Born This Way: The Uncertainty Race

[HorusRa2 4,978]

Meh. Not what I hoped for but I’m happy Electric Chapel stuck in so long. 

[rumours 45,521]

@GagaInTheZone @FinnishGypsy @LADYGAGASHOOCK @GypsyBabe @The Louvre @Oriane @loathereality @PerfectCure @calmar @sethrb101 @andrew23 @KinneyUnderYou @Live4TheARTPOP @That J @maxblac @StarryNight @PerfectGUY @Smother Em Eh @ARTPOPSTER @Modern Ecstacy @highongaga @datlastfam @Punktious @ARPiT @lucca @Sherlock112 @DaftFameMonster @teawhore @Lonely Lolita @badgirlmeat @lost in limbo@Gagalderone @mister max @Kween@blackcoffee @JGD @Jeroen Bloeming @radioactive @AlexKing4 @PrincessVenus @Blue Madonna @raginchristians  @warholagaga @Marges9 @Trepadation @AlejandroooO @HorusRa2 @Lana Del Gay

Now, it is time for the Suitcase Ceremony. Momentarily, I will make a poll with 4 items that are randomly assigned to one of the 4 suitcases. The poll will be active for approximately an hour, and whatever is inside the winning suitcase will be applied to Round 10. Let's see where uncertainty leads us...

 

Get Ready to Vote!

 

The following items (listed in no particular order) are contained in the various suitcases:

~ The Uncertainty Race's host is required to publish the exact rankings (specific placements) of the songs for the last 2 rounds in the thread.

~ Only the votes of odd numbered voters (1,3,5, etc.) will count towards the songs' total scores. Even numbered voters' scores will not be included in the calculation for the songs' total scores in Round 10.

~ The Bottom Two will offer themselves as tribute in Round 10 (Double Elimination). In return, for each song that leaves in Round 10, one eliminated song will return. Each eliminated song will be given a random number between 1-10. Please choose two random numbers in that interval and include them in your PM.

~ Round 10 will go on as normal (no changes to format)

 

Voting will close in about 30. Be sure to vote!

Submissions for Round 10 will be open after the Suitcase Ceremony has concluded

[rumours 45,521]

6 minutes ago, calmar said:

EDIT: Looking forward to seeing the updated chart

Will post it in just a moment

I look forward to hearing your analysis/predictions

[calmar 22,037]

2 minutes ago, Rumours1977 said:

~ The Bottom Two will offer themselves as tribute in Round 10 (Double Elimination). In return, for each song that leaves in Round 10, one eliminated song will return. Each eliminated song will be given a random number between 1-10. Please choose two random numbers in that interval and include them in your PM.

[rumours 45,521]

Here is the Updated Results Chart:

Spoiler

@calmar

 

[calmar 22,037]

So now that HML is back in the game, the highest scoring eliminated song as per my rankings is Electric Chapel, at 1.667. If HML were eliminated next round though it would become the lowest scoring song (0.900), which is... a shame for it. It better do well.

Now the closest song to plain Jane is Judas, with all rounds except 8 being safe. The song with the most points atm is Edge of Glory, followed by Bloody Mary and Marry the Night; funnily enough, the top 3 songs from Round 9. EoG is only three points away from beating the score of Applause from the ARTPOP Uncertainty Race, which was the highest-scoring song (in raw points) of that game. It has a while to go before it can beat the (overall) score of the song ARTPOP, though.

EDIT: I just noticed that now every song that has ever won a round in the BTW Uncertainty Race is still in the game; and all songs except BTW and Judas which have ever been in the Bottom 3 have been eliminated.

[Oriane 20,091]

Clearly I'm just going to vote for my favorite songs now.

[rumours 45,521]

3 minutes ago, calmar said:

So now that HML is back in the game, the highest scoring eliminated song as per my rankings is Electric Chapel, at 1.667. If HML were eliminated next round though it would become the lowest scoring song (0.900), which is... a shame for it. It better do well.

Now the closest song to plain Jane is Judas, with all rounds except 8 being safe. The song with the most points atm is Edge of Glory, followed by Bloody Mary and Marry the Night; funnily enough, the top 3 songs from Round 9. EoG is only three points away from beating the score of Applause from the ARTPOP Uncertainty Race, which was the highest-scoring song (in raw points) of that game. It has a while to go before it can beat the (overall) score of the song ARTPOP, though.

ARTPOP's success in ARTPOP: The Uncertainty Rate was absolutely insane.

 

It does seem like a lot of the songs left have good track records. Would you say BTW (in terms of competition) is more or less competitive than ARTPOP at the same point (final 7)?

[calmar 22,037]

6 minutes ago, Rumours1977 said:

 ARTPOP's success in ARTPOP: The Uncertainty Rate was absolutely insane.

  

It does seem like a lot of the songs left have good track records. Would you say BTW (in terms of competition) is more or less competitive than ARTPOP at the same point (final 7)?

Yeah. As a reminder, ARTPOP had a score of 29 points and left in Round 8, giving it 3.625 points, a record which still stands. If Edge of Glory, the current raw highest-scoring song in the BTW UR, left next round, it would have 3.100 points (31/10), even though, like I mentioned, it could soon well surpass Applause as the highest raw-scoring song so far.

Born This Way has 22 points so far as per my calculations, meaning if it were eliminated in the next round, it would have a score of 2.200, which would have given it 6th place in the ARTPOP competition. It's not doing poorly, but it's not doing amazingly great either. Then again, the scores I have for ARTPOP are considering the competition as a whole; in the BTW race so far, BTW the song is number 4, and even if it won next round ( + 5) and the top three were all safe ( + 2), it still wouldn't break into the top 3. 

I'll need to dig up the ARTPOP chart to calculate scores from non-final rounds there.

[calmar 22,037]

So there were 7 songs still in the race in Round 7 of ARTPOP. ARTPOP had 24 raw points ( = 3.429); BTW currently has 22 ( = 2.444), so ARTPOP was doing better in terms of both scores I keep track of. Notably, even though EoG, Bloody Mary, and MtN are pretty dang successful so far, none of them currently have reached the overall score that ARTPOP had three rounds prior.

EDIT: Also note that depending on the metric, ARTPOP had three winners: Mary Jane Holland (the actual winner based on Rumours1977's metrics), Applause (raw calmar score) and ARTPOP (overall calmar score).

[rumours 45,521]

5 minutes ago, calmar said:

Yeah. As a reminder, ARTPOP had a score of 29 points and left in Round 8, giving it 3.625 points, a record which still stands. If Edge of Glory, the current raw highest-scoring song in the BTW UR, left next round, it would have 3.100 points (31/10), even though, like I mentioned, it could soon well surpass Applause as the highest raw-scoring song so far.

Born This Way has 22 points so far as per my calculations, meaning if it were eliminated in the next round, it would have a score of 2.200, which would have given it 6th place in the ARTPOP competition. It's not doing poorly, but it's not doing amazingly great either. Then again, the scores I have for ARTPOP are considering the competition as a whole; in the BTW race so far, BTW the song is number 4, and even if it won next round ( + 5) and the top three were all safe ( + 2), it still wouldn't break into the top 3. 

I'll need to dig up the ARTPOP chart to calculate scores from non-final rounds there.

I meant ARTPOP the album and BTW the album.

I was really asking about the distribution of points in your system for all the songs in relation to the competition. For example, is the competition (with 7 songs left) tighter in your opinion than ARTPOP: The Uncertainty Race at the same point?

Sorry for not asking my question well.

[rumours 45,521]

@GagaInTheZone @FinnishGypsy @LADYGAGASHOOCK @GypsyBabe @The Louvre @Oriane @loathereality @PerfectCure @calmar @sethrb101 @andrew23 @KinneyUnderYou @Live4TheARTPOP @That J @maxblac @StarryNight @PerfectGUY @Smother Em Eh @ARTPOPSTER @Modern Ecstacy @highongaga @datlastfam @Punktious @ARPiT @lucca @Sherlock112 @DaftFameMonster @teawhore @Lonely Lolita @badgirlmeat @lost in limbo@Gagalderone @mister max @Kween@blackcoffee @JGD @Jeroen Bloeming @radioactive @AlexKing4 @PrincessVenus @Blue Madonna @raginchristians  @warholagaga @Marges9 @Trepadation @AlejandroooO @HorusRa2 @Lana Del Gay

Suitcase #2 was chosen which means...

Spoiler

~ The Uncertainty Race's host is required to publish the exact rankings (specific placements) of the songs for the last 2 rounds in the thread.

Voting for Round 10 is NOW OPEN!!

Voting Closes for Round 10 around 3:00PM PM EDT tomorrow (Sept 2).

The Ceremony for Round 10 will begin around 4:30PM EDT (8:30PM UTC) tomorrow Sept 2.

[calmar 22,037]

6 minutes ago, Rumours1977 said:

For example, is the competition (with 7 songs left) tighter in your opinion than ARTPOP: The Uncertainty Race at the same point?

Oh, for all the songs

Distribution of raw points in ARTPOP, round 7 (7 songs left): 12 (Dope) - 24 (ARTPOP) {12}
Distribution of overall score in ARTPOP, round 7: 1.714 ~ 3.429 {1.715}

Distribution of raw points in BTW, round 9 (7 songs left): 9 (Heavy Metal Lover) - 31 (Edge of Glory) {22}
Distribution of overall score in BTW, round 9: 1.000 - 3.444 {2.444}

So ARTPOP was tighter at this point. But that is because HML came back before MJH came back in ARTPOP. If you ignore HML, which is kind of an outlier, it becomes {14} and {1.540}; not as tight in raw points, but tighter in overall score.

[rumours 45,521]

2 minutes ago, calmar said:

Oh, for all the songs

Distribution of raw points in ARTPOP, round 7 (7 songs left): 12 (Dope) - 24 (ARTPOP) {12}
Distribution of overall score in ARTPOP, round 7: 1.714 ~ 3.429 {1.715}

Distribution of raw points in BTW, round 9 (7 songs left): 9 (Heavy Metal Lover) - 31 (Edge of Glory) {22}
Distribution of overall score in BTW, round 9: 1.000 - 3.444 {2.444}

So ARTPOP was tighter at this point. But that is because HML came back before MJH came back in ARTPOP. If you ignore HML, which is kind of an outlier, it becomes {14} and {1.540}; not as tight in raw points, but tighter in overall score.

Cool. Thanks for the explanation

[rumours 45,521]

Per the Suitcase Ceremony, here are the specific placements in Rounds 8&9:

Use that information as you see fit...