Klou 2,414 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 As some of you may know, Billboard changed their US Hot 100 rules in March of this year. For those that want more info from their site regarding the change, you can go here: http://www.billboard...006453952.story Now some of you may not be good at math or understand the logic completely, so I'll try my best to make it simple first and then explain in detail afterwards for those that want the nitty gritty. Basically, the Hot 100 now focuses more on Airplay and less on Digital Sales while also giving streaming more of an edge. This is bad for Gaga because it would mean she has to have even MORE digital sales in her first week to make a #1 debut. It's hard to accrue a good amount of AirPlay in the first week and streaming would be limited as well. If I had to bet my money on whether Gaga will debut at #1 or not, I would bet my money in her favor, but not with absolute certainty like I would have before. I did some calculations on Judas as an example... If she were to debut Judas now with the same statistics, it would debut around #16. Because of the low AirPlay and low streaming, it would push it out of the top 10. Justin Bieber is also a good example with how he has been charting. He sold over 500K with Boyfriend, but still missed the #1 spot. Also, his other promo singles sold 150K+ in their debut week, but charted around #20, which is rather low considering they were all in the top 5 digital sales for the week. If Gaga has lots of airplay this next era, then she should be fine, but if she doesn't, then she will be screwed. Her debut single needs to sell a massive amount of digital copies, have some airplay, AND streaming to hit the #1 spot. Again, I think she will do it, but it won't be by a landslide like it was before. *This affects all artists, but will negatively impact those who don't have radio backing. It will, in turn, benefit those who seem to have consistent radio backing (Rihanna, Katy Perry, etc.). For Gaga's follow up singles, she will still need that radio support for them to do well. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now for those who want the exact calculations: The Billboard Hot 100 takes Digital Sales and Radio Airplay into consideration (and a small amount of streaming). Before the change, these two parts were about 50/50 in factoring the Hot 100 position. Now, after the change, it's more like 44/56 with digital sales losing out. Also, digital streaming plays more of a factor. The exact calculation for a Hot 100 position is as follows (provided by our own very loved Magoo!): *points = 62% x sales/K + 80% x airplay (A.I. millions) + 5% x on demand streaming/K This amount is then compared to other songs on the chart and ordered appropriately. I calculated Judas as follows: 162(.62) + 14(.80) + 100(.05) = 117 The amount of 117 for Judas would place the song 16th on the chart. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
J e s s e 454 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 :ohno: "They have as much in common as dinosaurs and goldfish: the cracker kind!" - Penelope Garcia Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
00000000 1 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 impressed at the math behind all of this. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamboo 8 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 This impacts everyone negatively though. Rihanna doesn't really get overplayed, except for WFL, and her sales aren't always super high, except for WFL, but anything is possible. That might be why they might be focusing more on dance music with this album. It might benefit Kety though :( Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop Art 1,773 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 I'm sure we'll all buy the single, but since radio counts more, and streaming now plays into it, then I'm guessing we'll have to request it more on radio, while also streaming it on the sites that they factor in. If most of the fans did that, would that not at least somewhat help to compensate for the lower factoring of digital sales? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robotboy 1,700 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 impact gaga negatively? its the same for all artists. and.. who cares? Remember that you are unique. Like everyone else. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klou 2,414 Posted July 13, 2012 Author Share Posted July 13, 2012 This impacts everyone negatively though. Rihanna doesn't really get overplayed, except for WFL, and her sales aren't always super high, except for WFL, but anything is possible. That might be why they might be focusing more on dance music with this album. It might benefit Kety though :( It does impact everyone, but it actually HELPED Where Have You Been reach #5 because it had massive airplay. If Gaga can get airplay on the levels Rihanna gets, then she should be fine, but Rihanna has always edged out Gaga in terms of radio (overall). impact gaga negatively? its the same for all artists. and.. who cares? As I said, it could negatively impact her if she doesn't have good airplay. The charts favor artists who have lots of airplay right now, so if she ends up getting good radio backing, then she will be fine. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kermit the frog 1,853 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 That's bad, but I really don't care anymore. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamboo 8 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 It does impact everyone, but it actually HELPED Where Have You Been reach #5 because it had massive airplay. If Gaga can get airplay on the levels Rihanna gets, then she should be fine, but Rihanna has always edged out Gaga in terms of radio (overall). As I said, it could negatively impact her if she doesn't have good airplay. The charts favor artists who have lots of airplay right now, so if she ends up getting good radio backing, then she will be fine. I guess it really depends on the next era and it will vary from song to song. It will also be negative for Rihanna too because when her singles flop they flop on radio HARD! and they never catch on afterwards. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Americano 31,061 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 She could put it on VEVO as well though. (A lyric video) and try to service it to Rhapsody, etc. first week Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hot Space 14 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 I really don't care about charts. :sweat: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klou 2,414 Posted July 13, 2012 Author Share Posted July 13, 2012 She could put it on VEVO as well though. (A lyric video) and try to service it to Rhapsody, etc. first week Yes please :yes: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Lam 597 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Really well explained thank you for this thread ! If Gaga focus on something more radio friendly, there shouldn't be any problem considering she is still on of the biggest radio queen (Poker Face, Bad Romance... even BTW). And it affects everyone. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAMROD 103,490 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Gaga will be living on the Radio next era. Or at least that's what many hoping for. Beat that Bruno Mars' ass, Gaga! (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ✧*:･ﾟ 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘥𝘰𝘵𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘯𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 (*´艸｀*) ♡♡♡ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EGOT2027 10,791 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 So does billboard now count vevo/youtube, pandora, iheartradio app, and all those? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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