deliberately advising him stupidly or if he himself is just that stupid. I can't understand it whatsoever. 

It just like how recently he tweeted about the LGBT community but has for the last 2 years approving and supporting legislation that continues to marginalize us. Like WTF????????? He is so two-faced and unpredictable that it hurts. 

Yeah. Ppl don't seem to get it but a huge military steals a lot of labor that cannot be used to make industrial goods or services in the private sector to sell or export. Those Millions of military soldiers and other related military personnel do nothing industrialy productive but they still gotta eat and consume goods and many will be imported 

 

Private companies that make weaponry for military also count in this because they are using up labor and resources for something neither the general population will ever consume nor do they export much of this equipment

 

Also Government deficits... If you year after year you put more wealth into the economy  than you take out with taxes (especially when the deficits are large), you give the economy the ability to consume beyond what its natural productive capacity would allow if it wasn't getting a constant recapitalization of more money coming in from the government than taken

 

I have a pretty deep understanding of economics and I guarantee u those 2 factors are the biggest reasons the US has such large trade deficits

 

Is it possible a few trade deals are unfair to the US? Maybe, I don't know the technicalities of these deals well enough to comment there, they are thousands of pages long with dozens and dozens of chapters

 

But I can guarantee u bad trade deals  (even if they were as bad as Trump suggested and he wasn't exxagerating) would not explain trade deficits of $500 Billion annually or more.

[BOMSHELL 2,708]

On 6/1/2019 at 12:08 PM, Timmers said:

I'm convinced he's purposefully setting America up to ruin the lives of the bottom 60%

Lower middle class

[Fresco 1,688]

I heard that the bond market is pricing in a 60% probability of interest rate reductions before the end of the year. I don't have a reference, it was verbal news.  The yield curves have inverted twice which is an early signal of recession.  Worry can be a self-fulfilling prophesy about this stuff. Because corporations and people stop spending as much when they get worried.  

 

[Fresco 1,688]

Today it's being reported as a 97% chance of interest rate cut by the end of the year.

[Economy 53,068]

12 hours ago, Sky Juil said:

I heard that the bond market is pricing in a 60% probability of interest rate reductions before the end of the year. I don't have a reference, it was verbal news.  The yield curves have inverted twice which is an early signal of recession.  Worry can be a self-fulfilling prophesy about this stuff. Because corporations and people stop spending as much when they get worried.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Sky Juil said:

Today it's being reported as a 97% chance of interest rate cut by the end of the year.

I heard about the 50% to 60% but dam now it's updated to 97%

 

Were 10 years into an expansion were not supposed to be having 10 year bonds yields trading at 2.2% or be talking about cutting rates when unemployment is at a 40 year low

 

Trump is gonna ruin what could be a great time for the US economy

 

Wages are FINALLY rising a bit faster than inflation which means the average American is finally starting to reap the benefits of the string US economy not just the rich

 

And what does Trump do? Find every possible way to sabatoge it

[Woolfsmck 2,763]

Needle could shift at any moment  tho...Trumps trade and immigration policy shifts are unpredictable.

[Economy 53,068]

3 minutes ago, Woolfsmck said:

Needle could shift at any moment  tho...Trumps trade and immigration policy shifts are unpredictable.

That's the thing. It's too all over the place to predict