Hollywood News's Oscar predictions for A Star Is Born

[sipthistea 21,099]

27 minutes ago, PunkTheFunk said:

While it's highly unlikely, can you imagine if Gaga won 2 Oscars in the same night? 

Madonna and her fans would be triggered 

[REALITY 76,758]

I really hope that she wins something, but honestly, we should all be happy for a nomination too. A nomination is still a really big deal, so if she does get nominated—which I'm sure she will—we should be just as excited for that. 

[freebit 6,240]

I've never followed the Oscars race this closely, so I wonder if it's already pretty much settled who the possible candidates are by this time or not? I haven't the time to scroll through all archives from all predictors, so I only looked at last years race. I'm scrolling through 2018 Awards Watch archives, and the only two who are consistently on their charts from summer '17 up until Oscar night was Meryl for The Post, and Frances for Three Billboards. Saoirse came into their pool of predictions in August; Margot & I, Tonya were on the radar, but she didn't come up as a serious top contender until October post TIFF (they weren't sure when I, Tonya was actually getting released until its TIFF premiere). Sally Hawkins was on the list starting from the bottom 16 in July, zooming to top ten a month later.  For Hollywood News, their predictions were about the same as AW (only accurate about Meryl & Frances this early on, though Saoirse is #12 on their "Next in Line" list). 

I can only hope that the good reviews keep coming in. It feels like half of Hollywood has already seen it, so hopefully it reviews well from critics too. I also hope the fans that were at TIFF for Five Foot Two show out this year for ASIB and get it the People's Choice. Three Billboards won last year, with I, Tonya as the runner-up. 

[2HB 536]

1 hour ago, freebit said:

I've never followed the Oscars race this closely, so I wonder if it's already pretty much settled who the possible candidates are by this time or not? I haven't the time to scroll through all archives from all predictors, so I only looked at last years race. I'm scrolling through 2018 Awards Watch archives, and the only two who are consistently on their charts from summer '17 up until Oscar night was Meryl for The Post, and Frances for Three Billboards. Saoirse came into their pool of predictions in August; Margot & I, Tonya were on the radar, but she didn't come up as a serious top contender until October post TIFF (they weren't sure when I, Tonya was actually getting released until its TIFF premiere). Sally Hawkins was on the list starting from the bottom 16 in July, zooming to top ten a month later.  For Hollywood News, their predictions were about the same as AW (only accurate about Meryl & Frances this early on, though Saoirse is #12 on their "Next in Line" list). 

I can only hope that the good reviews keep coming in. It feels like half of Hollywood has already seen it, so hopefully it reviews well from critics too. I also hope the fans that were at TIFF for Five Foot Two show out this year for ASIB and get it the People's Choice. Three Billboards won last year, with I, Tonya as the runner-up. 

The predictions at this time are mostly based on the trailer, the campaign strategies (aka the festivals they’re going to) and the general buzz. They may very likely vary after the films’ premiere. Some may be panned by the critics whereas some new contenders would emerge.  I’d say it’ll be more accurate after Venice and Toronto.

It’s actually fun to watch this rollercoaster ride.especially with our fave in it.

[Bradley 59,157]

2 hours ago, freebit said:

I've never followed the Oscars race this closely, so I wonder if it's already pretty much settled who the possible candidates are by this time or not? I haven't the time to scroll through all archives from all predictors, so I only looked at last years race. I'm scrolling through 2018 Awards Watch archives, and the only two who are consistently on their charts from summer '17 up until Oscar night was Meryl for The Post, and Frances for Three Billboards. Saoirse came into their pool of predictions in August; Margot & I, Tonya were on the radar, but she didn't come up as a serious top contender until October post TIFF (they weren't sure when I, Tonya was actually getting released until its TIFF premiere). Sally Hawkins was on the list starting from the bottom 16 in July, zooming to top ten a month later.  For Hollywood News, their predictions were about the same as AW (only accurate about Meryl & Frances this early on, though Saoirse is #12 on their "Next in Line" list). 

I can only hope that the good reviews keep coming in. It feels like half of Hollywood has already seen it, so hopefully it reviews well from critics too. I also hope the fans that were at TIFF for Five Foot Two show out this year for ASIB and get it the People's Choice. Three Billboards won last year, with I, Tonya as the runner-up. 

You're right. Which is why it's important for Gaga to keep on impressing and receive good reviews after the premieres. If she receives mixed reviews and someone else in the industry receives rave reviews, she could very well be pushed down on the prediction lists.

[mamo 19,099]

On 8/11/2018 at 2:39 PM, Bradley said:

Whose reviews? Like professional reviews or?

yes first impressions from movie critics! 

[freebit 6,240]

On 8/12/2018 at 2:00 AM, JorgitoShan said:

The predictions at this time are mostly based on the trailer, the campaign strategies (aka the festivals they’re going to) and the general buzz. They may very likely vary after the films’ premiere. Some may be panned by the critics whereas some new contenders would emerge.  I’d say it’ll be more accurate after Venice and Toronto.

It’s actually fun to watch this rollercoaster ride.especially with our fave in it.

 

On 8/12/2018 at 3:01 AM, Bradley said:

You're right. Which is why it's important for Gaga to keep on impressing and receive good reviews after the premieres. If she receives mixed reviews and someone else in the industry receives rave reviews, she could very well be pushed down on the prediction lists.

I'm going to be watching her go up and down that Awards Watch prediction pool until fall.  I hope she can get into BA. A nomination would be huge for her. I'm so nervous and skeptical of her chances. I've been watching this YouTube series about the Best Actress category and how and why each winner won, and the Cher one gave me so much hope for her, and it shows that it helps to have a personal narrative:

However, I also feel like the Academy might just end up blocking her out and going for established actresses. It seems that they can be snobbish like that. They ignored Courtney Love & Madge back in the 90s for example.  Cher first got a nomination for Supporting Actress which seems less competitive and more open, then worked her way up. Hoping for a miracle nomination for our fave. 

[2HB 536]

2 hours ago, freebit said:

 

I'm going to be watching her go up and down that Awards Watch prediction pool until fall.  I hope she can get into BA. A nomination would be huge for her. I'm so nervous and skeptical of her chances. I've been watching this YouTube series about the Best Actress category and how and why each winner won, and the Cher one gave me so much hope for her, and it shows that it helps to have a personal narrative:

However, I also feel like the Academy might just end up blocking her out and going for established actresses. It seems that they can be snobbish like that. They ignored Courtney Love & Madge back in the 90s for example.  Cher first got a nomination for Supporting Actress which seems less competitive and more open, then worked her way up. Hoping for a miracle nomination for our fave. 

Yes I’ve been following this channel too. Very informative.

Personally speaking I’m skeptical of her pulling off a Cher situation this year, for Cher had already established herself as a serious actress b4 with a handful of acclaimed performances (I think she had won the Best Actress at Cannes or something), whereas Gaga is a total newcomer to Hollywood and is still to be accepted.

A fairer comparison may be with Barbra, who won Best Actress for her debut role in Funny Girl, tho Idk exactly how she pulled it off. 

I guess we’ll just have to wait n see.

[S0436 10,215]

I’d be happy with a nom for BA, win for orig song and over $250millon domestic gross making her the most successful pop star in a single movie.

[Bradley 59,157]

48 minutes ago, S0436 said:

I’d be happy with a nom for BA, win for orig song and over $250millon domestic gross making her the most successful pop star in a single movie.

$250 million domestic gross is just too unrealistic. And those are really high standards of achievements.

[S0436 10,215]

20 minutes ago, Bradley said:

$250 million domestic gross is just too unrealistic. And those are really high standards of achievements.

Hence why I said “I’d be happy”.  Anything less then obviously there will be some disappointment.  Bradley Cooper has been in 3 movies as a physical actor that made over $250m domestically, so you never know.

[Bradley 59,157]

9 minutes ago, S0436 said:

Hence why I said “I’d be happy”.  Anything less then obviously there will be some disappointment.  Bradley Cooper has been in 3 movies as a physical actor that made over $250m domestically, so you never know.

I feel like you have confused worldwide gross and domestic gross. $250 million in America alone is impossible.

And if you end up being disappointed, it's not because they underperformed, it's because you have set unrealistic expectations in the first place.

American Hustle grossed $250 million worldwide, Silver Linings Playbook grossed $231 million worldwide.

Where did you get the idea that these were domestic gross?

[Vitleysingur 13,789]

1 hour ago, S0436 said:

I’d be happy with a nom for BA, win for orig song and over $250millon domestic gross making her the most successful pop star in a single movie.

You do realize it's not a A Thor Is Born type of movie, right?

Not to mention Thor only earned $181.0 million in North America according to Wiki.

[S0436 10,215]

11 minutes ago, Bradley said:

I feel like you have confused worldwide gross and domestic gross. $250 million in America alone is impossible.

And if you end up being disappointed, it's not because they underperformed, it's because you have set unrealistic expectations in the first place.

American Hustle grossed $250 million worldwide, Silver Linings Playbook grossed $231 million worldwide.

Where did you get the idea that these were domestic gross?

Well who said I was looking at those two movies?

American Sniper was rated R with a relatively moderate budget of $58.8million and grossed $350m in the US and $197m foreign = $547m worldwide.

Two of The Hangover franchisees made over $250million domestically on budgets of under $80m and both rated R. 

All on WB.  So maybe Cooper could continue to be the king of R rated movies on WB!

[Miky 9,491]

Predictions don't mean ****. Remember TIHTY? Yeah...